UFC

UFC 265: Betting Breakdown

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Quick Recap from Last Week

Danny Chavez and Gloria de Paula had disappointing performances, with a point deduction saving money on Chavez ending in a draw. All three parlay pieces lost in an overall chaotic night in the UFC. Trevin Jones and Kyung Ho Kang had their fights canceled. After an overall down week, let’s make some money on an exciting PPV card!

Parlay Pieces

  • Ciryl Gane (-380)
  • Rafael Fiziev (-320)
    • Two-leg parlay: (-152)

Ciryl Gane proved against Volkov that he could remain defensively sound against a striker proficient at all levels. Derrick Lewis will need to rely on the hail mary approach to beating Gane, as he does not possess the reaction time, foot speed, or output to beat Gane on the scorecards. Gane should comfortably land kicks to the leg and body to maintain distance and avoid the knockout power of Lewis. Gane should coast to victory in a relatively boring decision victory, and almost any price you can play him at is reasonable.

Rafael Fiziev is one of the most efficient offensive strikers in the UFC. Bobby Green will find openings to counter and land in the pocket, but Green will be at a distinct power disadvantage, with less impactful kicks. Green looks to win by outpointing and using opportunistic wrestling to stymie opponents. Fiziev has a 100% takedown defense and explosive hips to stuff anytime Green tries to change levels. On the feet, Green and Fiziev might land a similar volume of strikes, but Fiziev will have multiple opportunities to KO Green due to his combination striking. Overall, Fiziev’s intent to create damage will be the difference-maker.

Live Dogs

  • Angela Hill (+115)
  • Pedro Munhoz (-105)

Angela Hill has made huge improvements since her first fight against Tecia Torres in 2015. The biggest reason Torres was able to secure a boring decision victory was tied into her ability to take down and maintain top control on Hill. Today, Hill has improved her takedown defense to 76% after having some early career struggles. Hill has become stronger and more intelligent, stuffing takedowns in the clinch. She has also improved her footwork and timing in her striking. In the first matchup, Hill chased Torres aimlessly, and Torres was happy to sit in top control as the crowd booed for the entire fight. Take Hill as an underdog in what should be a close matchup. Hill has the height and reach advantage and made more improvements in the past six years.

Pedro Munhoz has faced a murderers row of competition, so his matchup with Jose Aldo should come as no shock. Aldo used to be highly proficient as a leg-kicker while he faces Munhoz, a calf-kicking extraordinaire. Chito Vera was successful, attacking the legs of Aldo, but did not throw much else and allowed Aldo to pressure forward, eventually succumbing to a third-round full of grappling. Munhoz is active on his lead foot, slamming heavy calf kicks, front kicks, and powerful boxing combinations into his opponent. Aldo has had a solid transition to 135, but the pace and pressure of Munhoz, along with his grappling acumen, should lead to a difficult matchup for Jose Aldo.

Hammer Spots

  • Michael Chiesa (-105)
  • Casey Kenney (-115)

Vicente Luque has never faced a high-level wrestler in the UFC and has struggled with cardio after any extended grappling exchanges. Michael Chiesa has the ability to wrestle at an elite level for five rounds, with smothering pressure and submission attempts. While Vicente Luque is a highly proficient grappler, holding a purple belt in Luta Livre, Chiesa should be able to set his pace by entering the clinch and using his size advantage to get trips and top control. Luque won’t be able to use his series of front chokes given Chiesa’s varied wrestling approach. Luque needs to crack Chiesa’s chin, but Chiesa has shown improved offensive striking. Chiesa also possesses high-level striking defense, ducking and avoiding shots to enter the clinch and get to his bread and butter, the wrestling. My biggest bet of the night will be on Chiesa, who was at +105 earlier in the week. 

Casey Kenney comes off a difficult test, losing a tough split decision to former champion Dominick Cruz. Kenney had difficulty dealing with the awkward movement, level changes, and non-stop cardio of Cruz. Song Yadong does not possess the same type of intricacies to his game, and it certainly feels like Kenney is taking a step down in competition. While this line opened even, the bets are coming in early on Kenney. I will be placing a bet on Kenney, who I feel is the more well-rounded fighter with better output and scrambles.


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I first got heavily into MMA betting and started chronicling the UFC around the Max Holloway vs Ortega and Henry Cejudo vs TJ Dillashaw fights. I quickly became intrigued with stylistic match-ups, scouting fighters, and learning about their backgrounds. I started Chronic Combat Conversations with GuruScoutingMMA in January of 2021, and first started writing for Overtime Heroics in July of 2021. Please follow me @TBScoutingMMA on all social media and anywhere MMA related!