UFC Vegas 43 Gambling Guide

Terrance McKinney Via First Round Knockout (+350)

If you haven’t seen Terrance McKinney fight, you may not understand this pick. According to the odds, McKinney vs. Fares Ziam is a pick-em fight, but what do the oddsmakers know? McKinney is the fireball kid reborn. When this kid throws punches, he is looking to detach your scalp. Terrance McKinney collects first-round finishes the same way Mario collects Koopa shells, he collects knockouts the manner Sonic collects rings. This kid is dangerous. He has seven first-round finishes!

• 0:07 R1
• 2:57 R1
• 0:43 R1
• 0:16 R1
• 0:17 R1
• 1:12 R1
• 0:07 R1

(Thank you, @LaSuer_off for posting these stats)

Seven first-round finishes?? Two 7 second knockouts?? You have to be nuts to fade this kid this weekend. McKinney to the moon. 1 round. (T-Wrecks is also an all-time nickname, can’t bet against that)

Natan Levy Outright (+105)

Natan Levy has a 6-0 pro record, and he has won one of two ways, decision or submission. This tells you everything you need to know about how he fights if you haven’t seen him before. Grapplers like this are tricky to bet props on because they’ll often be content to ride out rounds instead of attacking submissions and risking their position. Even the double chance is risky because you never know when they’re going to stop looking for that sub, posture up, and decide to commit assault with their elbows. This is why betting props on Levy isn’t particularly worth it. After an impressive Contender Series win, Levy is coming into his UFC debut at +105 and is worth the risk. If Levy is going to be the real deal, then Rafa Garcia is somebody he will need to be capable of dispatching. The scary part about this bet is that Levy has not fought since the previous DWCS appearance over a year ago. Depending on where you fall on the rest vs. rust debate, that either made you love this bet or hate it. Rest for the win this weekend.

Adrian Yanez KO/TKO (+100)

If you haven’t noticed the trend here it is: the Contender Series graduates are going to kill it this weekend. Adrian Yanez is probably the closest thing you can get to a lock this weekend. The odds reflect that as well, his mainline odds are sitting at -320 right now. That KO/TKO prop gives you some excellent odds though. The plus odds likely come from the fact that Davey Grant has never been knocked out before. Grant should consider changing his last name to granite because it seems like that’s what his chin is made of. Grant is a beast and super aggressive, but moving forward against Adrian Yanez is no easy task. This kid has unreal counter punching. He moves his head off of the centerline so fast even Dwight Schrute would admit he’s slower. Yanez being a striker first is why KO/TKO might be worth the better odds than a general finish. If Yanez catches a sub, that sure would be a bad beat. Let’s hope that nothing like that happens.

Sean Brady Outright (-150)

This has been far and away the most difficult fight to come up with a pick for. It is the most intriguing fight of the card, so the allure of gambling on it is incredibly strong. At first, Michael Chiesa seemed like the bet to make. He’s a UFC vet who has been in there with the best, incredible grappler, super nice guy, and his odds are sitting at +130, which is incredibly juicy. On the other hand, we have Sean Brady, who is also the owner of a next-level ground game himself. It’s hard. Sean Brady is 14-0 and has looked incredible on his path to that point, while the 170-pound version of Chiesa has proved to be a complete animal, going 4-1 across five fights. The deciding factor is obvious though, and it was staring us in the face this whole time.

Chiesa has a tiger tattoo, and Sean Brady has a tattoo of a dude choking a tiger out. Any seasoned gambler will tell you to HAMMER Sean Brady because of this tattoo discrepancy and they would be right to do so. This is actually an undisputed lock in every way shape and form. When the universe talks you have to listen.

Miesha Tate via Finish (+350)

Miesha Tate 2.0 has arrived and it was impressive. Her last time out she scored a ground and pound TKO and she can do it again. Miesha has been dripping with confidence since her return and it’s for a good reason. She is liable to win by the decision but vegas give you pick ’em odds for the mainline. Miesha showed in her last fight she is not only capable of scoring a finish but that she will be looking for it, and she’s got five rounds to do so. Ketlen Vieira is a formidable opponent, but Miesha is a former champ who could be even better than she was in the past. Betting on Miesha is incredibly alluring because it seems like she knows something Vegas doesn’t. It’s difficult not to be sold on her confidence, especially at +350.

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