Let’s take a deep dive into some playoff shaping games heading into Week 15.
OVERALL: 111-65 ML and 104-69-3 ATS
- LAST WEEK ATS: 9-6-1
- LAST WEEK ML: 9-7
Check out Inside the Sport Gene’s Inside the Lab’s NFL Pick Em Podcast for Week 15, where I’m a guest, and you can hear other sports betting analysts. Good luck as always, and follow on Twitter @VmoneySports for more picks, parlays, and subscriptions.
Thursday Night Football, Dec. 12 (8:25 ET)
Jets at Ravens (-16)
TNF is the toughest to judge and all the sharps on the under tonight. I like that pick as the Jets should struggle to score ranking 29th in PPG with 17.4. The Jets have scored 28 points (22 vs Miami) in the past two games and their last three games have all gone under 44 points. The Jets have played two MNF PRIMETIME games and scored 3 TOTAL POINTS (vs NE, CLE).
The Ravens have scored 37 on SNF (NE) and 45 on MNF (LAR) holding them to a combined 26 points (20 from NE). Baltimore’s defense has not allowed more than 20 points in eight consecutive games. Baltimore has scored first in 10 of 13 games this season (CLE, CIN, SF) and I expect the Ravens to score first and try and jump out to a lead and roll the rest of the way.
Pick: Ravens -16
Prediction: Ravens 27, Jets 10
Sunday Games, Dec. 15 (1:00 ET)
Seahawks (-6) at Panthers
The Seahawks are coming off their first road loss of the season bringing them to 6-1 with this being their last road game. They have the Cardinals and 49ers at home for the division Week 17 so a win this week is a must. Wilson plays the best on the road and Carolina’s season is done.
Pick: Seahawks -6
Prediction: Seahawks 33, Panthers 24
Titans (-3) at Texans
The Titans have scored 150 points over their last four games averaging 37.5 per game. The Texans have surrendered 118 points in four games and have scored 79 (19.7). Two teams trending in opposite directions and the Titans are pulling their ritual mid to late-season winning streak to compete for a playoff spot. They did this last season before losing in Week 17 to get in and I think they make it five-straight wins and lose their next two to New Orleans and Houston.
Pick: Titans -3
Prediction: Titans 30, Texans 23
Eagles (-4.5) at Redskins
The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five against the Redskins and boy could they use another one here. Their season is on the line and the Cowboys have a huge matchup with the Rams so the Eagles cannot afford a loss. Expect the Skins to keep it semi-close after almost beating the Eagles Week 1 and attempt at a back door cover like last week with Green Bay.
Pick: Eagles -4.5
Prediction: Eagles 23, Redskins 17
Dolphins at Giants (-3)
Eli almost did it! The weather was terrible, he found his groove early and defense couldn’t make a stop in the second half. Giants should have won last week and they’ll take that positive momentum into the final three games of the season. Eli is one game under .500 for his career and he and the team are not trying to go out under that mark. Expect Fitzmagic to keep it close as his team has rallied around him numerous times this season including the win vs the Eagles.
Pick: Dolphins +3
Prediction: Giants 24, Dolphins 23
Broncos at Chiefs (-10)
The Broncos are coming off a huge win with Drew Lock and the offense putting up 38 points on the Texans in the biggest upset of Sunday. Denver plays very well in Kansas City going 7-3 ATS in their last 10 in Arrowhead. The road team is also 4-0 ATS in their past four meetings no matter the location making the newly hot Broncos undervalued a bit.
Pick: Broncos +10
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Broncos 20
Packers (-4.5) at Bears
Big game for both teams as the Packers hold a one-game lead over the Vikings for the NFC North. The Bears trail the Vikings and final wildcard spot by two games. Chicago is 5-13 ATS in past 18 meetings and a win for the Pack would give them the number two seed over New Orleans. Green Bay split with Chicago last season losing at Soldier Field for the first time since 2010.
Pick: Packers -4.5
Prediction: Packers 23, Bears 17
Patriots (-9.5) at Bengals
This is a perfect tune-up game for the Patriots to get their running game and offense to get back on track. The Patriots have struggled to score 20 points only hitting that mark in two of five games. Despite all the sideline filming and accusations made on the Pats – they were still going to destroy Cincy either way.
Pick: Patriots -9.5
Prediction: Patriots 30, Bengals 13
Buccaneers (-3) at Lions
This is the snoozer of the week and if Jameis Winston isn’t playing and reports are he’s been throwing a tennis ball but not a football. I like Detroit with David Blough even though they’ve lost six-straight. This will be the best bet for the Lions to get a win and if Winston isn’t suiting up I like the Lions to cover this one. With Winston, he will likely throw 300 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions and win by 3. Tampa Bay is also 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games in Detroit.
Pick: Lions +3
Prediction: Lions 27, Bucs 24
Sunday, Dec. 12 (4:05/4:25 p.m. ET games)
Vikings (-2) at Chargers
The sharps are pounding the Chargers considering they are fully healthy, Dalvin Cook is banged up and Minnesota’s defense is trending in the wrong direction. They allowed 23-plus points in four-straight before holding Detroit to 7 last week. L.A. will be much better and keep it very close.
Pick: Vikings -2
Prediction: Vikings 24, Chargers 23
Browns (-2.5) at Cardinals
Arizona’s offense couldn’t get it going against the Steelers last week, but this week is more favorable for Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. Cleveland needs to win out to make playoffs and that starts in Arizona. The Browns sit at 6-7 and have the Ravens and Bengals the next two weeks and I like Cleveland to finish the season 8-8.
Pick: Browns -2.5
Prediction: Browns 27, Cardinals 24
49ers (-11) at Falcons
This is a big spread for a team that backdoor covers frequently, but the 49ers are real. Last week’s comeback was no fluke and they can beat anyone any given week. Atlanta has packed it in and ownership is going to mull over firing Dan Quinn once the season ends. 49ers -9 is the best bet.
Pick: 49ers -11
Prediction: 49ers 34, Falcons 17
Raiders (-6.5) at Jaguars
The Raiders are in need of a win and rattling off the next three just to make the playoffs. The Jags are done for the year and in the past five meetings, the over has four of five. This has the potential to be a shootout if Josh Jacobs is good to go. If he sits, the Jag could pull off the home upset.
Pick: Raiders -6.5
Prediction: Raiders 30, Jags 20
Rams (-1) at Cowboys
The Rams are rolling and the Cowboys are falling at the wrong time. The Rams have won three of their last four and the Cowboys still haven’t beat a team with a winning record and this will be their toughest test since Thanksgiving. I think Sean McVay and Todd Gurley will keep the Rams upbeat in this one and ride their momentum to their third-straight win.
Pick: Rams -1
Prediction: Rams 28, Cowboys 20
Sunday Night Football Sunday, Dec. 12 (8:20 p.m. ET)
Bills at Steelers (-2)
The two wildcard teams in the NFL meet on SNF for the biggest game with the most indicative of the weekend. The Bills had chances to beat the Ravens last week and couldn’t make the throws deep to win. This game will be like that for both quarterbacks and this is likely the game Duck Hodges comes down to Earth.
Pick: Billd +2
Prediction: Bills 20, Steelers 17
Monday Night Football Monday, Dec. 13 (8:15 p.m. ET)
Colts at Saints (-9)
The Saints are coming off a tough loss to the 49ers at home and need a win to stay within the one and two seeds. The Colts have dropped three-straight games and have allowed 89 points over the last three games. The Saints should offensively dominate this game from beginning to end.
Pick: Saints -9.5
Prediction: Saints 31, Colts 20
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