As a follow-up to my first article here at OTH Fantasy Hockey, “Quarter-Season ADP Underperformers,” I thought it would be beneficial to look at the flip-side of that same coin and explore some quarter-season ADP overperformers. Using Yahoo! ADP, I will discuss some standout performances from NHL players exceeding expectations relative to where they were drafted. That’s important because if you took any of the players from my previous piece, then you definitely need someone to pick up the slack on your team. Here is a list of some interesting quarter-season ADP over-performers:
Leon Driasaitl – ADP 15
Who knew a 50-goal scorer in 2018-19 could be an overperformer the following season? The biggest knock on Draisaitl’s stat line from last year was his inflated shooting percentage (21.6%). Many in the fantasy hockey community decided “Surely that number will regress to his career average of roughly 14% and he will not continue to score goals at such an outlandish pace.” Nope! His shooting percentage has come down a hair since last season so he’s only on pace to score 48 goals, however, his current point pace is 146. What he and Connor McDavid (who’s point pace is a similarly ludicrous 143) are doing is simply unprecedented in the modern NHL. Will it continue? I choose not to guess! Instead, I will just enjoy the show until something bad happens because Edmonton!
Jack Eichel – ADP 31
Eichel is an elite top-line center with zero challengers for playing time and a role on the top powerplay that is cast in cement, so how is his ADP so high? It could be that he plays for a pretty bad team. Hey, I’ll take the bad team discount any day of the week. Somebody’s gotta score, amirite? So far this season Eichel has 31 points in 24 games and with 14 goals, he is already halfway to last season’s total of 28 – a career-high. He’s shooting a bit less than normal but his shooting percentage is as high as it’s ever been (16.7%). Maybe those things even out but even if they don’t, that number isn’t completely unheard of. What Eichel is doing looks to be sustainable and in my mind, he is a bonafide stud.
John Carlson – ADP 46
What John Carlson is doing right now is completely ridiculous. He’s got 36 points in 26 games from the blue line, and he’s factored in on 12 of the 19 powerplay points scored by the Capitals. He has the Norris Trophy in the bag already as long as things don’t go sideways. I think a big reason why Carlson dropped down people’s draft boards was he’s somewhat of a 2-dimensional player – those dimensions being points and blocks. If for some reason the points started to tail off a bit from last season, then you just drafted a D-man late in the third round getting you blocks. However, as we all know, Alex Ovechkin is some kind of super-human android and any powerplay featuring him in his office will continue to succeed in perpetuity, and therefore, so will John Carlson.
Dougie Hamilton – ADP 89
Another defenseman finds his way onto this list, but this guy is more of a multi-category contributor than John Carlson. Once Justin Faulk was traded to the Blues, the path was finally open for Dougie Hamilton to show what he could do as a true number one defenseman. And he has delivered to the tune of 25GP, 10G, 16A, 9PPP, 20PIM, 88SOG, 33 Hits, and 36 Blocks. Similar to some of these other quarter-season ADP overperformers, his shooting percentage is higher than his career average (almost double) but if he can keep up anything close to this pace, we could see a 25G, 75P season out of Hamilton.
Darcy Kuemper – ADP 135
And finally, a goalie! The twenty-nine-year-old Kuemper has been excellent for the Arizona Coyotes this season proving that last year was no fluke. Right now, Kuemper is sporting a .934 SV% 1.98GAA with 2 shutouts – a real boon in categories leagues. If you’re in a points league where wins are the determining factor in a goalies value, then that could change things a little as the Coyotes are a middling team (with poor underlying numbers) and even with those sparkling stats, he’s still just 9-6. Another concern is that with Antti Raanta being back from injury (for now), they seem to be splitting starts 60-40. For right now though, enjoy the ride as your late-round dart throw has come through!
Right here is where I would put in some “honorable mentions” but there are way too many, so I’ll let you do it! Having a successful draft is never just about nailing the first few rounds, it’s also about hitting on some of the later picks and being lucky enough to see them overperform on your team. Leave a comment with some of the quarter-season ADP overperformers from your team or even just some that stand out to you, I’d love to hear about them!
You can discuss this article, along with many more at the Overtime Heroics Forums!
Don’t forget to check out the OTH Merch Store!