The Buffalo Bills finished 2020 as the second-ranked scoring offense. They however did not produce a valuable fantasy running back on the season. With the scoring opportunities that the Buffalo Bills will have and how high-powered their offense is with Josh Allen at the helm, that could change as soon as 2021. We will delve into the backfield and which player has a shot at fantasy football relevance.
Neither Zack Moss nor Devin Singletary would be considered burners. Both can make defenders miss and break tackles but are average in athleticism. Moss is the prototypical workhorse size at 5’10” 223lbs while Singletary is built more like a third-down back at 5’7″ 203lbs.
Moss ran a 4.65 forty-yard dash giving him a 47th percentile weight-adjusted speed score and Singletary ran a 4.66 giving him a 16th percentile speed score. Moss was injured his hamstring and was unable to participate in other drills but he seems to have at least comparable burst and agility to Singletary so I give Moss a slight edge in this category.
Both players were highly productive in college with Moss breaking out at 20 years old in his sophomore year and posting three seasons over 1,000 yards capping it off in his senior year with 235 carries for 1,416 yards and 17TDs. He had a 9.7% target share, which places him in the 76th percentile for college RBs and shows he is a pretty solid pass catcher. He did so for Utah in the Pac-12.
Singletary produced from the moment he stepped on a college field for Florida Atlantic but the competition is not quite as stiff in the Sun Belt. He posted over 1,000 yards every year with his best year coming in his sophomore season where he nearly reached 2,000 rushing yards! That is impressive in any level of college football. He then declared following his junior year.
2020 NFL/ Fantasy Football Production
The pair of third-round picks for the Buffalo Bills showed some flashes throughout the season, but neither found consistency enough to fully take the lead role’s reigns. Zack Moss dealt with a turf toe injury early which cost him three games and hindered his development and dealt with the shortened offseason due to COVID another factor to him being eased in.
Zack Moss managed to accrue 481 yards and 4 TDs on 112 carries while adding 95 yards on 14 receptions. This however does not tell the full story. Moss started to come on later in the season and things seemed to be clicking for him. He received over ten carries in three of the last four games and was named the starter for their opening playoff game. He, unfortunately, was injured early in that game and unable to return. He has since had ankle surgery but appears to be on schedule to return for camp.
Moss has an aggressive running style and is actually quite elusive for his size. He ranked seventh with a 29.6% juke rate, created the seventh-most yards per touch (1.71), and broke 13 tackle 8.6Att/ broken tackle. He also received more red-zone work than Singletary receiving 28 carries (15 inside of 10 yards) to Singletary’s 20 (eight inside of 10 yards) and producing more TDs. He seems to be who they prefer to get the goal-line work, getting 10 goal-line carries as opposed to Singletary’s three. Moss even proved to be a great pass blocker which is huge for a rookie. He ranked sixth in the league in pass blocking and we all know they want to protect their stud QB, Josh Allen. This could go a long way to helping him lock down a three-down role.
Moss produced five double-digit PPR fantasy games and finished as the RB39 to Singletary’s seven double-digit games and RB28 finish for fantasy football managers. Neither was overly productive for fantasy football purposes. Moss led them in PPR fantasy points per opportunity with 0.78 to Singletary’s 0.69 which is surprising with Singletary getting most of the work in the passing game which normally would give a player an advantage in PPR fantasy football.
Devin Singletary showed promise in his rookie year, but it was not enough to deter the Bills from drafting Moss in 2020 with similar draft capital. Brandon Beane was even trying to move up in the draft to grab Moss as they had a high grade on him before he eventually fell to them.
Singletary in 2020 was not a bad back himself. He started all 16 regular season games receiving 156 carries and turning that into 687 yards and two TDs while adding 269 yards on 38 receptions. His juke rate was a good bit lower than moss at 21.6% but he still ranked 26th. He did double Moss in breakaway runs with eight and was not far behind in yards created per touch at 1.67 (11th). Singletary did fall well below Moss with 17.3 attempts per broken tackle. He received far more targets with 50 and seems to be who they prefer in the passing game which is great in PPR.
Singletary also edged out Moss in yards after contact per attempt at 2.9 to Moss’ 2.4. Singletary was not a world-beater in 2020 but then again neither was Moss. Going into next season each player will have their own “truthers”.
The shift at the end of the season going in favor of Moss has me on his side in this debate. He was behind Singletary statistically in some categories but the two were close in most. I hate making excuses for players but the shortened offseason paired with his injuries, I believe, held him back to begin the season. His ability to pass block could earn him a three-down role, as he is a capable pass-catcher as well.
Fantasy football managers should feel great about getting Moss as their RB three or four in their drafts as his ADP is sitting at 99 or RB39 in PPR redraft leagues and 104 in dynasty leagues. We have seen what Singletary is but I don’t believe we have seen Moss at his ceiling.
Singletary is a bit behind him at 114 in redraft and 136 in dynasty leagues. I don’t blame managers for grabbing him if they miss on Moss just in case, but I don’t see a path where he gets the majority of touches moving forward. The most likely scenario is that Moss gets at least first and second down work along with goal-line while Singletary becomes a third-down back. I look for Moss to take a huge step forward in 2021 for fantasy football managers. Give me a shot at a 70/30 split in favor of Moss all day.
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Thank you for reading my Zack Moss vs Devin Singletary Fantasy Football article. Stats courtesy of PFR, PlayerProfiler, and Fantasy data. Check out the OTH Twitter page here, the OTH Football Twitter page here, go to OvertimeHeroics.net for all of your sports needs, and don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @FF_Schmuck for more fantasy football content.