Week 11 was a fun weekend of football, and the Colts-Texans game kicked off an exciting TNF for Week 12. This week has five prime matchups with a lot of playoff teams battling it out. Let’s have a good weekend so we can have a better Thanksgiving.
OVERALL: 84-44 ML and 76-52-2 ATS
- LAST WEEK ATS: 9-5
- LAST WEEK ML: 13-1
Check out Inside the Sport Gene’s Inside the Lab’s NFL Pick Em Podcast for Week 12, where I’m a guest, and you can hear other sports betting analysts. I’ve won the ML seven out of eight weeks and runner up ATS champion for two weeks in a row. Good luck as always, and follow on Twitter @VmoneySports for more picks and props. Sign up for my Patreon Page for exclusive picks, parlays, props all sent your email daily.
Sunday, Nov. 24 (1:00 p.m. ET games)
Seahawks at Eagles (-1.5)
This could be the best game of the week. The Seahawks are 5-0 on the road, and the Eagles have only lost to the Lions and Patriots at home. Alshon Jeffrey is returning. Nelson Agholor is out along with Lane Johnson. Seattle is the better team, and it’s going to rain and be cold in Philadelphia before, during, and after game time according to the forecast. I love the under 49 here more than a winner, but ultimately I don’t see the Seahawks losing by more than 3 points, and the Eagles schedule is set up for a playoff run, so this is a desperate game.
Pick: Seahawks +3
Prediction: Seahawks 24, Eagles 20
Buccaneers at Falcons (-4.5)
The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four, and the over is 5-1 in the previous six games. The Falcons have won two straight after losing six in a row. Both teams come in at 3-7, and if you asked me before the season which of the two would be 3-7, I would have gone with Tampa and certainly not both. Atlanta has changed who’s calling plays, and the offense has come alive, scoring 20 or more three games in a row. Tampa Bay gives the ball over the most in the NFL (25), and Atlanta is second to last in takeaways (8). This could be that game for Atlanta’s defense to back Matt Ryan up at home.
Pick: Falcons -4.5
Prediction: Falcons 27, Bucs 20
Broncos at Bills (-4)
The Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus Buffalo, and the Bills are back at home after a 37-20 win versus at Miami. The over/under for this one is 37, and in the past seven meetings, the over has hit in 5 of them. I like the over here, not by much. There could be some look ahead as Buffalo goes to Dallas next weekend. I like Buffalo to get a winning streak under their belt.
Pick: Bills -4
Prediction: Bills 23, Broncos 17
Panthers at Saints (-9.5)
The Saints scored 34 last week on the Bucs, only squeezed three out against Atlanta. The Panthers aren’t bad by any means, but their season is only declining from here. If they lose, it’ll be their time since Week 4 having a losing record. Panthers are 14-5 ATS in New Orleans over the last 19 years, and the underdog is 9-1 ATS in their previous ten meetings, and 10 is a lot of points for a division matchup. Panthers don’t want a losing record, and I’ll take them on a backdoor cover. The over is 6-0 in this matchup the last three years (46.5).
Pick: Panthers +10
Prediction: Saints 30, Panthers 21
Steelers (-6.5) at Bengals
I might be suiting up for the Steelers at wide receiver this week it’s so bad. Juju and James Conner are out, the Bengals are off a close loss to the Raiders and would love their first win to come against Pittsburgh. Both teams can’t score, and the over/under reflects that at 38. I think that’s a safer bet. Unless the Steelers defense scores, I don’t think either team can get to 20 points. The Bengals will get their first win at home…it’ll just be ATS though (0-4). Sorry.
Pick: Bengals +7
Prediction: Steelers 17, Bengals 16
Giants at Bears (-6)
Mitch Trubinsky is off the injury report and playing against the Giants this Sunday, and honestly, that makes me lean towards the Giants even more. The first team to 20 points is going to win this game, and I think at this point Daniel Jones, Saquon, and Golden Tate are more viable options than Trubinksy, Montgomery, and whoever the Bears No. 1 is considered. Low scoring game with New York hanging around until the end.
Pick: Giants +6
Prediction: Giants 20, Bears 17
Dolphins at Browns (-10.5)
This spread is way too high for me to take Cleveland. Are they a better team? Yes. Are they liable to score 30? Yes. Are they expecting to walk all over Miami? Yes. They have Pittsburgh again next week after all the drama and if they win this week and next they will be 6-6. I think there’s going to be a lot of looks ahead this week and overlooking Miami.
Pick: Dolphins +10.5
Prediction: Browns 27, Dolphins 17
Raiders (-3) at Jets
Both of these teams have been rolling lately, and both quarterbacks are going to air it out Sunday. Sam Darnold has been on a tear and faces a terrible Raiders secondary. The Jets are last in yards per game and 29th in points per game. Derek Carr will deal with Jamal Adams and company, which will be no easy task, but they’re hot on a three-game winning streak, and I like it to continue until they are in Kansas City next week. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings vs. the Jets.
Pick: Raiders -3
Prediction: Raiders 27, Jets 21
Lions (-3.5) at Redskins
I don’t know what else Dwayne Haskins can do to get his team behind them. The Lions have one win in their last seven games. Six of seven have come by double-digits and their only win during that stretch, against the Giants 31-26. Washington hasn’t won a game, and I don’t see it here even with Jeff Driskel under center.
Driskel had three touchdowns (2 passing, one rushing) against Dallas and one touchdown and one interception in 46 attempts versus the Bears. I think it’ll be competitive, but I don’t think the Skins can score points with Detroit. The Lions are 10th in scoring (24.4) ahead of the Texans, Saints, Panthers, Eagles, and Raiders; the Redskins are dead last with 12.5 points per game.
Pick: Lions -3.5
Prediction: Lions 20, Redskins 14
Sunday, Nov. 24 (4:05/4:25 p.m. ET games)
Cowboys at Patriots (-6.5)
The Patriots rebounded from their first loss with a stellar defensive effort against the Eagles last week. New England caught some breaks, and Philly couldn’t catch a cold, well Agholor couldn’t, and now Dallas is going to cold and windy Foxboro. I like Dak and company, but the Cowboys have played eight of 11 games in a dome. The only games they played outside: Redskins (W) Giants (W), and Jets (L). I am not impressed the slightest bit, and with it supposed to be under 40 degrees and rainy, give me the Patriots all day and night.
Pick: Patriots -6.5
Prediction: Patriots 31, Cowboys 20
Jaguars at Titans (-3)
The Jaguars took me out of a perfect ML on Into the Lab’s Podcast, and I don’t know if I can forgive them. I will let you, the Titans are the most inconsistent team, and a win here will give them their second-winning streak of the season. Offensively the Jags have better numbers, which is surprising, but Tennessee’s defense is the difference in this game. The Jags averaged 18.9 points per game (26th), and the Titans allow 19.7 per game (9th). A division game makes this a closer game then it should be, but I think the Titans need this win with three division games in the next four weeks, including this one sitting at 5-5 one game out of the AFC South lead.
Pick: Titans -3 / Titans ML
Prediction: Titans 20, Jaguars 17
Sunday Night Football Sunday, Nov. 24 (8:20 p.m. ET)
Packers at 49ers (-3)
Oh my god, this will be a great game. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games in San Fran, and I like their matchup in this one. The 49ers have played three-straight close games, and this one may be the toughest. The 49ers have the second-most points per game (29.5) and the second-least amount scored on them per game (15.5). Home field will be substantial for them, but I like the Pack to cover and most likely come out with a win. This could be a very high scoring game.
Pick: Packers +3
Prediction: Packers 27, 49ers 23
Monday Night Football Monday, Nov. 25 (8:15 p.m. ET)
Ravens (-3) at Rams
The Ravens are for real, and I caught myself in conversation saying I can see them in the SuperBowl, and I can’t believe it. I like this game the most out of any all weekend, and it’s because the Ravens defense will suffocate L.A. Lamar Jackson is in the running for MVP and has still been running since the Bengals game. I don’t see how the Rams can win this game. The favorite is 3-0-1 in their last four meetings.
Pick: Ravens -3
Prediction: Ravens 24, Rams 13