I really hope you followed me in Week 8 because if you did, the rent is paid.
14-1 on the ML last week, the only loss coming to a missed Bears field goal for the win, kept me away from an immaculate week. It was truly something special. Anyways 9-6 ATS and a 25-5 stretch on the ML the past two weeks is a personal hot streak. Updated records with my Inside The Lab’s Podcasts picks and to reflect all my picks since joining Overtime Heroics in Week 3. Just a warning now: after last week, it’s only downhill or perfection from here.
OVERALL: 57-32 SU and 52-36-1 ATS
- LAST WEEK ATS: 9-6
- LAST WEEK SU: 14-1
The 49ers obliterated the Panthers at home and now prepare for a short week with a short trip to Arizona to take on Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. The 49ers (-10) are the largest favorites of the week with the Bills (-9.5) closing hosting the winless Redskins right behind them. The winless Dolphins host the one-win Jets (-3) for another shot at avoiding 0-16. We have early morning football with the Texans (-1.5) playing the Jaguars, but if you miss it, don’t sweat it because everyone is looking forward to Sunday Night Football anyway. The Patriots (-3.5) are at their best ML value of the year (-190) on the road vs. the Ravens on SNF. Lamar Jackson versus the Patriots defense might make you sweat if you’re a fantasy owner. To top off the week, NFC East matchup between the Cowboys (-7.5) and Giants in New Jersey.
Good luck as always and follow on Twitter @VaughnDalzell for more picks and props.
Thursday Night Football Thursday, Oct. 31 (8:20 p.m. ET)
49ers (-10) and Cardinals
The 49ers flexed on the entire league last week, showing what their new offense looks like with Emmanuel Sanders and boy was it impressive. It makes you think did they play the starters too long in the 51-13 win with a short week vs. division opponent Arizona. The Cardinals suffered their first loss since September 29th last week against the Saints with Drew Brees back. The Cardinals managed only nine points all field goals, and the 49ers defense has allowed 11 points per game and 224 total yards. If this wasn’t TNF, I think the 49ers would blow the Cardinals out, but Arizona could strike early. Do away with TNF, please.
Pick: 49ers -10
Prediction: 49ers 30, Cardinals 17
London Game, Sunday, Nov. 3 (9:30 a.m. ET)
Texans (-1.5) vs Jaguars
None of the trends for this game matter since we’re in London. It’s a different type of week, a different kind of preparation, different time zones, and all that. We know what both offenses can do, and we’ve seen what both defenses without their star players can’t do. The Jags have a bye week, so they need to beat the Texans, a division opponent with a one-game lead. Houston beat Jacksonville in Week 2, 13-12, and has won three-straight games against the Jags.
Pick: Texans -1.5
Prediction: Texans 27, Jaguars 20
Sunday, Nov. 3 (1:00 p.m. ET games)
Bears at Eagles (-5)
Da Bears stink. Chicago has lost three straight games while the Eagles beat a tough Bills team. Chicago is 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Philly. Underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. I the Eagles -3 instead of -5 because I really think this is going to be a low-scoring game with four or five field goals unless the Eagles have it figured out. We remember the last time these two met, and there was a field goal involved.
Pick: Eagles -3
Prediction: Eagles 24, Bears 19
Colts (-1) at Steelers
No James Conner for the Steelers really bums me out for this game. The Steelers after that dreadful start can get to 4-4 and have a chance at the AFC North title. The Colts have been a cinderella team beating Houston and Kansas City while being 5-2 without Andrew Luck. The Colts on a three-game winning streak and the Steelers are on a two-game winning streak. I said weeks ago when the Steelers were 1-4, they would win their next three games be 4-4 and face the Rams. I really like the Colts, I don’t know how Pittsburgh will do it or if they do, but I do know the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and I’m a man of my word.
Pick: Steelers +1
Prediction: Steelers 21, Colts 20
Jets (-3) at Dolphins
I’ve already called my Dolphins win for the year when they lost to the Redskins on the final play, so I’ll talk about them winning again when they play Cincinnati for the tank for Tua game. Le’veon Bell, Jamal Adams, and Robby Anderson showed how happy they were to stay Jets the past week while Dolphins players were dealt. Jets want to start winning, and this is the perfect game. The Jets are 1-4-1 in their past six meetings with the Dolphins, so this can and will probably be a really close game. Take the Jets ML and forget the spread. Also, Miami allows 160.4 rushing yards a game, so take the over rushing, receiving, and touchdowns on all Lev Bell props.
Pick: Jets -3
Prediction: Jets 20, Dolphins 17
Redskins at Bills (-9.5)
The Bills train is now leaving the station…just kidding. Buffalo still is elite even after the Eagles loss, and what a great game to bounce back and get a ton of pressure and turnovers on an average quarterback. Washington is 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings. Buffalo at home The Redskins are 31st in passing yards per game, and 25th in rushing yards, but covered vs. Minnesota on TNF thanks to a short week. Can’t roll with Washington when all numbers point towards Buffalo, but -6 or -7 is safer after we saw the 49ers beat the Redskins 9-0, and the spread was -9.5.
Pick: Bills -6
Prediction: Bills 23, Redskins 13
Titans at Panthers (-4)
What a terrible game to bet on this is! Panthers were smacked last week, and the Titans, who are now on a two-game win streak, got the win with Ryan Tannehill vs. the Buccaneers. Tennesee’s defense remains elite, and Christian McCaffrey can’t be stopped. The under is 4-1 in the past five meetings. The road team has covered in four of the last five as well. I think this game is going to be similar to those trends with the home team hanging on.
Pick: Titans +4
Prediction: Panthers 21, Titans 20
Vikings (-3) at Chiefs
Minnesota is riding high on a four-game winning streak while Kansas City is on a two-game slide. Matt Moore didn’t look bad in his debut for the Chiefs and having weapons like Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce doesn’t hurt no matter what defense you’re playing. Another home game for the Chiefs helps while Mahomes is out, but the Vikings have to keep up with the Packers and this is a game they should win especially if Adam Thielen is back from a hamstring injury. The home team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings, but that’s a trend I’ll fade here with Matt Moore as the quarterback and not Mahomes or Alex Smith.
Pick: Vikings -3
Prediction: Vikings 24, Chiefs 17
Sunday, Nov. 3 (4:05/4:25 p.m. ET games)
Lions at Raiders (-2)
Points! Points! Points! The Raiders are 30th in passing defense while the Lions are last. Hello, waiver wire, calling Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr. This has the chance to be a chuck it deep type of game, and both quarterbacks have plenty of weapons. The Lions are 3-0-1 ATS, and so is the home team in the past five games of this series. I’ll take the home team that gets a chance at being .500 and passing the Chargers for second-place in the AFC West behind the injured Chiefs.
Pick: Raiders -2
Prediction: Raiders 27, Lions 23
Buccaneers at Seahawks (-6)
This is my potential trap game of the week. One thing I’ll admit, I am far better at the 1 PM games then 4 PM games. I want to take Seattle by a touchdown, but a few problems are holding me back. Tampa Bay is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings, the underdog has covered four of the last five games and the road teams are 7-3 ATS between the two. Seattle is 0-4 at home ATS this season. Everything points to Tampa Bay, and the under is 8-2 in the last ten meaning Tampa Bay can keep it close. The last game for the Bucs before the nail hits the coffin. Sigh…Russell Wilson has to torch a defense that allows 30.3 points a game. Have to take Seattle by a touchdown but honestly buy them down to -3 because the trends are so strong, but Seattle will win.
Pick: Seahawks -3
Prediction: Seahawks 30, Bucs 24
Browns (-3.5) at Broncos
The Broncos will play Brandon Allen at quarterback after Joe Flacco went down. Allen could come out and be the next quarterback to surprise us much as Kyle Allen, Gardner Minshew, or Teddy Bridgewater have. Cleveland needs some wins to gain ground on the AFC North as Baltimore and Pittsburgh have massive games this week. Denver’s season is likely over, and if Cleveland loses this game and falls to 2-6, I think this offseason could get interesting.
Pick: Browns -3.5
Prediction: Browns 24, Broncos 17
Packers (-3.5) at Chargers
The Aaron Rodgers show didn’t slow down last week, and it sure as hell won’t this week. Give credit to the Chargers defense because they do have some phenomenal players, but I don’t think L.A.’s offense will be able to get it done late. Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings, with the road team being 5-1 ATS in the series. Go Pack Go.
Pick: Packers -3.5
Prediction: Packers 27, Chargers 19
Sunday Night Football Sunday, Nov. 3 (8:20 p.m. ET)
Patriots (-3.5) at Ravens
Oh my god, this is the SNF we were missing without Mahomes-Rodgers last weekend. Action Jackson vs. the GOAT and the best defense in the NFL. The Patriots ML is -190, and if that doesn’t ring bells to every Patriots better, then I don’t know what will. New England has an insane five-game stretch starting now while the Ravens have the Bengals next. All focus is on New England. The road team has gone 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with the over going 4-0 in Baltimore. The underdog is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings, and Baltimore is home, but ultimately, the Patriots are too good and a much better team than the Ravens right now.
Pick: Patriots -3.5
Prediction: Patriots 28, Ravens 24
Monday Night Football Monday, Nov. 4 (8:15 p.m. ET)
Cowboys (-7.5) at Giants
The Giants have lost by a combined 11 points the past two weeks while the Cowboys throttled the Eagles 37-10 on Week 7 on SNF then enjoyed a bye week as their reward for beating up their rival. Amari Cooper is back, and the Cowboys are in full go. The Giants can say the same, and they’ve just added Leonard Williams from the Jets in the first-ever New York-New York trade. Dallas is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings, while the favorite is 4-1 ATS in those games. The last time the Giants were on MNF, they lost 35-14 to the Patriots.
Pick: Cowboys -7.5
Prediction: Cowboys 31, Giants 21
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