We are right in the middle of a string of events at UFC Apex Center. UFC on ESPN 11 goes down this weekend with a Heavyweight headliner that has title implications. I am here to give you my best bets for the event.
This will be a series I will be doing for the foreseeable future for each event. Betting units will be tracked at prices that were available when the bet was placed. Advice on adjustments to lines will be given in breakdowns. I give out some bets during the event live on twitter at @Ash1MMA
Obviously not what I want it to look like right now. I have enough confidence in my skills to move on. I am betting with real money. My empty seat betting sucks so far. I had a great first part of the year, so let’s see if I can get some of that magic back here. The breakdowns haven’t been bad. My fighters haven’t been performing and falling victim to the opposing fighters’ strengths. Short and sweet on these break downs.
Raquel Pennington / Bobby Green PARLAY (+120) RISKING 2 UNITS TO WIN 2.4
The level of competition Raquel has faced is far superior to “The School Teacher”. Reneau’s best chance is to get this to the ground, but even then, I don’t think she can submit Raquel. Raquel is not a slouch on the ground. Pennington’s wrestling should be enough to thwart Marion’s takedowns and advancement on the ground. I expect “Rocky” to punch her face off for 3 rounds and cruise to a decision or get a finish.
Clay Guida really has only one approach to fighting. Basic kicks and punches but it’s mostly to set up takedowns. I don’t think he’s gonna get the takedowns on Bobby Green. Green might even be a better MMA wrestler than him. He’s more athletic and has youth on his side. He’s fought better competition more recently. There will be room for his showboating in this fight as I don’t see Clay giving him any problems anywhere the fight goes.
I like both of these fighters just not at the high odds. They should both win and chip 2.4 units off that mountain at the top.
Shane Burgos / Max Rohskopf PARLAY (+160) RISKING 1.5 UNITS TO WIN 2.4
I will admit this play is a little riskier. I don’t do a lot of parlays for normal units like this. That said, I feel strongly about this card as a whole. I’m ready to get back to crushing.
Shane Burgos is an all-around better fighter here. The only thing he has to watch out for is Josh Emmett’s overhand right and left hook. I think he will get dropped at some point. He will be able to recover and style on Josh for the majority of the fight. Shane’s variety of strikes and larger size will be effective against Josh. Josh was losing to Michael Johnson badly before he knocked him out but Shane won’t make those same mistakes. I think Burgos is on a different tier of talent.
Max Rohskopf has a phenomenal ground game. Collegiate wrestler stand out. Has competed in high-level grappling matches. Austin Hubbard’s takedown defense isn’t great at all. I expect this kid to be all over Austin from the jump. This is a short notice fight but I think it works in Max’s favor because he’s more of a specialist. A specialist Austin Hubbard wasn’t training for. Max will submit him or win a unanimous decision.
Lyman Good (+120) RISKING 1 UNIT TO WIN 1.2
I think Lyman Good’s power will be too much for Belal Muhammad. Lyman will probably be taken down at some point but will work his way out of it. He will end up landing the bigger shots. Good is getting more and more comfortable in the UFC’s octagon every time we see him. Belal has a great all-around game but Lyman can crack, has a big size advantage, and I expect him to TKO him or win a decision. Even if he slows down in the third, I think he wins the first two rounds by a lot of pressure. I’m not sure Belal can take Good’s shots that I expect him to land.
Courtney Casey (+102) RISKING 1 UNIT TO WIN 1.02
Courtney Casey will probably be taken down at some point. Gillian Robertson will fail to get that early sub she is striving for and will fade. Courtney has an advantage on the feet and will be peppering her the entire time. The better all-around Fighter is Courtney Casey and in WMMA that’s who usually wins. We are getting a great price on this line.
Curtis Blaydes TO WIN IN ROUND 3 (+625) x.5 UNITS TO WIN 3.13
Curtis Blaydes TO WIN IN ROUND 4 (1025) x.5 UNITS TO WIN 5.13
Curtis Blaydes has already told everyone his game plan for this fight. He told us to not expect a stand-up war. With his athleticism and his wrestling background, he should have no problem taking this to the ground. When he gets it there he might have the best ground and pound in the division. I expect this to start to catch up to Volkov near the end of the second round. I think Blaydes will get a TKO finish in the 3rd or 4th round, maybe even on the feet if Volkov is exhausted from the wrestling.
Alexander has never fought a strong wrestler before especially not the level of Curtis. “Razor” Blaydes only two losses are to Francis and he is in the upper tier of the division where Volkov is a ring down. I like the finish is rounds 3 and 4 because if it hits round 5 I think they will both be tired and the finish won’t come. It will end up going to a decision. That said, I may change my mind of that and throw a little on round 5.
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