UFC 250 will take place in an empty Apex Arena in Las Vegas. The seats will be empty as the Covid-19 protocol is still in place. Looking to carry the momentum of the last event, I’ve got a couple more bets for you guys.
This will be a series I will be doing for the foreseeable future for each event. Betting units will be tracked at prices that were available when the bet was placed. Advice on adjustments to lines will be given in breakdowns.
- +4.15 units
- -5.77 units
What a great bounce back event! Things were looking pretty grim there for a second. I wasn’t ready to give up just yet. The only falter was the plus money ITD we got on Tyron Woodley. He looks like he can’t pull the trigger any more and Gilbert Burns looks like a future champ. Let us continue.
Cory Sandhagen (+100) via 5DIMES RISKING 2 UNITS TO WIN 2 UNITS
First off Cory Sandhagen is everything you want in a fighter to bet. He’s good everywhere, he rarely makes mistakes, and he is one of the most savage competitors to ever grace the octagon. Cory is undefeated in the UFC and seems to be improving every time we see him. Cory is the tougher fighter. The damage he takes never seems to affect him, we rarely ever see him take a step back. Aljamain Sterling does like to back up and pick his shots and I think he will cause him big problems. Cory is very, very good when he is moving forward and uses a variety of creative strikes. Sterling hasn’t seen the kind of stuff Cory will be putting on display. If it goes to the ground, where most people think Sterling will have an advantage, he’s gonna have to choke Cory unconscious. Sandhagen will simply not tap to joint manipulations as we saw in the Yuri Alcantara fight. Cory is good enough to scramble out of bad situations. I have been riding Cory for his UFC career thus far and am not hopping off the train now. I would bet it up to (-140) if the line movement is crazy on fight day.
Alonzo Menifield / Cody Stamann PARLAY via 5DIMES (+106) RISKING 2 UNITS TO WIN 2.12 UNITS
The only perceived advantage Devin Clark will have over Alonzo Menifield is in the grappling department, but even that may not be true. Menifield is very good on the ground we just haven’t seen it in the big show. Alonzo is huge and hits like a truck. He is a specimen at this weight class and looks like something out of a Marvel movie. I expect Alonzo to keep Devin at bay and land big shots probably finishing Clark. Alonzo is big for the class while Clark is small. Clark is visibly uncomfortable in there when things don’t go his way and they will not on Saturday night.
Cody Stamann is a powerhouse in his division. His only set back in the octagon coming to Aljamain Sterling where he did have success even in the grappling department before he got his back taken. Brian Kelleher is a serviceable Bantamweight but he’s not in the upper tier like Cody is. Cody also lost his 18-year-old brother last week and will be fighting with something I call Braveheart Theory. When a fighter faces tragic circumstance and has an extra motivating factor to win. Cody will overpower his way to a dominant performance. Fully expecting a 30-27 type of result or maybe even a finish.
Herbert Burns ITD (-110) via 5DIMES TO WIN 2 UNITS
This surging prospect will be fighting someone coming out of retirement and dropping down a weight class. In some circles that is all, you would need to know to place a bet on a guy. Herbert Burns is the brother of Gilbert Burns who we saw take out a former champion last weekend. The two siblings are training partners. Evan Dunham is tough, lengthy, and has good Jiu-Jitsu but his grappling is not on the level of his opponent. 70% of his wins have come by submission but most recently he knocked out Nate Landwehr in the first round. A Nate Landwehr who looked really good vs Darren Elkins in his last outing. Evan is a guy known for being tough but late in his career he has gotten finished twice due to strikes. Evan then retired said his body was giving up on him, and it was time to hang them up. I suspect he is coming back for an easy payday and I suspect it will be an easy finish for Herbert Burns. That’s why I am betting Herbert Burns to finish Evan Dunham, or inside the distance (ITD). Burns is currently (-125) ITD and I would still play it at that.
Anthony Martin (+115) via 5DIMES RISKING 1.5 UNITS TO WIN 1.72 UNITS
A lot of things are equal in the contest but a couple of things stand out to me. The kicking game of “Rocco” Martin is gonna give Neil Magny fits because he doesn’t check them. We have seen Magny susceptible to calf kicks before and the camp Anthony comes from is very good at them. Anthony will have the more powerful shots on the feet whereas Niel Magny relies on volume. This will play into Rocco’s hand because his fight IQ is very high and will capitalize on favorable positions. We are getting dog money on someone who in my opinion is a better fighter. I think the line is off and I’d play it up to (-120).
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