After a long hiatus, we are back with action! UFC 249 is going down this weekend. I got you covered on some best bets I have found on this card. The Uriah Hall vs Jacare Souza fight was canceled but I included my breakdown at the very bottom.
This will be a series I will be doing for the foreseeable future for each event. Betting units will be tracked at prices that were available when the bet was placed. Advice on adjustments to lines will be given in breakdowns.
Bets are 0-0
Fabricio Werdum ITD (-130) via 5Dimes TO WIN 3 UNITS
Aleksei Oleinik (58-13-1) called Fabricio Werdum (23-8-1) out after he submitted Maurice Greene at UFC 246. That would be his 46th career submission but now he faces someone who can out grapple him. Werdum has won multiple gold medals in ADCC, IBJJF, and Pan American Jiu-Jist championships. Aleksei “The Boa Constrictor” wants to test his mettle against the more decorated grappler, but be careful what you wish for. It will be a stalemate if anything on the ground and Fabricio will be light years ahead on the feet. Oleinik has rudimentary striking at best and is going to be forced to stand with Werdum.
I think he doesn’t make it to the 15-minute mark of the fight and the fight most likely ends in a TKO but with as much as they will be on the ground, a sub isn’t out of the question for Werdum. A 2-year layoff for Werdum may have some people questioning this bet. I have taken that into consideration and still think Fabricio is built to win this fight. This is a case of being careful what you wish for and I strongly believe Fabricio gets him out of there. This number may go up. At around (-150) I would advise taking the amount down to win 2.5U.
Jairzinho Rosenstruik (+235) via 5Dimes RISKING 1 UNIT
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (10-0) is probably the most unpopular bet I will be giving out. Francis Ngannou (14-3) is everyone’s favorite violent machine right now. I would draw this line much closer to a pick-em and I believe the hype has this line inflated. Jairzinho Rozenstruik is undefeated going 10-0 with 9 his wins coming by KO and 7 in the first round! Francis does have 2 losses in the UFC and that can’t be overlooked. Francis has obviously gotten better in his last outings but he hasn’t fought the level of striker that “Bigi Boi” is.
I expect this fight to take place on the feet. With 75+ Kickboxing fights to his career, I think Rosenstruik will know what to do with the type of fighter Francis is. Both of these guys have anvils in both of their hands but Jair has a wider range of weapons to utilize. I see this fight ending in a KO for either Gentlemen or if it goes to a decision I favor “Bigi Boy” to outwork and out point Francis. Due to the inflated line, I think Jair is worth a 1 unit bet. I don’t see this line moving enough to alter anything.
Anthony Pettis (-140) via 5Dimes TO WIN 1 UNIT
All things being equal (which I think they kind of are) Anthony Pettis (22-10) has taken way less damage recently and has an edge in power on the feet. This is also a rematch from a fight on Fox in which Pettis won via first-round body kick. Donald Cerrone (36-14) has ran through the gauntlet at lightweight recently and I just don’t think he has had enough time to recover. Not only recent damage but prolonged over a professional career of 50 fights. Donald has struggled recently with getting mentally up for fights and still he wants to fight 3 more times in the very near future. While Pettis’ recent record on paper isn’t stellar either, he has had some success in his recent bouts.
A lot of people thought he was on his way to finishing Tony Ferguson. Pettis is coming off a KO win of Wonderboy a little over a year ago. Wonderboy had never been KO’d in his entire kickboxing and MMA career. I expect this fight to mostly stay standing with Pettis being able to absorb more Damage than Cowboy. If the fight does go to the ground I think it’s a grappling lovers gift, but will mostly be a stalemate. Pettis at 170 is a different animal and that is why I am picking him to win at UFC 249.
LEANS (I will be betting these but they aren’t tracked)
Vincente Luque (-260) Via 5dimes
Luque should have a better crisp fundamental striking. Price likes to do unorthodox maneuvers that will work well against mid-tier opponents but not the top of the heap. Price gets caught and probably finished. Like this enough as a parlay piece. Probably with Tony but nothing yet.
Greg Hardy (-190) via 5dimes
I like Greg Hardy as a parlay piece. His size and athleticism should be able to get it done for him. Both fighters perform well on the feet. The UFC experience should be a factor here. Also, I think the UFC really wants to get him another clean win and in their eyes have given him a favorable match up.
Uriah Hall (+110) via 5Dimes risking 2 UNITS ***THIS FIGHT HAS BEEN CANCELED***
I am picking and betting Uriah Hall against Jacare Souza. I think this is a clear case of one fighter on the way up and one fighter on the way down. Jacare is 2-4 in his last 6 fights one win being against Chris Weidman. Ronaldo did well in his last fight which was a losing effort against Jan Blacovitz. It was a labor-intensive clinch war. I don’t see this fight going that direction as Hall has more athleticism than Jacare (especially today) and will avoid those positions. Jacare certainly isn’t this cat-like Fighter we have seen over the years.
Hall will have the advantage on the feet with a whole toolbox of different explosive strikes to use. Jacare will have an advantage on the ground, but how much will that matter. Decorated grappler Antonio “Shoe Face” Carlos Jr had Hall’s back for half of their fight and he couldn’t get a finish. Jacare and ACJ are similarly world-class levels of Jiu-Jitsu players. Hall is also 2-4 in his last 6 losing only to top contenders and former champs. Hall has also won his last 2 fights while Jacare has lost his last 2. Getting Hall as a dog here is very tasty and that’s why I’m placing this bet. Solid 2U bet but if the line flips and he becomes the favorite, take him to win 1.5U
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