One of the biggest names entering free agency has agreed to a new contract. Aaron Jones has re-signed with the Green Bay Packers, agreeing to a four-year $48 Million deal. Jones returns to the team where he has been a dominant fantasy player for owners for years. However, choosing to return to the Packers over signing with a new team does have a significant fantasy impact on Jones and his teammate, AJ Dillon, in 2021 and moving forward.
Fantasy Impact on Packers Running Backs for 2021
By resigning with the Packers, Aaron Jones settles back in as a low-end RB1 with upside. Jones has had two great seasons in 2019 and 2020 in the Packers’ offense. Each season he has topped 1,400 total yards and over 10 touchdowns. Jones has never been given a proper workhorse role with the Packers, which requires him to be efficient with his touches.
I do not expect his volume to increase, which means Jones will continue to rely on being efficient with his opportunities. As long as he does, he will continue to produce for fantasy teams.
The other running back who is affected by Aaron Jones’s resigning is the second year running back AJ Dillon. The drafting of Dillon last year in the second-round signaled that the Packers were preparing to move on from Aaron Jones. Had Jones left in free agency, Dillon was primed to take over as the primary back. However, with Jones back on the Packers, Dillon is set to play the complementary role instead.
Dillon can still provide value to fantasy teams just as Jamaal Williams has in the past. Since Jones is not given workhorse volume, there are plenty of touches for the complimentary back. Williams has received close to 150 touches in each of the past two seasons, which should now go to Dillon. Should Dillon receive 10-12 touches a game, he could provide weekly flex value in the Packers offense and be a premiere handcuff back. If Aaron Jones goes down with an injury, Dillon would become a high-end RB2.
Fantasy Impact on Packers Running Backs for Dynasty
The dynasty impact of Aaron Jones resigning is slightly different than how it affects just the 2021 season. Aaron Jones dynasty value takes a slight hit. Entering free agency, Jones had the chance to become a top-five running back in dynasty had he moved to a team that would give him more touches.
However, now that he has re-signed with the Packers, Jones moves back down to being a low-end RB1 in dynasty. Jones is still primed for a great year in 2021, however, his value can take a considerable hit should the Packers move on from Aaron Rodgers anytime within Jones’s four-year contract.
If the Packers move to Jordan Love, it will harm Jones since the offense will not be as lethal with Rodgers at the helm. As long as Rodgers and Jones are together, Jones should stay within the RB1 conversation for dynasty due to his talent and efficiency.
AJ Dillon was a dynasty darling with the thought that Jones would leave the Packers this year. Now, Dillon has lost nearly all of his value in dynasty leagues. Dillon would need to overtake Jones to provide actual fantasy value for dynasty teams.
Dillon will become a free agent before the end of Jones’ new contract, which means he would hit the free-agent market without ever holding a proper starting role. Unless Dillon flashes as the backup to Jones, he will have difficulty securing a starting job in the future. Dillon is worth holding onto for the time being in dynasty leagues but could be off of rosters with a few years if he does not show true potential this year as Jones’s backup.
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