Alex Cobb Is Better Than the Numbers Show

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Looking at the basic stats, Alex Cobb has had a rough start to his San Francisco Giants tenure. The numbers show that he has been the most unlucky pitcher in the Major Leagues. The Giants have been great at finding great pitchers, yet some may think the Giants have missed on Cobb. However, the club has actually struck gold.

Alex Cobb has a 6.25 earned run average through seven starts. That is very bad, but this has not been his fault. To go with his 6.25 ERA, he has a 1.81 expected ERA. That is a differential of 4.44 between his xERA and his ERA. That is the second biggest differential in the league behind Cincinnati Reds pitcher Reiver Sanmartin. Cobb’s batting average against is .303, and his expected batting average against is .191, which is the largest differential in the league. His slugging percentage against is .439 and, his expected slugging percentage is .271, which is also the largest differential in the league. You get the point, Cobb is ridiculously unlucky.

Cobb has been excellent at limiting hard contact. He has an average exit velocity of 85.8 miles per hour, which is the sixth-lowest in the league. Cobb is third in the league in Barrels/Plate appearances percentage. In 31.2 innings, Cobb has 39 strikeouts and only 9 walks. Cobb not only has a chance to be a good major league pitcher, the numbers show he should be elite. The baseball season is long for a reason, you need a larger sample size to get a better grasp on players. Alex Cobb will be a prime example of this.

In his most recent start against the Mets, Cobb had a sequence of 3 balls in play that went as such

ResultExit Velocity(MPH)Expected Batting Average

This is just a small example but is telling of how Cobb’s season has been going. Alex Cobb is striking batters out, not walking batters, and limiting soft contact at the same time. The results are not there, but chances are, they will be soon.

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