UFC Vegas 57 goes down this Saturday, and that means only one thing for our fellow gamblers.
In this new series though, instead of looking for the “locks” with poor odds, we are going to try and find any hidden value so that you can join in the fun with twenty dollars instead of the expected $1000 a week bankroll.
That’s pounds or euros for my fellow less freedom-loving compatriots on the European continent. By picking out a few bigger prices and underdogs, it costs less to make more, make sense? So with everything laid out, let’s take a look at the UFC Vegas 57 card.
Vanessa Demopoulos opens up the card against Jinh Yu Frey, and she looks at a great price. At +230 she is a large underdog, but is it deserved?
Her opponent, Yu Frey comes into this one on a two-fight winning streak, both by decision against beatable opponents. Demopoulos won her last outing against Silvana Gómez Juárez in the first round by armbar, an impressive victory considering Juarez’s last performance. Her only other bout in the UFC was against JJ Aldrich, a loss which is forgivable considering how many good opponents Aldrich has beaten.
Yu Frey has three inches in reach, while Demopoulos is four years younger. The oddsmakers have weighed the form too heavily in their decision here, and for that reason, Demopoulos is of great value at UFC Vegas 58.
Demopoulos to win @ +230
Brian Kelleher is a tough, gritty fighter who makes you feel like he is working for his, and your, money. He takes on Mario Bautista, an MMA Lab fighter who has been in the UFC since 2019. Kelleher comes into this one as a +140 underdog, probably in part due to the physical disadvantages he faces. Giving up five inches of reach to a hard hitter isn’t easy, but “Boom Boom” is used to it.
Sure, Kelleher has lost, but who to?
Umar Nurmagomedov, Ricky Simon, and Cody Stamann are the last three, and those are tough fights for anyone in the top 10, let alone the top 15. Guys like Bautista are where Kelleher excels, and he has a killer instinct second to none. Trevin Jones finished Bautista then went on to lose twice, which makes me question the line logic here.
Kelleher to win @ +140
Raulian Paiva has fell victim to recency bias, and our bank accounts could thank us for that. He takes on Sergey Morozov, a fighter who is 1-2 in the UFC, has been submitted twice, and gives up all physical advantages to Paiva.
Yet Paiva is the underdog at +125. Before being stopped by Sean O’Malley, he had been a solid UFC competitor. With wins over Kyler Phillips and Allan Nascimento plus taking flyweight contender Kai-Kara France to a split decision, he really should be favored here.
Paiva to Win @ +125
UFC Vegas 57: A Bettors Dream
With more obscure fighters taking divisions by storm, the bookies have their hands full trying to keep on top of all the goings-on in each weight class. That is what I try to find, a consensus pick that was originally made by someone who is bad at MMA math. Hopefully, it works out and some of the readers can let Overtime Heroics know how they did this week.
Who are your locks of the week?
Featured image credit to Embed from Getty Images