MLB Team of the Decade Simulation

0
441

Are the 2019 Nationals the best team of the decade?

With the decade coming to a close, it is time to look back and see who would win in a simulation of the 10 World Series winners and 10 World Series runners up. The winner would be crowned as the team of the decade. 

The Method:

I randomized the years 2010-2019 to set up five matchups in the AL and NL. Here are the matchups:

2011 versus 2014

2019 versus 2012

2017 versus 2018

2016 versus 2010

2013 versus 2015

Round 1:

The matchups will be best-of-seven series. Home field advantage is determined by the superior record within the season. The winner from each matchup will advance to an MLB-playoff style format. The two worst performing winners from each league will be placed in a winner-take-all wild-card game. After the simulation of the wild-card games, the winner will advance to play the best performing team in the ALDS or NLDS while the second and third place performers will be the other matchup.

Performances will be placed on how many games it takes to dispatch their opponent as well as run differential in the event of a tied ranking. Beyond run differential, runs scored will be used as a final tiebreaker. 

After the five-game ALDS and NLDS, there will be a seven-game ALCS and NLCS before a seven-game World Series. Home field advantage for the World Series will be decided by how the teams fared in their initial round of the competition. The winner of the World Series receives the title of Team of the Decade.

Simulation Rules:

While the lineups will not be afflicted with injuries, the rotations will be cycled through. I will cycle through the top four of each rotation, but winner-take-all and elimination games will be given consideration if the team has an ace that would be a guaranteed start (for example, the 2016 Indians would use Corey Kluber in the most important game if he has had ample rest).

The lineups will be identical in each game as a method of consistency. Any pinch hitters, pinch runners, defensive substitutions, or pitching changes are out of my jurisdiction.

The simulation will be conducted on whatifsports.com

With the ground rules out of the way, let’s proceed to the first round.

Team of the Decade: Preliminary Round

AL Matchup 1: 2011 Texas Rangers versus 2014 Kansas City Royals

Rangers 6, Royals 1

Royals 6, Rangers 3

Rangers 9, Royals 7

Rangers 8, Royals 1

Royals 7, Rangers 5

Royals 7, Rangers 6

Royals 7, Rangers 3

The Royals win 4-3. (-4)

AL Matchup 2: 2019 Houston Astros versus 2012 Detroit Tigers

Astros 5, Tigers 1

Astros 11, Tigers 3

Tigers 5, Astros 4 (F/10)

Astros 2, Tigers 1

Tigers 7, Astros 4

Astros 6, Tigers 4

The Astros win 4-2. (+11)

AL Matchup 3: 2017 Houston Astros versus 2018 Boston Red Sox

Red Sox 4, Astros 2

Astros 14, Red Sox 8

Red Sox 4, Astros 0

Astros 9, Red Sox 2

Red Sox 13, Astros 5

Red Sox 6, Astros 5

The Red Sox win 4-2. (+2)

AL Matchup 4: 2016 Cleveland Indians versus 2010 Texas Rangers

Indians 1, Rangers 0

Rangers 8, Indians 4

Rangers 10, Indians 9

Indians 8, Rangers 3

Indians 14, Rangers 13

Indians 8, Rangers 1

The Indians win 4-2. (+9)

AL Matchup 5: 2013 Boston Red Sox versus 2015 Kansas City Royals

Red Sox 9, Royals 6

Red Sox 9, Royals 7

Royals 9, Red Sox 3

Red Sox 2, Royals 1

Red Sox 12, Royals 2

The Red Sox win 4-1. (+10)

NL Matchup 1: 2011 St Louis Cardinals versus 2014 San Francisco Giants

Cardinals 6, Giants 3

Giants 14, Cardinals 5

Giants 3, Cardinals 1

Cardinals 10, Giants 4

Cardinals 6, Giants 5

Giants 13, Cardinals 1

Cardinals 1, Giants 0

The Cardinals win 4-3. (-12)

NL Matchup 2: 2019 Washington Nationals versus 2012 San Francisco Giants

Nationals 5, Giants 3

Nationals 2, Giants 1

Giants 4, Nationals 2

Nationals 3, Giants 2

Giants 4, Nationals 2

Nationals 7, Giants 3

The Nationals win 4-2. (+4)

NL Matchup 3: 2017 Los Angeles Dodgers versus 2018 Los Angeles Dodgers

2017 Dodgers 13, 2018 Dodgers 7

2018 Dodgers 5, 2017 Dodgers 0

2018 Dodgers 5, 2017 Dodgers 3

2017 Dodgers 8, 2018 Dodgers 6 (F/10)

2017 Dodgers 2, 2018 Dodgers 1

2017 Dodgers 11, 2018 Dodgers 5

The 2017 Dodgers win 4-2. (+8)

NL Matchup 4: 2016 Chicago Cubs versus 2010 San Francisco Giants

Giants 7, Cubs 1

Cubs 8, Giants 1

Cubs 13, Giants 0

Cubs 4, Giants 1

Giants 9, Cubs 7

Cubs 4, Giants 0 

The Cubs win 4-2. (+19)

NL Matchup 5: 2013 St Louis Cardinals versus 2015 New York Mets

Mets 5, Cardinals 1

Mets 7, Cardinals 6 (F/10)

Mets 2, Cardinals 0

Mets 2, Cardinals 1 (F/15)

The Mets win 4-0. (+8)

Standings:

AL:

  1. 2013 Red Sox
  2. 2019 Astros
  3. 2016 Indians
  4. 2018 Red Sox 
  5. 2014 Royals

NL:

  1. 2015 Mets
  2. 2016 Cubs
  3. 2017 Dodgers
  4. 2019 Nationals 
  5. 2011 Cardinals

Wild Card Games:

2014 Royals at 2018 Red Sox

Royals 5, Red Sox 4

Royals advance.

2011 Cardinals at 2019 Nationals

Cardinals 4, Nationals 3

Cardinals advance.

ALDS:

2014 Royals at 2013 Red Sox

Royals 14, Red Sox 4

Red Sox 19, Royals 12

Red Sox 21, Royals 0

Royals 4, Red Sox 2

Royals 5, Red Sox 2

The Royals win 3-2.

2016 Indians at 2019 Astros 

Astros 2, Indians 1

Astros 5, Indians 0

Astros 7, Indians 1

The Astros win 3-0.

NLDS:

2013 Cardinals at 2015 Mets

Mets 3, Cardinals 1

Mets 7, Cardinals 2

Mets 10, Cardinals 4

The Mets win 3-0.

2017 Dodgers at 2016 Cubs

Dodgers 6, Cubs 1

Cubs 3, Dodgers 0

Dodgers 4, Cubs 3

Dodgers 7, Cubs 2

The Dodgers win 3-1.

ALCS:

2014 Royals at 2019 Astros

Astros 4, Royals 3

Astros 3, Royals 0

Royals 13, Astros 9

Royals 9, Astros 0

Astros 3, Royals 2

Astros 9, Royals 2

The Astros win 4-2.

NLCS:

2017 Dodgers at 2015 Mets

Mets 5, Dodgers 0

Dodgers 6, Mets 5 (F/11)

Dodgers 9, Mets 4

Mets 3, Dodgers 0

Mets 5, Dodgers 4

Mets 4, Dodgers 3

The Mets win 4-2.

Team of the Decade Series:

2019 Astros at 2015 Mets

Astros 4, Mets 2

Astros 8, Mets 3

Astros 8, Mets 7

Mets 3, Astros 0

Astros 6, Mets 1

The Astros win 4-1. 

Final Thoughts:

As a whole, the results are slightly surprising, but the Astros and Mets rode strong rotations through to the end. The 2019 Astros had a three-headed monster of Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Zack Greinke which crushed teams. In a similar vein, the Mets utilized the trio of Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Noah Syndergaard to shut down opponents. 

Why were no World Series champions in the final four?

The randomization of seeding created unfortunate matchups as World Series winners eliminated each other. In the first round, five of the World Series winners were eliminated by other World Series winners. Of the remaining five World Series winners, the two Boston World Series teams were victimized by the 2014 Royals and the 2016 Cubs, 2011 Cardinals, and 2019 Nationals met tough pitching matchups.

Who gets my vote for Team of the Decade?

While I believe that Madison Bumgarner could single-handedly win a World Series with 24 broomsticks for teammates, my vote for Team of the Decade would be the 2019 Nationals or 2016 Cubs with the 2017-2019 Astros being the best multi-year run. The Nationals and Cubs mixed dominant rotations with electric lineups. While the 2019 Nationals had an atrocious bullpen, they had enough success to win a World Series. 

Be sure to follow me @MrSplashMan19 on Twitter for more simulations and other MLB content.

Also, be sure to check out the Overtime Heroics Forums page to join me and many others in some good discussion.

If you are interested in purchasing some Overtime Heroics Apparel, head over to our shop to rock some gear!

Be sure to check out our partners at Repp Sports! They offer the first-ever crowd-sourced, no carb, no sugar, energy drink called RAZE and much more! Use the link above or add the promo code OTH1 at checkout to get 15% off your order!

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here