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2021 New York Mets Big Over/Under Predictions

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As the 2021 New York Mets have started their season late after the Washington Nationals series got postponed due to the virus, it is time to look at some over/under lines for the 2021 New York Mets.  In this article, I will be breaking down some of the over/under lines and making predictions on them for the 2021 season.

Jacob Degrom – Over 244.5 Strikeouts

In the era where pitchers are being used less and less in terms of total innings pitched, 244.5 strikeouts is a hard benchmark to meet. However, Jacob Degrom has surpassed this mark in 2018 (269), 2019 (255), and in 2020, he was on pace for 281 strikeouts if there was a full season. The only concern for this over prediction is that coronavirus could postpone games and create doubleheaders, which would reduce the amount of starts that Degrom could make.

Regardless, Jacob Degrom is the best pitcher in the world at the current moment, and I have faith that he will surpass 244.5 strikeouts unless he happens to get injured during the season. The real question is whether Jacob Degrom will win his third Cy Young award in 2021. 

Francisco Lindor – Over 31.5 home runs

Francisco Lindor was the blockbuster move that the New York Mets made in January, and he was recently signed to a three hundred and forty-one million dollar contract extension over a ten year period. I have confidence that Lindor will hit over 31.5 home runs because he accomplished the feat in 2017 (33), 2018 (38), and 2019 (32). Lindor should be eager to show New York fans that he was worth the prospects and the large contract, so I will be optimistic and give Lindor the over for home runs.

Edwin Diaz – Over 40.5 saves

This is a risky pick, as it relies upon Edwin Diaz maintaining his spot as the closer for the whole season, however, I think that there will be enough opportunities for Diaz to finally put his terrible 2019 season behind him and get to over 40.5 saves. In 2018, Diaz had 57 saves with the Seattle Mariners to go along with a 1.96 ERA. Was that fantastic 2018 season a fluke or was his awful 2019 season a fluke? Again, the back-to-back games due to coronavirus rescheduling could reduce his chances to close games, but an effective Diaz will be able to reach 41 saves in the 2021 season.

2021 New York Mets – Under 91.5 wins

I believe that the Mets will come close to 91.5 wins due to their impressive offensive lineup, but I worry about the health of the pitching staff with Noah Syndergaard (elbow) and Carlos Carrasco (hamstring) returning from injuries. Overall, the pitching staff is a big unknown and the Mets have not gone over 91.5 wins since 2006, so I will take the safer option and pick the under 91.5 wins.

Marcus Stroman – Under 3.75 ERA

Marcus Stroman opted out of playing in the 2020 season due to concerns about the coronavirus. With Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard slated to miss some time early in the season, Stroman is vital to the success of the team for the 2021 season. Stroman generates a lot of ground balls, and the Mets have improved their infield defense for this season to accommodate his pitching style. Stroman’s best pitch is his slider, which generates a 35.2 percent whiff rate and an opponent batting average of under .200.

Stroman also had a 2.70 ERA in spring training in 13.33 innings, so that is a good sign for him to have a good earned run average in the upcoming season. I believe that Stroman will be under a 3.75 earned run average because his career ERA is 3.76, and his All-Star 2019 season had him at a 3.22 ERA in a competitive AL East Division and then he was moved to the Mets.

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Main image credit: Embed from Getty Images

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