It seems odd that YouTuber Logan Paul is even a +500 betting underdog in his upcoming exhibition bout with 5-division world champ Floyd Mayweather this Sunday, June 6. The odds have actually fallen in recent days as Paul was a +900 underdog not too long ago. But, really, even +900 doesn’t seem right.
Given that Mayweather is a Hall of Fame-level fighter and, arguably, the best boxer of the last 25+ years and Paul is a novice pro whose one fight was a loss to a fellow YouTuber, it seems about right that the odds would be around +2000 or greater.
Bettors gambling on the upset have evened up the odds, of course. But there’s also a bit of wishful thinking out there, envisioning ways where Paul, who will have an 18-year, 6-inch height, 4-inch reach, and 30+ lb. weight advantage over Mayweather, could score the big-time upset.
Podcaster and UFC commentator Joe Rogan is one of those conjuring up a plan for Paul to do the near-impossible, leaning on the fact that Paul was an accomplished wrestler in both high school and college.
“If I was his coach, I’d be like ‘listen, mother****er, you are NOT outboxing the greatest boxer of all time,” Rogan said fairly recently in one of his podcasts. “‘What we’re gonna do is we’re gonna cover up, we’re gonna cheat, we’re gonna maul this guy, we’re gonna push him around. I want you to hold him…plant your feet and push him over your knee, he might twist his ankle and f**k his knee up and we’re gonna mug him in the clinches. Throw a punch, but don’t throw a punch like you’re even trying ro hit him. Just get close. When he’s throwing a punch at you, close the distance and tie him up and just try to wail him in the clinch because that’s the only time you’re gonna hit him.’
“I would never train a guy like him to try and box with Floyd…you are not going to be on the outside trying to outmaneuver, literally, the slickest boxer who’s ever walked the face of the Earth.”
Rogan would base the likelihood of Paul being able to maul Mayweather on the YouTuber’s wrestling acumen.
“We saw him wrestle Paulo Costa, who is a UFC middleweight contender, and you watch the scrambles, he was controlling Costa…he was keeping up with Costa…But you watched him move and you were like, ‘this kid can “f***in’ wrestle.’ And Floyd is not like this one-punch knockout power puncher…and he’s also 50 lbs. lighter…The weirdest thing that can happen is Logan can somehow or another tie him up and clip him, like, really hard because he’s a big guy.”
Rogan admitted, himself, that the above scenario was “very unlikely to happen,” but unlikely to happen is not “impossible.” Mayweather’s been away from the ring for four years, since he stopped UFC star Conor McGregor in 2017, and has not been in serious training since 2015, when he had his last “real” fight against Andre Berto. It’s possible that Mayweather could be caught cold, underestimating the threat of an opponent who, in a sane world, has absolutely no right to be sharing a ring with him. And if he gets clipped, it’ll be against someone significantly larger than him.
Stranger things have happened. Although, admittedly, not THAT much stranger.
Just imagine, though, if Paul WAS able to pull off that upset against Mayweather. It would be an absolute field day for Mayweather’s legion of critics and a legit stain on his legacy. It would also, based on the shifting betting odds, make some people a TON of money.