If you pretend last week was the first time a gambling guide was posted, the OTHMMA gambling guide has a winning record. So when all of your casual buddies come over this weekend to watch UFC 269, you can cite this post to look smart. Or you’ll look like a complete idiot if I go 0 for 5 (always a possibility). That doesn’t matter though, it’s not about winning bets, it’s about the friends we made along the way. (Also, if the picks do poorly, I will pretend like it didn’t happen).
Randy Costa to win VS Tony Kelly (-180)
Deciding what the early bet of the night would be was a struggle. Fan favorites up and down this fantastic card, and Ryan Hall by submission is right there. However, after a lot of thought, it became apparent. Randy Costa is far too good looking to lose this fight. Sure he’s a long guy with great kicks, and against Adrian Yanez showed off a great jab. All of this is true, but how relevant is it? The headshots of each fighter says it all. Think about it this way, who cares more about protecting their face from damage, hot people or not hot people? Hot people, of course. Hammer Randy Costa this weekend because everybody knows a man-rocket like that is protecting the money maker at all costs.
Tai Tuisvasa to win VS Augusto Sakai (-110)
I’m trying very hard to avoid props, and boy, let me tell you, this one is TEMPTING. Tai Tuisvasa is coming off of an incredible win in which he knocked out a women-beating bum who will not be named here. On the other hand, Sakai has been on the wrong end of a pretty tough two-fight skid. If the same Sakai that showed up to fight Rozenstruik shows up on Saturday, Tuisvasa is going to end that fight faster than a woman ends a conversation with an incel. NO PROPS THOUGH. This has evolved into an anti-prop bet guide, but if you were to bet on a prop this Saturday, Tai Tuisvasa by knockout would be the best choice. Just saying, don’t bet props, but if you did, this would probably be the fight to do it. (Tuisvasa by KO is at +140).
Dan Ige to win VS Josh Emmet (+145)
This is one of those sneaky bangers. Like when your friend who doesn’t watch MMA asks if these guys are good, you just look at him and go, “buddy… get ready”. Both guys have great wrestling and one-punch power. Last time out Emmett tore his ACL in the first round but still went to war with Shane Burgos. Emmett is scary, no two ways around it. If Emmett lived in Bikini Bottom, he’s getting into the Salty Splatoon no problem. After that KO against Michael Johnson, he was given a lifetime membership. All that being said, Ige is a beast. Ige has had two chances to take the next step to title contention, between his fight with TKZ and his fight with Calvin Kattar. He came up short both times but is granted another chance to take that step yet again this weekend. If Ige can avoid the terrifying power of Emmett, he should be able to get the job done. It’s been a while for Emmett considering that fight with Burgos was well over a year ago. Wherever you fall on the rest vs. rust debate is likely where your money will end up. More often than not, it seems ring rust is bad, and Ige is a tough first fight back.
Geoff Neal to win vs Santiago Ponzinibbio (+110)
So the deal with Geoff Neal isn’t precisely clear. At first, the most relevant part of this fight was if it would happen; due to Neal’s recent DWI arrest. Neal’s lawyer says there won’t be a gun charge, so it sounds like whatever weapon he had on him was legal, but it also sounds like he was, in fact, driving under the influence. Also, a quick google search will tell you that this didn’t end up affecting his fight. So… is it unethical to bet on a guy who just got arrested for driving drunk? Maybe? It’s not like he killed anybody (thank god). For the sake of Neal’s mental state, you have to hope this was just a dumb mistake. It is also important to note that this happened in Texas, and (just ballparking it here) 85% of Americans below the Mason Dixon line drive drunk consistently. Fingers crossed everything in the Geoff Neal camp is ok, because he’s got some good odds. Ponzinibbio is a scary striker, but he has a tendency to get kind of wild and Li Jingliang made him pay badly for that. Neal, like Jingliang, is capable of shutting the lights out. Those hands may as well be made of steel, and he throws his combos very crisp. Neal could easily get the finish, but as you already know, this is an anti-prop bet gambling guide, so don’t get greedy.
Dustin Poirier to win vs Charles Oliveira (-160)
Dustin Poirier is about to earn his flowers. He’s been battling his way through the trenches to get to this moment, and weirdly enough, there’s less pressure here. Considering this is for a belt, it may seem like a bad take, but this fight won’t be as widely watched/reported on as either of his fights with McGregor. Even though his skills have regressed, Conor McGregor is still the biggest star in combat sports. When he fights, everybody tunes in to watch, while Poirer’s wallet and brand have seen significant growth in the wake of his two wins over McGregor, this weekend still won’t be the same thing. Poirier won’t be met with millions of rabid Oliveira fans the way he was with McGregor fans. It’ll probably be a lot easier for him to prepare and focus. Outside of the mental factors, this is a favorable matchup for Dustin. His ground game only needs to be good enough to get him back to his feet without getting tapped. This matchup is a lot like Volk vs. Ortega. Volk was clearly a better striker, but Ortega was able to come within inches of a finish multiple times, even though he was losing. If Dustin enters a danger zone regarding Olivera’s submission game, the fight could end in the blink of an eye. The game plan for Dustin is simply do not get submitted. Easy.
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