Just like that, the first week of the 2021 NFL season has come and gone, and the excitement surrounding the league seems to be at an all-time high. We saw two overtime thrillers, a few beatdowns, and some close and exciting matchups across the league. From a gambling perspective, underdogs went 12-4 against the spread with nine of them winning their matchups outright.
As for my picks, Week One did me dirty. I was 1-4 in my picks for a loss of 4.3U and have a lot to learn and a long way to go to make up for lost bets. The good news is, according to the Betstamp App, I achieved a closing line value of 2.4%.
This percentage indicates that while I lost these bets, at least I was taking bets that the books decreased the line after I played it, indicating sharper bettors were taking the same action. The other good news is the NFL Season is a marathon and not a sprint. Congrats to everyone who had a better first week, but there are 17 more to go before the playoffs.
You can follow all my picks on the Betstamp App and follow me there @slimeaction, though I am unsure how to track my teasers on there. Keep in mind these numbers and odds are dynamic, and for this exercise, 1U=$10, and that if you are wagering, make sure you only bet what you are comfortable losing. Also, the unit listed means the unit to win, so for a 2U bet at -110, I am actually risking 2.2 U to win 2U. I am not a professional bettor – I am just a fan that is looking to add some thrill to my weekends and hopefully comes out profitable at the end. Without further ado, let’s take a look at my best bets for Week Two of the 2021 NFL Season.
NFL Week Two Bets I am Playing:
2U Washington Football Team -3 -110 (PointsBet)
As a Washington Football Team fan, I am placing more emphasis on my picks surrounding the Football Team. I believe I know Washington inside and out and am trying to apply my knowledge of the team to lead to a profitable season. I got burned by them in Week One, but I am once again riding them in Week Two.
Last week, I anticipated our pass rush to cause Justin Herbert to be uncomfortable in the pocket and make some mistakes. Giving credit where it is due, the Charger’s offensive line dominated Washington’s defensive line in pass protection, and Herbert was able to make plays on crucial third downs to lead the Chargers to the victory.
Heading into their Thursday night matchup, Daniel Jones is currently 4-0 straight up as the Giants’ starter against Washington and 3-1 against the spread. The line opened at Washington -4.5 but swiftly moved down to Washington -3 with Taylor Heinicke announced as the starter for the injured Ryan Fitzpatrick.
While I was wrong about how our defensive line would impact the game vs the Chargers, after seeing what Denver did to the Giants offensive line Sunday afternoon, I have no doubt Washington will be able to generate a lot of pressure on Jones. Washington takes home the W Thursday and by a big margin.
1U New England Patriots (-4) (-110) (BetMGM)
I took this action on Monday and am already seeing great value as this has already turned into the Patriots -6. Bill Belichick does a great job against rookie quarterbacks, had an underrated defense, and should cause all sorts of trouble for Zach Wilson. While Wilson flashed on Sunday afternoon, the Jets offensive line provided him with little to no support, and I anticipate the Patriots leaving MetLife Stadium with a solid win on Sunday.
1U Antonio Gibson (Over 67.5 Rush Yards) (-117) (FanDuel)
Antonio Gibson recorded 20 carries for 90 yards against the Chargers last Sunday, and though the Giants have a stout defensive line and solid linebacking corps, I see Gibson hitting over this number on Thursday night.
Gibson had a costly fumble deep in Washington’s own end, but without that mistake, he could’ve easily racked up over 100 rushing yards during his 64% snap count. Washington’s offensive line seems much more comfortable run blocking than pass blocking, and if Gibson’s shoulder soreness does not get in the way, his snap count and rushing yards should increase.
1U 2 Team 6 Pt Teaser (New England ML)/(Seattle ML)
I’m doubling down on the Patriots this weekend – Mac Jones should do enough that he will keep them in the game and their defense looks to be among the top units in the league. As for Seattle, they came out with a big win in Indianapolis on Sunday and it looks like Russell Wilson finally has the OC to #LetRussCook. The Titans are pitiful on defense and while I do think they are a good team that will figure it out, it won’t be this week.
Season Record 1-4 -4.3U
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