Predicting the Miami Heat’s 2022 NBA All-Stars

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Circumstances surrounding this season’s NBA All-Star Game are much different than in previous seasons, as the commonality of players missing time due to COVID protocols is rampant throughout the league. The Miami Heat (24-15), who have experienced their share of COVID issues, have also dealt with the injury bug throughout the early part of their season, with both Jimmy Butler (tailbone) and Bam Adebayo (right thumb) missing extended periods of time.

Let’s discuss the likelihood of the Heat’s former all-star duo of Butler and Adebayo making the 2022 NBA All-Star Game, along with chances of Miami’s secondary stars in Tyler Herro and Kyle Lowry to make it as well.

Jimmy Butler

Despite Butler missing 16 of Miami’s 39 games of the season, he has been the leader of a Heat team that is currently in fourth place in the Eastern Conference. Averaging 23.2 PPG, Butler is producing his best scoring average since the 2016-17 season, and his defense, both on and away from the ball, is as good as it’s ever been.

The only thing potentially preventing Butler from making his sixth career All-Star appearance is his durability. Even if he stays healthy until February 3rd (the day that the full NBA All-Star rosters are announced), he still would have missed almost a third of the season.

Given his impressive body of work throughout this season, Butler has a fairly good shot of being selected, but I would not be surprised if fans and coaches decide to look elsewhere because of the length of Butler’s absences.

Percent Chance of Making 2022 NBA All-Star Game: 55%

Bam Adebayo

There are not a lot of centers that have such a wide and multidimensional skillset as Adebayo. His combination of defensive versatility, rebounding, facilitating and mid-range shooting make him a consensus top 5 big man in the NBA.

Unfortunately, this will likely not be enough to prompt Adebayo’s second career All-Star Game appearance, as the fifth-year big from Kentucky is currently out of the Heat’s lineup with a thumb injury that has sidelined him since December 7th. At only 18 games played this season, Adebayo has not been durable enough to merit serious NBA All-Star Game consideration.

Percent Chance of Making 2022 NBA All-Star Game: 5%

Tyler Herro

Averaging 20.3 PPG this season, Herro has elevated his play to a level that we have not seen from him before. He is the consensus frontrunner for the annual 6th Man of the Year Award, and some consider him to be in contention for his first career All-Star Game berth.

Herro’s All-Star candidacy is tricky; he has been the most consistent perimeter scorer on one of the best teams in the league, but I’m not sure if his play has warranted an NBA All-Star Game selection. His on-ball defense is still inconsistent at best, and with a 42% clip from the field, he has not been especially efficient.

Herro has taken a massive leap in his third NBA season but it still feels like he is at least a season away from warranting serious All-Star Game deliberation.

Percent Chance of Making 2022 NBA All-Star Game: 20%

Kyle Lowry

Lowry has kept the Heat afloat this season with his exceptional playmaking and ability to run the Heat’s offense, his tenacious on-ball defense at the point of attack and his ability to space out opposing defenses with his shooting. His rather low 13.7 PPG average might be what prevents him from making his sixth career NBA All-Star Game appearance, but his impact goes far beyond what the box score indicates.

Expect opposing coaches who have to gameplan against Lowry on a night-to-night basis to vote for the first-time Heat point guard in greater proportions than your average NBA fan does.

Percent Chance of Making 2022 NBA All-Star Game: 30%

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