UFC Vegas 57 is taking place on Saturday and is filled with relatively new prospects looking to break away from the pack. In terms of betting, the less the bookies know about a fighter, the better. In this article, we are going to take a look at each fight on the card and see where the value lies.
Chris Curtis vs Rodolfo Vieira
Chris “The Action Man” Curtis has made quite the impression since joining the UFC. Back-to-back knockout wins, both times as a moderate underdog, have made people reconsider his place in the division. He takes on BJJ maverick Rodolfo Vieira, who is 3-1 in the UFC, with each win by way of submission.
This one for me is a lot more simple than it looks. Curtis holds wins over guys like Brendan Allen, Phil Hawes and Andre Fialho. Those are a calibre of opponents that Vieira just hasn’t faced yet. Make no mistake, in a dominant ground position Vieira is a huge problem. Everywhere else though, Curtis outclasses him.
Chris Curtis by K.O/TKO @ -120
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Nate Maness
Once again, we find ourselves with an undefeated Nurmagomedov as a heavy favourite, this time, Umar. 2-0 with two finishes, this looks set up to be another track laid down for the hype train to toll over.
But is it that simple?
Nate Maness is a 14-1 fighter out of Indiana who is three for three inside the octagon thus far. Most recently finishing Tony Kelley by way of TKO, he at the very least is a good UFC fighter. He hasn’t done anything thus far to suggest he couldn’t catch Umar Nurmagomedov, and for that reason, I will be making a tiny bet on him to win. The most likely outcome though is that Nurmagomedov steamrolls him.
Nate Maness to Win @ +650
Thiago Moises vs Christos Giagos
A closer match-up on paper than it may appear, Moises vs Giagos is a tough one to pick an exact result for. That being said, Moises has fought and beaten a higher calibre of fighters than Giagos. Where the value I think is in this one, is the method of victory. Moises is favoured to get the finish, but it may be more likely he grabs a decision victory here.
Giagos managed to go the distance with the likes of Damir Hadzovic and Draxler Klose and could manage to do the same again, albeit on the losing end. In the UFC, the majority of Moises’ wins have come on the judge’s scorecards, and at +200, it seems a smart play.
Thiago Moisis by Decision @ +200
Josh Parisian vs Alan Baudot
Parisian fighting a man who fights out of Paris, France, Ironic. Josh Parisian takes on Alan Baudot at heavyweight, a division traditionally known for its knockouts. A near pick’em match-up, both men lost to Parker Porter by decision and will need a win here in order to prove their worth in the heavyweight division.
Going against the expected tendency, back this one to go the distance at a tasty price. UFC Vegas 58 looks full of potential stoppages, but this one looks like a very even match-up. With both men fighting to earn another chance, they will be reluctant to give in easily.
Fight to go the distance @ +110
Neil Magny vs Shavkat Rakhmonov
This is a huge test for Shavkat Rakhmonov. Neil Magny, a stalwart of the division has been the foil of many promising up-and-comers. Perhaps a lack of pizzazz, for want of a better word, may play into ours, and Magny’s favour. Rakhmonov has been vicious and efficient since stepping into the UFC, but his competition has been just good, not great. Finishing all three, Rakhmonov has gathered a considerable amount of hype, and rightly so.
Magny is 5-1 since 2020, with his sole loss coming on points to Michael Chiesa. Even prior to this though, Magny has a tendency to just simply outwork opponents and grind out a decision victory, so that’s what we go for here.
Magny to win by Decision @ +450
Arman Tsarukyan vs Mateusz Gamrot
The main event here is one that has the hardcore followers of the sport salivating. Arman Tsarukyan is seen as a probable title challenger in the near future and is on a 5 fight win streak. His sole loss came in his debut, a close fight against Islam Makhachev, who it would appear is right there in line for a title shot himself.
Mateusz Gamrot himself has been making a few waves. A physically imposing presence for the division, he lost his debut in a hotly contested fight with Guram Kutateladze. That loss doesn’t look terrible after last weekend, and since then, Gamrot has managed three straight finishes.
This fight for me is very hard to call. Gamrot is the perfect example of an underdog with great value and ordinarily would be one of my easiest picks. He hasn’t done a whole lot wrong and at +225, he really is an underrated fighter in the division and should be top ten in the rankings for a while to come.
Unfortunately, Tsarukyan is one of the few prospects that can already be verified as the real deal.
This fight could end up being a close affair, but if anyone has an edge, it is Tsarukyan. Look for his class to shine through later in the fight.
Tsarukyan to win @ -260
With plenty of great match-ups on paper, we can hope for, at the very least, some great fights.
Until next time, stay lucky folks!
Featured image credit to Ultimate Fighting Championship