After a one-week hiatus on best bet articles, apologies for missing Week 3, I am back on my mission to try to beat Vegas this NFL season and end up in the green. I posted my Week 3 picks on Twitter, and you can find them there and follow me @Slimeaction. Moving forward, I will always post my weekly picks on Twitter as well as in this article. I also add picks up until kickoff, so for the most up-to-date numbers available on the action I am taking you should follow me on Twitter. I will begin tracking all Twitter plays for this article as well.
After Weeks 2 & 3 I currently sit at 5-8 -4.5U for the season. I am yet to predict a Washington Football Team game correctly and I need to do a better job of eliminating bias in my decision making. I also keep getting burned by Kyle Pitts. After further review, I do not like the way Arthur Smith uses the talented tight end and I will be taking less action surrounding him.
In an attempt to try to achieve more closing line value, I opted to hop on early lines this week. My book was offering Week 4 odds after the conclusion of Week 3s Sunday Night Football and I locked in 4 wagers early. With that being said, during the season I am not only trying to beat Vegas but also improve upon my handicapping for seasons to come.
You may also notice that I am mixing up my unit system. This was recommended to me by a good friend who is a professional handicapper for the NCAAF and the NFL. My buddy John told me to bet on a 3U/5U system, the units representing either 3% or 5% of my bankroll for the season. Betting this way makes a ton more sense for money management purposes, and it also makes me be more cautious with the bets I take since 5% of my bankroll would equate to more dollars wagered than my original 2 unit bets. Without further ado, let’s see if what I learn will translate to Week 4 as I try to dig out of the small hole I am in. It’s a marathon, not a sprint.
NFL Week Four Bets I am Playing:
3U Washington Football Team (+1) vs Atlanta Falcons -110
I have yet to find any success betting on my favorite team this season – I am 0-3 ATS on Washington games. I am not blindly taking Washington every week – in Weeks One and Two I was very confident in my plays – but in Week 3 I made the mistake of being bias in my handicapping. All the signs pointed to Buffalo winning big, I ignored them, and I got crushed. The good news is I am 3-0 on player props related to Washington Football Team games.
Looking ahead to Week Four I saw Washington getting a point against the Falcons in Atlanta. While Washington does not deserve to be named a better team than anyone else in the NFL at this point, the Falcons are one team that Washington should pounce on. While Washington’s defense has been swiss cheese so far this season, Matt Ryan provides the perfect opportunity for this unit to bounce back. Ryan does not stand in the pocket in the face of pressure, and his offensive line is not great in pass protection. Washington will make him uncomfortable and win outright.
3U Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) @ New England Patriots -110
Another bet that is looking like it will have great closing line value, Brady’s return to Foxborough is by far the biggest event in the NFL this season to date. The Buccaneers are coming off a loss to the Rams where it was made clear that their secondary is in shambles. The Patriots, coming off a loss to the Saints, do not have the firepower to throw all over the depleted Bucs secondary. In an unprecedented matchup in terms of opposing head coach and quarterback, I do not think Bellicheck will be able to stop Brady, even though Brady will run his old offense against his former coach.
5U Kansas City Chiefs (-6) @ Philadelphia Eagles -105
Good thing I took this number after Sunday Night Football because immediately after the Eagles got beaten down by the Cowboys on Monday, the line reopened at -7. While KC has clear issues on defense, the Eagles will probably not even try to run all over them. At 1-2 so far this season, the Cheifs need to make a statement, and while it is not an easy task playing in Philly, the Chiefs have the firepower to win big.
5U Indianapolis Colts (+2) @ Miami Dolphins -110
Though it is only October, this is a must-win football game for Indy. The Colts came into the season with lofty expectations and are headed closer to a top 10 pick instead of a playoff birth. Carson Wentz appears to have no juice left in the tank, but I think the Colts defense will come out firing against their old signal-caller. I think the Colts win this game outright – their season depends on it.
3U Baltimore Ravens (+1.5) @ Denver Broncos -110
The Denver Broncos are playing great football, but they are also beating up on some of the worst teams in the NFL. In comes Lamar Jackson and the Ravens off a misleadingly close win that took an NFL record game-winning field goal to pull it off. While I do think Denver is actually a solid team, I think the Ravens are better, and they have a chance to prove it. This game very well could come down to a last-minute field goal again.
Season Record 5-8 -4U
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