It’s said that the most important words in real estate are: location, location, location. Well, in Super Bowl LVI the key to victory for the Los Angeles Rams is
Pressure, Pressure, Pressure!
The Rams take on the Cincinnati Bengals in Super Bowl LVI at SoFi Stadium. There’s one major key to a Rams victory, and it’s getting pressure on Joe Burrow.
While that seems like the easy answer for just about any game of football, this game should take that to a new level. Joe Burrow has proven to be an exceptionally elusive and durable quarterback. Oh and don’t forget about his insane trio of receivers.
Burrow has faced a lot of pressure this postseason, especially early on. The Bengals’ offensive line hasn’t been anything to write home about. Many times he seems magical getting out of sticky situations, but the Rams are going to have to dial up the pressure to get Burrow frazzled and win this game.
The key numbers for the game are Burrow’s passer rating, adjusted completion percentage (via PFF), and P2S% (via PFF). This postseason, Burrows’s numbers when facing pressure aren’t great.
When facing pressure his passer rating drops from 103.6 to 77.6. His adjusted completion percentage also drops, but not as dramatically. It’s 82.7% when not facing pressure and 79.2% when facing pressure. That tells me that he’s been inaccurate with the football.
The worst number for this game is the pressure to sack conversion. Bengals opponents have converted 26.7% of their pressures. If the Rams defense can do this, they will almost assuredly win the Super Bowl. Burrow can win a shootout with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and company to throw to given time.
Burrow has yet to throw an interception when under pressure, but he’s going to eventually. The Rams should be able to take advantage of that. In the last ten seasons, teams that win the turnover battle in the playoffs have won 74.1% of the time.
The Rams don’t play a lot of man coverage. So, the key to getting pressure is keeping the holes in the zone tight and allowing the pressure to get home.
In the end, this game is about three key players for the Rams: Aaron Donald, Leonard Floyd, and Von Miller. If they do get pressure on Burrow, not only will it be a long night for the Bengals, it will be a typical Super Bowl blowout. The historical average margin of victory is 14, with 12 of the 20 Super Bowls with a margin of victory of a touchdown or less coming since 2000.
Can the Rams get the job done in Super Bowl LVI? Can the Rams make the stops when Burrow gets the ball out of his hands quickly? If the answer is yes to both of those questions, the Rams win going away.
Like most football games, this game will be decided in the trenches. Get ready, and buckle up. It’s going to be a fun ride if the Rams can’t get pressure on Burrow.
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