Week 9 was a bounceback week for Vegas as they cleaned up with the Dolphins beating the Jets, as well as the Packers and Patriots going down. This week there’s a lot of potential on the moneyline if you like the underdogs or road teams. The Bears, Browns, and Bucs are all home favorites in toss-up games while the Chargers, Seahawks, and Vikings all attempt to play the role of the spoiler in primetime this week.
OVERALL: 66-37 SU and 59-43-1 ATS
- LAST WEEK ATS: 7-7
- LAST WEEK SU: 9-5
Check out Inside the Sport Gene’s Inside the Lab’s NFL Pick Em Podcast for Week 10, where I’m a guest, and you can hear other sports betting analysts. I’ve won the ML three weeks in a row and ready for a fourth-straight week. Good luck as always, and follow on Twitter @VaughnDalzell for more picks and props.
Thursday Night Football November, Nov. 7 (8:20 p.m. ET)
Chargers at Raiders (-1)
The Chargers are 4-0 ATS in the last four games in Oakland and have won four-straight versus the Raiders. Oakland hasn’t beat L.A. since 2016 when they swept the season series. L.A. has swept Oakland the past two years, and they meet for the first time this season a half-game separated in the AFC West. The Chargers fired their offensive coordinator and looked great against Green Bay. The under is 5-0 in the last five meetings, but I think this one has firework potential.
Pick: Chargers +1
Prediction: Chargers 27, Raiders 23
Sunday, Nov. 10 (1:00 pm ET games)
Chiefs (-6) at Titans
Patrick Mahomes, please and thank you. If he plays, there’s not much debate for this pick. If he doesn’t, Tennessee could walk away with an upset. They have a great defense, but Kansas City’s offense hasn’t skipped much of a beat with Matt Moore under center. On the other side, the Titans have scored 20 points in three-straight games since Ryan Tannehill got the start. Their two wins were by a combined eight points and by 10 to Carolina last week. I think this line is a tad bit too high considering uncertainty with Mahomes. I’d buy down to -3, but if Mahomes plays a touchdown is fair.
Pick: Chiefs -3
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Titans 21
Cardinals at Buccaneers (-4.5)
Arizona is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with Tampa Bay, and the way Jameis Winston has been this season this game is a toss-up. The Cardinals earned two of their wins on the road this year and are 2-2 away compared to 1-3-1 at home. Tampa Bay is 31st (293.5) in passing defense, and Arizona is 29th (280.7) per game. Expect points and the game to come down to the final possessions.
Pick: Cardinals +4.5
Prediction: Cardinals 31, Tampa Bay 28
Ravens (-10) vs Bengals
A division game between the winless Bengals and the flying-high Ravens will be the snoozer of the week. Baltimore is fresh off its best win of the season, knocking New England off their pedestal and giving them their first loss of the year. The Ravens are actually terrible ATS in Cincy, and the underdog has dominated the ATS in this series. The only problem is Andy Dalton was the QB in all those games, and he’s benched now in favor of Ryan Finley, who will get his first career start.
Pick: Ravens -10
Prediction: Ravens 24, Bengals 10
Giants (-2.5) at Jets
I wanted to say some bad things about the Jets after last week, but I was raised not to say anything if you have nothing good to say, so let’s talk about the New York Football Giants. The Giants are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six versus the Jets and face the Jet’s NFL-worst passing offense, and 30th ranked rushing offense. The Giants are turnover-prone, ranked 30th with a -10 turnover margin, which will keep the Jets around.
Pick: Giants -2.5
Prediction: Giants 23, Jets 17
Bills at Browns (-3)
What? How are the Browns favorites? The Dawg Pound is that crazy at 1 PM on a cold Sunday afternoon? Doubt it. Buffalo’s defense bounced back against the Redskins, allowing nine points after 31 to the Eagles. The Browns went to Denver and lost to Brandon Allen, 24-19, in his first start for the Broncos. I don’t know what else to think about this Browns team, but I know Buffalo is for real. The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings while the home team is 4-1 ATS and the favorite is 5-0 ATS. Trap game potential.
Pick: Bills +3
Prediction: Bills 21, Browns 20
Lions at Bears (-2.5)
This one is the worst game of the week if you’re trying to win money. Honestly, don’t think about it because they’ve split the last four games in Chicago, with three of the games being determined by four points or less. Detroit is 1-3-1 ATS in their previous five meetings in Chicago, and the favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings. Not a fan of this one.
Pick: Bears -2.5
Prediction: Bears 20, Lions 17
Falcons at Saints (-13)
This pick solely lies on if Matt Ryan is playing. A division matchup should never have a spread this high, but Atlanta has been a disappointment. The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five and haven’t been very good in New Orleans ATS. If Ryan plays, I’ll take Atlanta +14 or even +17 for decent money. The underdog has covered eight of the last 13 times, and this is a divisional matchup with the Saints off a bye week. If Ryan doesn’t play, Saints all the way.
Pick: Falcons +17 with Ryan, Saints -13 without Ryan
Prediction: Saints 28, Falcons 16
Sunday, Nov. 10 (4:05/4:25 p.m. ET games)
Rams (-3.5) at Steelers
I called it, and I’m so proud they pulled it off. Three-straight wins for the Steelers, and I knew it would happen. Now the Rams come to town to end the three-game home-stand. Goff and the Rams are fifth in the NFL (287.3) in passing while Minkah Fitzpatrick and the Steelers defense is 10th in passing yards allowed (228.0). This is going to be a low-scoring affair, and James Conner is going to miss his second-straight game. The Rams are 1-4 ATS, and I swear I’m not picking them because they’re my favorite team, but I love the schedule, and Mike Tomlin’s teams always play to the competitions caliber good or bad.
Pick: Steelers +3.5
Prediction: Steelers 24, Rams 23
Dolphins at Colts (-10.5)
Jacoby Brisset is questionable, but to me, it really wouldn’t matter. The Dolphins have kept games close all season, and every trend backs Miami. The Dolphins are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games in Indianapolis, the road team is 7-1 ATS in the previous eight, and the underdog is 12-2 ATS in their last 14. The trends are screaming so loud I can’t ignore them. Fins at +14 would be the best bet.
Pick: Dolphins +10.5
Prediction: Colts 24, Dolphins 16
Panthers at Packers (-5.5)
The Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last five against Dallas, while the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four. The over has hit in seven-straight games between the two, including 6-1 in Green Bay. The Packers are 24th in rushing yards allowed (127.7) while the Panthers are 7th in rushing offense (132.9). Carolina is 9th in passing defense (227.0). Aaron Rodgers slowed down the last game and is now 12th in passing yards per game (257.1) right behind the Bengals passing attack with Andy Dalton. The Pack might be slowing down, but I’ll take them to avoid their first losing streak of the season.
Pick: Panthers +5.5
Prediction: Packers 24, Panthers 20
Sunday Night Football Sunday, Nov. 10 (8:20 p.m. ET)
Vikings at Cowboys (-3)
This is going to be a fun SNF matchup between two run-orientated teams that can air it out too. Both defenses are separated by a few yards while the Cowboys average the most yards in the NFL (436.8). The Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings, while the favorite has dominated ATS 9-2 over the previous 11 meetings. No Adam Thielen makes the Vikings a little more one dimensional, but I still like the Vikings even after losing to the Chiefs last week.
Pick: Vikings +3
Prediction: Cowboys 27, Vikings 24
Monday Night Football Monday, Nov. 11 (8:15 p.m. ET)
Seahawks at 49ers (-6.5)
I’m finishing off primetime games with three road underdogs to not only cover, but win. I know it’s crazy, but so is betting on the NFL. The Seahawks have dominated the ATS trends in divisional matchup going 11-3-1 in the last 15 meetings and going 5-2 ATS in the last seven. Seattle has won 9 out of the last ten games, the only loss coming last year in San Francisco 26-23 in OT. The 49ers have had two blowouts at home this year over Carolina and Cleveland. The other was a 4-point comeback win over the Steelers playing Mason Rudolph for the first time. The Seahawks are a road team and are 3-1 ATS on the road compared to 1-4 at home.
Pick: Seahawks +6.5
Prediction: Seahawks 23, 49ers 20
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