Week 13 was upset special as the Bengals, Dolphins, and Redskins pulled off wins. This week we take a deep dive into some playoff shaping games heading into Week 14.
OVERALL: 102-58 SU and 95-63-2 ATS
- LAST WEEK ATS: 10-6
- LAST WEEK SU: 10-6
Check out Inside the Sport Gene’s Inside the Lab’s NFL Pick Em Podcast for Week 14, where I’m a guest, and you can hear other sports betting analysts. Good luck as always, and follow on Twitter @VmoneySports for more picks, parlays, and subscriptions.
Sunday, Dec. 8 (1:00 p.m. ET games)
49ers at Saints (-3)
Another game of the week contender with the 49ers in the mix. Going down to NOLA is no easy task, but San Fran has had success in New Orleans going 5-1 ATS and the road team being 4-0 in their last four meetings. The 49ers defense has capitalized off turnovers, and the Saints couldn’t last week vs. the Falcons, and that will be the difference.
Pick: 49ers +3
Prediction: 49ers 27, Saints 23
Panthers at Falcons (-3)
Carolina fired their head coach Ron Rivera, and even worse news is they are terrible and winless ATS in their last four meetings in Atlanta. The home team and the under have been money-makers in this matchup, and I expect that trend to continue. Atlanta has lost two straight after winning two-straight and has scored 40 total points in the last two games. This is a good game for Atlanta to win at home before going to San Fran next week.
Pick: Falcons -3
Prediction: Falcons 21, Panthers 17
Colts at Buccaneers (-3)
This game means much more to the Colts than the Bucs, and Winston has been put on alert as his time in Tampa may be numbered. The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings, and I think this will be a close game. Indy is one game out of a wildcard spot, and if Hilton and Mack are good to go, I’m all in on Indy.
Pick: Colts +3
Prediction: Colts 24, Bucs 23
Dolphins at Jets (-5.5)
The Dolphins came out of nowhere last week and upset the Eagles in Miami and have the lowly Jets this week. New York is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against AFC East opponents, and Jamal Adams might be out again. Andy Dalton led the winless Bengals to a victory of New York, and Fitzmagic is just as capable if not more after that 365-yard game last week. The Jets have lost their last 11 games at home.
Pick: Dolphins +5.5
Prediction: Dolphins 22, Jets 17
Lions at Vikings (-13)
The Lions almost came away with a Thanksgiving Day surprise, but the Bears battled back and stole a victory in Detroit. The Vikings covering and the under has hit in the last four games between these two teams. Minnesota is too talented to keep this one within ten points, so 13 should be manageable.
Pick: Lions +13
Prediction: Vikings 27, Lions 17
Broncos at Texans (-9.5)
The Texans are coming off a huge home win vs. the Patriots, and the Broncos are coming off one of their own against their division rival the Chargers. The Texans will be prepared for Drew Lock, and a letdown game is unlikely in the last of a three-game home-stand, but a look-ahead to the first of two matchups with AFC South playoff contender Tennessee Titans.
Pick: Broncos +10
Prediction: Texans 23, Broncos 14
Redskins at Packers (-13)
Washington got a huge win over the Panthers last week, but a victory this week is far-fetched as the Skins are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 in Green Bay. The Pack is back this year and look for Green Bay to spread the ball around against a woeful Washington team. The Redskins defense will struggle to stop Rodgers and that running back committee.
Pick: Packers -13
Prediction: Packers 34, Redskins 16
Ravens (-6) at Bills
This is going to be a defensive-minded game as the Bills will try to limit Lamar Jackson and the highlight-reel plays he provides on the ground. The 49ers couldn’t contain Jackson, and he will look to break Michael Vick’s NFL Single Season rushing record this week vs. the Bills. Josh Allen and Buffalo handled the Cowboys easily, and the home team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings, including the under hitting five out of seven times.
Pick: Bills +6
Prediction: Ravens 27, Bills 21
Bengals at Browns (-8.5)
Browns need some life after falling behind in the playoff push losing to the Steelers. The Bengals are 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings in Cleveland, and the under has hit 5-0-1 over the previous six times. Andy Dalton led the winless Bengals to a victory against a hot Jets team that scored 34 points three games straight. I think the Bengals can keep it single digits, but Cleveland can cover -7.
Pick: Bengals +8.5
Prediction: Browns 27, Bengals 20
Steelers (-3) at Cardinals
The Steelers have been rolling, and I haven’t missed a pick on them since Week 4 ATS or ML. The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings, and the Steelers are elite against rookie QBs, and Kyler was banged up against the Rams last week, and it showed in the blowout. Pittsburgh can’t beat anyone by more than ten points, but three is very reasonable.
Pick: Steelers -3
Prediction: Steelers 24, Cardinals 17
Sunday, Dec. 8 (4:05/4:25 p.m. ET games)
Chiefs at Patriots (-3)
The Patriots haven’t lost two games in a row since Week 2 and 3 of last season, and the underdog has covered in four out of five times, and the over has hit five-straight times. New England had about a dozen players sick last week in Houston, and that affected them practicing all week. Chiefs don’t have a run game and can’t stop the run, so I expect New England to expose that.
Pick: Patriots -3
Prediction: Patriots 28, Chiefs 24
Chargers (-3) at Jaguars
Both team’s seasons are over, and at this point, they’re riding with two quarterbacks who don’t seem to be the future. L.A. is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 in Jacksonville and 7-0 over the previous seven meetings total. I think L.A. is currently a much better team but has had a tough season losing all eight games by seven or less.
Pick: Jaguars +3
Prediction: Jags 27, Chargers 21
Titans (-3) at Raiders
The Titans have been rolling the past three games, winning all, and this one should be no different. The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings, and the Titans have been a terrible 2-6 ATS vs. the Raiders. The Titans might have some look ahead with the Texans on deck next week, but I think they will take care of the Raiders who are in contention with them for a wildcard playoff spot.
Pick: Titans -3
Prediction: Titans 33, Raiders 23
Sunday Night Football Sunday, Dec. 8 (8:20 p.m. ET)
Seahawks (-1) at Rams
This spread is confusing. Seattle is much better and hasn’t lost a game on the road all year and 5-1 ATS. The mos elite road team in the NFL is headed to L.A., and I don’t see a scenario where the Rams can win. The over has hit in four-straight games.
Pick: Seahawks -1
Prediction: Seahawks 31, Rams 20
Monday Night Football Monday, Dec. 9 (8:15 p.m. ET)
Giants at Eagles (-10)
Eli Manning is back, and that makes this game a complete toss-up. The under has hit in seven of the last nine games in Philly, and I love that trend to continue. Golden Tate will still be out, Saquon Barkley has been banged up, and Manning cannot move in the pocket so Eagles defense should back Wentz up this week.
Pick: Eagles -9.5
Prediction: Eagles 27, Giants 14
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