Week 16 of the 2020 NFL season kicks off on Christmas Day, with the Saints playing the Vikings. For DFS team managers, this week presents a new opportunity to win, and there are several intriguing options I have identified to help bring your team a win. Below, I will break down my best plays for each position group in my NFL Week 16 fantasy overview.
Patrick Mahomes (Salary: $8,500)
Of the high-priced quarterbacks, Mahomes is the one most worth the money. Mahomes is playing against the third-worst passing defense in the league, he is one of the best signal-callers in the game, and has an elite offense around him. You can’t go wrong here.
Jared Goff (Salary: $5,900)
Goff presents efficient value and should give your team decent to good numbers for a relative fraction of the salary cap. Goff might not single-handedly win the week for you, but he also should not ruin your week, and he is much more likely in my opinion to overachieve than to underachieve. Despite the Rams embarrassing clunker last week, Goff is still a talented QB with playmakers around him. Goff’s price may be somewhat depressed due to recency bias after their embarrassing performance last week, and this represents efficient value, leaving team owners more money to spend on high-end pieces elsewhere.
Justin Herbert (Salary: $7,400)
If you don’t want to pony up over 8 grand for Mahomes, then the Chargers rookie might just be your guy. Herbert has been a go-to for me in fantasy lately, and he has rewarded my investment more often than not. A smart and talented young signal-caller, the rookie has had success early in his career and put up some strong statistical performances, including last week’s 314 yard, 2 touchdown masterpiece.
Derrick Henry (Salary: $9,600)
Henry is the most expensive back on the board, but he is also arguably the best RB in the league who is going up against the 27th-ranked rushing defense.
Le’Veon Bell (Salary: $5,800)
Bell’s performance has been up-and-down, but in the opportunities Bell has had he has performed fairly well. Bell comes at a fairly affordable price this week and is playing against the 9th-worst run defense. With so much attention being focused on Patrick Mahomes and the pass catchers of this high-flying offense, expect Bell to make some plays if given the opportunity. It all comes down to opportunity for Bell. With Clyde Edwards-Helaire doubtful, expect Bell to take the majority of the snaps in the backfield and do some damage with his opportunity.
David Montgomery (Salary: $7,700)
Montgomery has been consistently productive over the past month, and looks to continue that streak against a Jacksonville run defense that is ranked third-worst in the entire league.
Davante Adams (Salary: $9,100)
If there was ever a time to invest nearly a fifth of your salary cap on one player, especially a non-quarterback player, Adams is the one. Adams has been on an absurd tear this season, and you can expect that to continue against the lowly passing defense of the Tennessee Titans. Oh yeah, and it also doesn’t hurt that he has that Aaron Rodgers guy throwing to him. He’s a pretty good quarterback.
Brandon Aiyuk (Salary: $6,700)
The biggest knock against Aiyuk is that his quarterback play has been inconsistent at best throughout the season. That being said, Aiyuk is on the verge of superstardom, he has had an incredible season and has a favorable matchup for this week.
Mike Evans (Salary: $6,100)
Mike Evans has an excellent quarterback situation with Tom Brady, one of the greatest to ever do it, he is playing the fourth-worst passing defense, the Detroit Lions, and he has a multitude of weapons around him for the defense to worry about. In theory, that is beneficial as Detroit will not be able to really double-team him that much, but I worry about a lack of volume having a negative impact on Evans’ statline.
Sammy Watkins (Salary: $5,000)
Watkins has not had a bad season, comes with a fairly low price tag, is catching passes from arguably the best quarterback in the league, is extremely talented, and is lining up against the worst passing defense. So, what’s not to like? Well, one thing is that Watkins still has unrealized talent and has been inconsistent. However, the biggest issue is the plethora of other weapons that the Kansas City offense features, and Watkins will be fighting for targets with Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, and even Le’Veon Bell, as well as potentially Clyde Edwards-Helaire out of the backfield.
George Kittle (Salary: $5,000)
Kittle had been arguably the best tight end in football this year, he comes fairly cheap, and 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan has said that he expects Kittle to play this weekend. The catch? San Francisco is playing against a top-five pass defense. I’d trust the talent to win out, but that may be something some fantasy owners may not be willing to take the risk on.
TJ Hockenson (Salary: $4,600)
TJ Hockenson is a talented young playmaker with a veteran QB throwing to him (assuming that Stanford plays), and he comes with a decent price tag. Keep an eye on Matthew Stanford’s status as game day approaches though, as that will play a major role in Hockenson’s value.
Defense and Special Teams
New Orleans Saints (Salary: $3,200)
If, like me, you tend to subscribe to the philosophy that you should grab a defense that won’t kill you rather than trying to win the game with your defense, the Saints provide security as well as some potential upside. At $3,200, this is a bit on the higher side of the defensive options, but also is an established defense with a track record of success. Also, the Saints elite run defense should slow down Dalvin Cook, taking out or at least limiting a significant part of the Vikings offensive game plan.
Enjoy my NFL Week 16 fantasy overview! Be sure to visit Overtime Heroics for more great content!