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UFC Vegas 24 Best Bets and Gambling Guide

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In this article, I’m going to give my five picks for UFC Vegas 24. I’ll break down each pick and explain why these are my UFC Vegas 24 best bets. After going 3-2 on last week’s card, I’ll be looking to rebound with a big card this week.

UFC Vegas 24 Best Bets

Alexandr Romanov Wins (-140)

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – NOVEMBER 07: Alexandr Romanov of Moldova punches Marcos Rogerio de Lima of Brazil in a heavyweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on November 07, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)

Opening my UFC Vegas 24 best bets, I have Alexandr Romanov at -140 against Juan Espino. The UFC did a good job matching these two together, as this is probably the best fight between two unranked heavyweights you’ll see. However, I do think that Romanov does have the advantage in this fight.

Both fighters look to utilize similar game plans when they fight, as they are both phenomenal grapplers. A key factor in this fight will be which fighter is able to land a takedown. I would give the advantage to Romanov here, as I think that Romanov is the stronger wrestler of the two and will be able to defend Espino’s takedowns while also securing takedowns of his own. Espino does have good jiu-jitsu, but Romanov’s heavy top pressure will neutralize any submission attempts from Espino.

Romanov will also have the advantage on the feet. Espino’s striking is very one-dimensional, with the majority of his strikes being him setting up a takedown or fainting a double leg leading to an overhand right. I also don’t know if Espino has the chin to handle Romanov’s power. I expect Romanov to win this fight by GnP in the early stages of the 2nd round, after draining Espino’s gas tank with his top pressure in the 1st.

Ricardo Ramos Wins (-105)

SAO PAULO, BRAZIL – NOVEMBER 16: Ricardo Ramos reacts to submission victory over Eduardo Garagorri in their featherweight bout at UFC Fight Night 164: Sao Paulo (Photo by Jason Silva, USA TODAY Sports)

The next pick on my UFC Vegas 24 best bets is going to be Ricardo Ramos at -105 against Bill Algeo. I was quite surprised to see that Ricardo Ramos was the betting underdog in this fight, and was even more surprised to see that money was coming in on Algeo. I think that this line contains a lot of recency bias from both fighter’s last outings. With Ramos losing to Lerone Murphy and Algeo beating Spike Carlyle.

Ramos is a much cleaner and more technical striker, and also has very good jiu-jitsu. Anywhere this fight goes, I see Ramos having the advantage. Ramos’ losses in the UFC have come from great strikers that carry a lot of power. I don’t think Algeo has the power to finish Ramos. This means Algeo will need to out-strike Ramos for the entire fifteen minutes to win, which is not very probable.

Ramos also has the ability to dictate where this fight takes place, as I see him having an advantage in the grappling. Algeo is a durable fighter, only being finished twice in his career. I expect Ramos to win this fight by decision, out-striking Algeo for a majority of the fight.

Whittaker vs Gastelum Over 4 ½ rounds (-140)

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (R-L) Kelvin Gastelum punches Ian Heinisch in their middleweight fight during the UFC 258 event at UFC APEX on February 13, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)

My pick in the main event on my UFC Vegas 24 best bets is the Over 4 ½ rounds at -140. This long-awaited matchup between Robert Whittaker and Kelvin Gastelum should make for a competitive and exciting main event. Since Whittaker’s loss to Adesanya, he has earned decision victories over both Darren Till and Jared Cannonier. Kelvin lost two in a row after his loss to Adesanya but he was able to rebound with a win over Ian Heinisch in February.

Whittaker is a -265 favorite in this fight, with Gastelum coming in at +210. I do expect this fight to be more competitive than the odds portray. However, I do have Whittaker winning, but I don’t like betting him at that price. Rather than picking a side in this main event, I look towards the Over 4 ½ at -140.

Both Whittaker and Gastelum have gone the distance in four out of their last five fights. Gastelum will most likely try and wrestle Whittaker, which favors well for the over. Whittaker has shown that he is ok with being patient on the feet and winning off of points. I don’t see either fighter getting finished, so I expect this main event to go the distance and cash the over 4 ½ rounds.

Alex Munoz Wins (+120)

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – AUGUST 08: (L-R) Alexander Munoz punches Nasrat Haqparast of Germany in their lightweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on August 08, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)

The first plus money pick on my UFC Vegas 24 best bets is Alex Munoz at +120 against Luis Pena. Munoz made his UFC debut against Nasrat Haqparast back in August of 2020. Munoz would lose that fight by unanimous decision, but there were some positives to take from that fight.

The main takeaway being his durability, absorbing 104 strikes. Haqparast was a very tough matchup for Munoz because of his great takedown defense and sharp striking. I see this matchup with Pena being easier because Munoz will be able to take Pena down at will. Pena has not shown great takedown defense in the UFC, defending takedowns at only a 45% rate.
This will be the key to victory for Munoz.

If Munoz can take Pena down and control Pena on the ground, I see him walking away with the win. Pena will have the advantage in the striking, but Munoz has shown me that he has the durability to not get finished by Pena. I expect Munoz to employ a wrestle-heavy game plan and accumulate a large amount of ground control time on his way to a decision victory over Pena.

Alhassan vs Malkoun Under 1 ½ rounds (-145)

DALLAS, TX – SEPTEMBER 08: Abdul Razak Alhassan celebrates after defeating Niko Price during the UFC 228 event at American Airlines Center on September 8, 2018 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

The last pick on my UFC Vegas 24 best bets is going to be the Under 1 ½ rounds at -145 in the middleweight bout between Abdul Razak Alhassan and Jacob Malkoun. Malkoun made his UFC debut in November, where he was knocked out in less than 20 seconds by Phill Hawes. He will be looking to recover from that with a big win over Alhassan. For Alhassan, he’s coming off a loss to Khaos Williams in which he was knocked out cold in 30 seconds.

Both fighters often finish their opponents in the first two rounds. Of Alhassan’s thirteen fights, eleven of them have ended in the 1st round and all of his ten wins have come in the 1st. Three of Malkoun’s five fights have also ended within the first two rounds. Many believe that both fighters could be fighting for their spot in the UFC on Saturday, so I expect both fighters to come out fast looking for a statement victory.

We know that both of these fighters have the power to knock each other out, and with their recent knock-out losses I assume whoever is first to land a big shot will finish this fight. However, I will say that Malkoun does have the ability to take this fight to the ground and submit Alhassan with his BJJ credentials. This fight is very hard to predict, but I can say that I’m confident this fight ends within the first two rounds.

Let me know what you think about my UFC Vegas 24 best bets, and if you agree or disagree with my picks. There should be some competitive and exciting fights on this card. Along with the high stakes main event between Robert Whittaker and Kelvin Gastelum. Should be a great night of fights, hope everyone enjoys them!


Follow me on Twitter @carterbergezMMA for updates on my work and live reactions to every UFC event. Also, follow the Overtime Heroics team on social media @OTHeoicsMMA to stay up to date with the latest news in MMA.

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