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Week 11: 49ers, Chiefs and Patriots look to rebound

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Week 10 was a crazy week in the NFL as we saw the Dolphins, Steelers, Seahawks, Titans, Jets, Falcons and Vikings all pulling off upsets. This week’s spreads don’t get any easier, but here’s to another week full of tough matchups. Baltimore and Houston air it out on Sunday and a Super Bowl 52 rematch between the Eagles-Patriots both coming off byes. The Rams and Bears meet on Sunday Night Football in what will be most likely the lowest scoring game and Patrick Mahomes and Phillip Rivers go at it on Monday Night Football to close out the week. Let’s see what Week 11 has in store for us.

OVERALL: 71-43 SU and 67-47-2 ATS

  • LAST WEEK ATS: 8-4-1
  • LAST WEEK SU: 5-8

Check out Inside the Sport Gene’s Inside the Lab’s NFL Pick Em Podcast for Week 11, where I’m a guest, and you can hear other sports betting analysts. I’ve won the ML five out of six weeks (yes last week broke my streak) and claimed ATS champion last week. Good luck as always, and follow on Twitter @VaughnDalzell for more picks and props.

Sunday, Nov. 17 (1:00 p.m. ET games)

Texans at Ravens (-4)

The game of the week. Baltimore is really feeling themselves and that was evident in their pounding of Cincy last week after beating New England. Baltimore is averaging 33.3 points per game, the best in the NFL while the Texans have the firepower to keep this one close. The Ravens are 3-1 at home and currently riding a five-game home streak compared to the Texans being 3-2 on the road and riding a two-game winning streak. Houston is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings and the under has hit five-straight times in Baltimore between the two.

Pick: Texans +4

Prediction: Ravens 30, Texans 27

Cowboys (-4.5) at Lions

Dallas couldn’t come away with a victory on SNF against Minnesota and they have a good bounce-back game against a lowly Lions team with their backup quarterback in. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and the over is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. Dallas should cruise through this one.

Pick: Cowboys -4.5

Prediction: Cowboys 30, Lions 17

Saints (-5.5) at Buccaneers

Saints won 31-24 in the first meeting with Teddy Bridgewater and the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven games. Drew Brees struggled last week and was sacked six times against the Falcons and Alvin Kamara didn’t look any better. Tampa Bay can put up points with the best of them. The Bucs average the third-most points in the NFL (28.9) making this is a potential barn-burner.

Pick: Buccaneers +5.5

Prediction: Saints 30, Buccaneers 26

Falcons at Panthers (-5.5)

No one talked about the Dolphins beating the Colts last week because everyone was so pissed the Falcons beat the Saints. Atlanta is one of two teams to average 300 passing yards a game and right now they have injuries all over the field. Devonta Freeman is out and multiple defensive backs are injured. Carolina is ranked 29th in rushing defense (137.6) so they’re getting a pass without Freeman playing this week. I like Atlanta on a backdoor cover.

Pick: Panthers -5.5

Prediction: Panthers 27, Falcons 20

Broncos at Vikings (-10.5)

Denver has Minnesota and Buffalo back-to-back weeks and I feel bad for Brandon Allen. Minnesota looked great without Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook did it all for the Vikings. The Broncos have the third-best passing defense in the NFL (202.1) while the Vikings have the seventh-best rushing defense (91.2) in the league. I like a low-scoring game with the Vikings run game to be the focal point while the Broncos struggle to establish there’s.

Pick: Vikings -10

Prediction: Vikings 24, Broncos 13

S

Jets at Redskins (-1.5)

The Jets shocked a lot of people last jumping out on the Giants early. The Jets have the Redskins, Raiders, Bengals, and Dolphins the next four weeks so this will be their chance to put some respect on their season. I don’t like the Jets very often, but there’s no reason why they can’t beat the skins. The Jets have the second-best rushing defense (81.9) in the league and 26th in passing defense (262.2). The Jets are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four versus the Redskins with the favorite being 4-1-1 ATS in the last six games.

Pick: Jets +1

Prediction: Jets 26, Redskins 24

Jaguars at Colts (-3)

Nick Foles versus Jacoby Brissett. Both are returning from injury and both still have hope in saving their season and making the wildcard. The Jaguars are 7-0-1 ATS versus Indy and 3-0-1 ATS in Indianapolis over the last four games. The under has hit in seven of eight games in Indianapolis making the under 44 probably the safest bet. The public and sharks are split on this one almost 50/50 making this the biggest toss-up of the week.

Pick: Jags +3

Prediction: Jags 21, Colts 19

Bills (-6) at Dolphins

Miami has won two games in a row, I repeat, Miami has won two games in a row. Will it be three? Possibly, but not likely. Ryan Fitzpatrick has carried the Dolphins on his back but faces the third-best passing defense in the league (188.7). Josh Allen should have a good day getting out of the pocket on the third-worst rushing defense in the league (146.1). Its AFC East so I would buy Buffalo down or go with the money line if I was going to bet this game. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five games. I’m buying Buffalo down to -3.

Pick: Bills -3

Prediction: Bills 23, Dolphins 17

Sunday, Nov. 17 (4:05/4:25 p.m. ET games)

Patriots (-3.5) at Eagles

The Patriots and Eagles are both off bye weeks and in two separate points in the season. New England is the front-runner in the AFC while Philly is playing catch up in the toughest stretch of their schedule. The Pats should come out more prepared for this game and rumors of Alshon Jeffrey missing this game is becoming more and more possible. Without Alshon, it’s hard to see the Eagles play-makers making a difference. The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four games while the Patriots are 1-4 ATS in Philly over the last five games. Tough game but hard to bet against Brady. No need for the half-point but buying this game up to -6 or -9.5 would be a juicy reward if you like the Pats as I do.

Pick: Patriots -3

Prediction: Patriots 31, Eagles 20

Cardinals at 49ers (-11.5)

This is my potential trap game of the week. Everybody went 49ers to cover -10 against Arizona on TNF a few weeks back and now everyone is going Cardinals +11.5 in hopes of the same thing. Arizona is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings and 4-0 ATS in the last two seasons. The road team is 5-2 ATS over the last three-four seasons pointing all signs to Arizona. The 49ers are without George Kittle and the Cardinals may get David Johnson back Sunday. It’s over 80% of bets on Arizona to cover so I’ll buy SF down to -9 to be safe. The line against Washinton was -9.5 and the Skins won 9-0 so I won’t take any half-points. I’ll take the 49ers by double-digits at home motivated by their first loss.

Pick: 49ers -9

Prediction: 49ers 31, Cardinals 20

Bengals at Raiders (-10.5)

The Bengals are 0-9 and well on their way to 0-10. They’ve benched Andy Dalton and A.J. Green will sit the rest of the year because of the lack of success everywhere. The Bengals are last in rushing defense (173.0) and 22nd in passing defense (256.4). Oakland has really established the run this year with rookie RB Josh Jacobs. That’s been the difference and I think this will be really close to the line. I’d take Oakland -7 before 10, but they should beat Cincy handily.

Pick: Raiders -10

Prediction: Raiders 28, Bengals 17

Fantasy Football

Sunday Night Football Sunday, Nov. 17 (8:20 p.m. ET)

Bears at Rams (-6.5)

Oh my god, what a defensive battle this is going to be. The over/under is 40 so you can imagine the amount of running plays that will be called. The Rams only managed 3 offensive points on the Steelers and the Bears beat the Lions without Matthew Stafford. Two un-impressive games from two un-impressive teams this year. I’m not ready to throw either team away, but this should be a close game with the home team winning.

Pick: Bears +7

Prediction: Rams 20, Bears 14

Monday Night Football Monday, Nov. 18 (8:15 p.m. ET)

Chiefs (-4) at Chargers

The Chargers had the win on TNF, but couldn’t stop Oakland when it mattered most. Kansas City can say the same thing about Tennessee. The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in L.A. with the road team going 7-1 ATS in the last eight. Kansas City has won five of the last six games, the only loss coming 29-28 last year. The Chiefs run defense is second to last in the NFL, behind Cincinnati, and ahead of Miami. The Chargers are a quality football team, the home squad and this being a division matchup makes it a tough call. Buy it down to -3 to be safe but I said that last week about the Titans…good luck.

Pick: Chiefs -3

Prediction: Chiefs 30, Chargers 23

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