While I did not post an article last weekend, (I apologize, I was away), I still took action for Week 10 and you can find all my picks on Twitter. Fortunately, for those who tail my article picks, you didn’t get any, and I had my first big losing week since the begging of the season, going 1-4 and losing 8.2U. Good thing I hit my one five-unit bet.
This losing week brings me to 25-19 +28.3 on the season and while last week stung, I’m still heavily in the green as we approach the final legs of the 2021 NFL Season. Last week, I had all my faith in Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, and the Thursday night stinker they produced on primetime led to my demise. Now, a new week brings new opportunities, and I am going to try to bounce back from my rough week.
Looking at the upcoming slate of matchups, the lines are razor sharp and it is tough to find value anywhere in the market. Regardless of that, I put in the time, energy, and effort to make picks, and while I may not see a huge edge, I am still looking to uncover value in the market. Make sure to follow me on Twitter because I update plays all weekend and may have more picks than posted in the article. Without further ado, let’s take a look at my best bets for Week Eleven of the 2021 NFL Season.
NFL Week 11 Bets I am Playing:
3U Washington Football Team +3.5 @ Carolina Panthers -110
After a stunning upset over Tampa Bay last week as 9.5-point home dogs, this line was expected to move the other way as it opened at Carolina -2. Yes, Cam Newton returned and played great with his former team last week, but are we seriously convinced Cam is back? Moreover, Washington is dealing with injuries to two of their top four defensive players. Yet, the Panthers’ offensive line is not good and Washington’s defensive interior will cause them issues. Ron Rivera must win this game. Not only for Washington’s playoff hopes but because he elected to sign both of Cam’s backups and not Cam. I’d take the 3.5 even if it was -120.
3U Cam Newton U 199.5 Passing Yards -114
While Cam Newton is officially the starter on Sunday, and 200 passing yards in today’s NFL is a measly number, I do not see Cam shredding up this defense like it is 2015. Yes, the Panthers have a bevy of weapons with Christian McCaffery, who brings run-after-catch yardage to the table, back in the lineup. However, I am not certain PJ Walker will not play at all. All in all, I am expecting a big day from the Football Team, and that starts with shutting down the Panthers’ passing attack.
3U 2 Team 6 pt Teaser Washington +9.5/Indianapolis Colts +13.5 -110
My reasons for taking Washington are obvious; I believe Washington is the better team and I think they win outright. While I do think the Panthers have a playoff-caliber defense, Washington’s defense has stepped it up in the past few weeks. Furthermore, I am also not sold on Cam being back. His presence may help the locker room, but is he really still a threat? Meanwhile, the Bills are trotting out a seriously injured offensive line against a stout defensive line and I do not anticipate Buffalo winning by more than 10.
3U 2 Team 6 pt Teaser Baltimore Ravens ML/Dallas Cowboys +8.5 -110
The Ravens singlehandedly lost me 13 units last week before I hit my 5 unit bet, but I am going back to the well and riding them again this week as a road favorite. Baltimore’s injury report is stunning with so many players absent, but I think Wink Martindale’s blitz packages will give Justin Fields all he can handle. In addition, the Cowboys, are indeed playing a seemingly rejuvenated Patrick Mahomes, but I feel comfortable having the key numbers of 3,7 and 8 covered for this game.
3U 2 Team 6 pt Teaser Washington +9.5/ U49 @ Carolina -110
I am heavily backing the Football Team this week in a game I do not see much scoring in. Both teams are stout defensively and their performance on that side of the ball has carried both teams. While Washington’s defense has disappointed this season, I am still under the impression Cam Newton is not going to put up gaudy numbers against his old head coach.
3U Detroit Lions U 15.5 Team Total Points -130
While I hate laying the -130 juice, I love this wager. The Browns are looking for a bounce-back game this week and this is the week to do it. While Jared Goff is objectively awful and I have no data on Tim Boyle, I do not believe he will be better than Goff, which is not saying much. Overall, sixteen points are not many, but the Browns need to make a statement to save their season and I trust their defense more than I trust Baker.
Last Week: 1-4 -8.2U
Season Total: 25-19 +28.3U
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