UFC Vegas 45 Gambling Guide

Weekly Disclaimer

Jordan Leavitt to win vs Matt Sayles (-120)

Don’t even bother checking Tapology or Sherdog for this one. Everything you need to know can easily be provided to you right here.

Are you gonna bet against this guy? Good luck with that.

Harry Hunsucker to win vs Justin Tafa (+260)

Harry Hunsucker has one fight in the UFC (two if you count DWCS) and has not gotten a win yet. Here’s the catch, his UFC debut was against Tai Tuivasa. Reasonable that he should get another chance after that. His other UFC loss is against Jared Vanderaa, who also has a win over Hunsucker’s opponent, Justin Tafa. If anything, this shows Hunsucker and Tafa are on a similar level, yet Hunsucker is a massive underdog. These odds don’t make sense. According to MMA math (which never fails), these guys are at least similar. The big reason is evident though, how is anybody supposed to bet against a guy named Harry Hunsucker? He sounds like somebody who has a habit of getting into fights in wild west bars in the 1890s. Harry Hunsucker sounds like the kind of guy to fight in overalls and workboots. He sounds like the kind of guy you need to beat in a fistfight to complete the story of Red Dead Redemption. This is my kind of guy. Talent, speed, gas tank, power, throw it out the window, he doesn’t need those things to win. Harry Hunsucker is that dude.

Carlos Diego Ferreira to win vs Mateusz Gamrot (+155)

After all this time, to have only lost to Poirier, Dariush, and Gillespie is pretty impressive. The worrying part is that Carlos Diego Ferreira lost two in a row for just the second time in his professional career. Available spin zone though, last time CDF lost two straight, he went on to rip off 6 in a row. So this is actually just a chance to get ahead of his next big winning streak. On a more serious note, Mateusz Gamrot is not an easy fight. He’s got a dangerous submission game, he tore through Jeremy Stephens faster than Daniel Cormier tears through a chicken finger.

Jeremy Stephens and CDF aren’t on the same level, though, especially when it comes to grappling. Both of these guys are dangerous when the fight hits the mat, but CDF is more UFC tested than Gamrot is. It’s unclear who was the technical advantage, but Gamrot has a loss on his record to a guy who was making his UFC debut (Guram Kutatladze). The real deciding factor here was Gamrot’s awful nickname, though. “Gamer” is probably not something to identify with when you are a trained killer on the highest level. This makes CDF’s decision not to have a nickname seem quite wise.

Amanda Lemos to win by finish against Angela Hill (+200)

Amanda Lemos is a terrifying individual. She has a loss to Leslie Smith on her record, but that is very deceiving because it was at bantamweight, two weight classes up from where Lemos usually fights (20 pounds). Lemos doesn’t just win fights, she hurts people. She hit Montserrat Ruiz with such a powerful right hand that it echoed throughout the apex. The sound of her fist cracking against Ruiz’s chin was sickening. It would not be surprising to see Lemos go on a violent title run. Angela Hill is definitely her toughest test so far and doesn’t quit easily. This is also breaking the only rule I have established for myself: don’t bet on props. It’s just hard not to bet on Lemos, knowing how violent and powerful she is and considering she is a -310 favorite, the regular line doesn’t feel worth putting a bet on. This is an exception to the no prop rule because this woman hits like a train. It seems like +200 is a trap or something because it is so tempting, but I will go ahead and fall into that trap.

Stephen Thompson to win against Belal Muhammed (-220)

This is another one where the odds kind of stink unless you take Wonderboy to get the finish. There are some big + odds on here already, though, and if I take Wonderboy and Lemos to get the finish and they both win by decision, it is going to be an unbelievably painful loss. The good news is you can feel free to empty your account on Wonderboy because Belal Muhammed is simply not winning this fight. I am willing to put my non-existent reputation on the line and guarantee that Stephen Thompson pieces Belal Muhammed up on Saturday night. If Muhammed can take him down and hold him there, it will make MMA fans everywhere short circuit. Everything we know about fighting is wrong is Muhammed can go in there and get the job done. (Stephen Thompson by finish is +300 and to win by decision is -105).

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