Thiago Santos vs Glover Teixeira
Odds: Santos (-250) Teixeira (+190)
Analysis: This fight can go 1 of 2 ways. Either Santos starches him fairly early, or we see Santos fight timid coming off a major injury, which will allow Glover to gain some steam and find success with his grappling. The better value is on the latter at +190, but I do not think Santos at -250 is bad either. With that said, I really like Santos to win this fight. I think his speed and willingness to throw early and often in fights will be too much for the aging Teixeira. Combine this with Teixeira’s willingness to back himself up against the cage and use his arms for defense rather than head movement and footwork and we have the making for a Maretta win by KO.
Pick(s): Thiago Santos ML -250 (3 units), Santos ITD -165 (2 units)
Claudia Gadelha vs Yan Xiaonan
Odds: Gadelha (+134) Xiaonan (-158)
Analysis: I like Gadelha in this spot. I do not love her in this spot though. Yan is a high pace and high-volume striker. With great cardio and athleticism to match, Yan has the tools to weather the takedowns and gas Gadelha enough during the scrambles without taking too much damage. My concern is Gadelha’s top control if she is able to get Yan down in the middle of the cage. If she does just that I could see this being an ugly split decision win for Gadelha but that’s not how I see it playing out.
Pick: Yan Xiaonan by decision at +105 (3 units)
Ian Heinisch vs Brendan Allen
Odds: Heinisch (-108) Allen (-108)
Analysis: There is only one way to bet this Fight. Either Heinisch by decision or Allen inside the distance. I lean toward Heinisch by decision. His cardio is just better and his ability to tire his opponents out with his active grappling that causes lots and lots of scrambles could be the key to victory for him. Ian Heinisch has to be careful in those scrambles though because Allen is very dangerous with his submission game and will go for the sub in any opportunity he gets. I think Heinisch cardio will just be too much for Allen though in the end.
Pick: Heinisch by decision +185 (1 unit)
Parlays and Props
Parlay: Romanov, Chikadze, Barcelos (-137) (3 units)
Super Parlay: Santos, Barcelos, Lewis, Chikadze, Romanov, Elkins (+367) (0.5 units)
Props: Arlovski vs Boser- Fight to go the distance (-112) (1 unit)
Elkins vs Garagorri- under 2.5 rounds (+128) (1 unit)