UFC 270 Gambling Guide

The UFC is back

Jack Della Maddalena to finish Pete Rodriguez (no odds available at time of writing)

Betting on fighters who don’t have a UFC fight under their belt yet is difficult. These require some level of research. If no research goes in, then it’s just a guessing game. According to Google searches, this will be a good old-fashioned scrap. There are 13 finishes between the two of them. Twelve of those are by knockout (the other 1 is a submission by JDM). Jack Della Maddalena is the more experienced fighter of the two. He displayed unbelievable heart on DWCS to survive a very tight choke and easily win the decision. Pete Rodriguez only has four pro-MMA fights, and he won all four of them in the first round. JDM proved on DWCS he can not only go three rounds but keep a very high pace across all three. JDM’s experience is the difference here. Expect to see him get to Rodriguez in the second or third round to secure that finish. 

The Favorites Parlay (+235)

Parlays are often called sucker bets. They’re criticized by so-called “gambling experts” because “it’s placing 2+ bets to win 1.” Guess what? No one cares, nerds. The real suckers are the ones who risk more money on massive favorites just for a few bucks. Who goes down in history as the biggest dummy? The guy who lost ten dollars on a parlay with Amanda Nunes beating Julianna Pena in it? Or the guy who lost $318,000 on her? Parlays are great because it is low-risk high reward. This four-leg parlay has four legs, and all of them have odds north of -200. It goes as follows: 

• Said Nurmagomedov at -200 (never bet against a Nurmagomedov)
• Ilia Topuria at -510 (he’s terrifying)
• Michel Pereira at -280 (the UFC’s version of Michael Venom Page)
• Rodolfo Vieira at -265 (his opponent had a split decision with Sam Alvey)

That comes out to +235, and it is physically incapable of losing. There is more of a chance that the world ends than there is this parlay losing.

Brandon Moreno to beat Deiveson Figueiredo (-180)

Oh, how times have changed. The first time these two fought, Deiveson Figueiredo looked poised to rule over the 125lbs division for a long time. He was supposed to beat Brandon Moreno and then get his money fight with Cody Gardbrant. Around 13 months removed from the first fight, Brandon Moreno sits at nearly a 2/1 favorite after finishing Figueiredo in their second fight. Times have changed so much over the last 13 months that people were claiming Figueiredo shouldn’t be getting a third crack at Moreno. No matter how you look at it, he is 0-1-1. It makes sense to give him a shot at evening the score. Even so, there’s plenty of reason to assume he doesn’t get the job done. In their first fight, Figueiredo was unable to finish Moreno. That gave Moreno more confidence to take the center of the cage in the rematch, which proved to be a very effective strategy as Moreno dispatched Figueiredo within three rounds. The big narrative surrounding this fight is the difference training with Henry Cejudo may make for Figueiredo. The thing is, the last time these guys fought was seven months ago. How much better can a world champion-level fighter get in just seven months? There’s only so much he can improve from a skill perspective. The only difference Cejudo’s coaching will make is from a planning perspective. Moreno’s skills are just better, plain and simple. Despite being at a massive physical disadvantage with strength and size, Moreno controlled the center of the cage due to how good he is at fighting in the pocket. The path for victory isn’t there for Figueiredo. On Sunday morning, Mexico will still have a UFC champion. 

Francis Ngannou to beat Ciryl Gane (+125)

The narrative going into the main event this weekend is that Ciryl Gane is too much for Francis Ngannou. This narrative is so strong that Ngannou has been the underdog since the odds opened. People have forgotten that Francis Ngannou is not Derrick Lewis. Lewis is a dangerous individual and an incredible fighter, but Ngannou is far more athletic and can make people pay in more ways than Lewis can. People expect Gane to dance around on the outside for five rounds. While avoiding the cannonball punches coming his way will be no easy task, the factor people are not considering here is the wrestling. If Gane can take Ngannou down and maintain control, Ngannou will likely gas out trying to get back up. Here’s the catch; Gane is probably not going to be able to take him down. If Stipe Miocic, a lifelong wrestler, got bullied trying to take Ngannou down, there’s no reason to expect the same won’t happen to a guy who started his combat sports journey in Muay Thai. Gane will have to be much better than Ngannou in the striking to win this fight. The possibility of Francis Ngannou using his wrestling effectively almost seems more likely than the other way around. Expect Ngannou to silence the doubters and then promptly quit the UFC because he wants to lose to Tyson Fury in a boxing match for some reason.

Follow me on Twitter @Jimsam26 for more Combat Sports news and discussions. Also, make sure to follow @OT_Heroics for all of your sporting needs. Don’t forget OTHeroicsMMA for all things MMA.

Featured Image Credits To Embed from Getty Images