Sunday Madness: Six Baseball Underdogs to Bet (6/23)
Saturday was another good day for the statistical underdogs. In the fourteen games where there was a statistical favorite (Atl-Wash had both teams at -105), six of them were won by the underdog. Before looking at six underdogs to consider betting on Sunday, let’s take a look at how we did with our projections over the past three days. In order to determine financial numbers, the calculations shown are if the reader had bet $50 on each game we picked.
Thursday 6/20: We went 3 for 4. The bettor would have ended up $150 on the day.
Friday 6/21: We went 2 for 5. The bettor would have ended up $9.50 on the day, even though they only won 2 games. Thanks to Miami for being +210 and taking care of business.
Saturday 6/22: We went 3 for 6. The bettor would have ended up $75 on the day.
Now, let’s take a look at our “super six” underdogs to take in Sunday’s Major League Baseball action.
Chicago Cubs (+100) vs. New York Mets, 2:20 PM EST Start
The most anticipated pitching match-up on Sunday may be happening at Wrigley Field. The New York Mets send Jacob DeGrom to the mound, and the Cubs will be countering with Cole Hamels. Both pitchers have been fantastic as of late, and this can certainly turn out to be a battle of elite pitchers.
Jacob DeGrom had a 4.85 ERA after his start on April 26. Since that time, he has lowered his ERA all the way down to 3.26. He has given up two runs or less in nine of his last 10 starts. Just like last season, however, DeGrom has received no run support from his offense. Of those nine starts where DeGrom gave up two runs or less, he only got a win in two of those starts.
Cole Hamels has had an extraordinary June. In his four starts this month, he has given up one earned run over 29 innings of work. This means his June ERA is 0.31. On May 27, his ERA was 4.02. In his four starts since that time, his ERA has dropped all the way down to 2.85. The Cubs have won 10 of the 15 games that Cole Hamels has started this season.
This is a powerhouse pitching match-up that could go a few different ways. The Mets have already earned at least a split of the series, after winning games on Friday and Saturday. Due to the lack of run support DeGrom regularly gets, coupled with the Cubs losing two straight games at home, look for the Cubs to win the final game of the series and earn a series split.
Miami Marlins (+155) vs. Philadelphia Phillies, 1:05 PM EST start
The fans in Philadelphia are officially getting nervous and restless. After losing two of three games in Atlanta, and getting swept in Washington, the Phillies returned home to face the Miami Marlins, who have the worst record in the National League. Phillies’ fans were hopeful that their squad could turn around their recent losing streak. This series, however, has just made fans even more nervous, as the Marlins have taken the first two games of the series.
The Marlins have been riding their young pitching staff to success in the month of June. In their 11 road games in June, the Marlins are 8-3. Even though they have the worst record in the National League, they do rank 6th in ERA and 4th in opponents batting average.
One of the Marlins key young pitchers this month has been Sunday’s starter, Jordan Yamamoto. This will be his third start of the season, and if it is anything like his first two, the Marlins will have a very good chance to finish off a sweep in Philadelphia. Yamamoto has given up no runs over 14 innings of work, and has a WHIP of 0.64. Both of his starts came against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Squaring off against Yamamoto will be Enyel De Los Santos. De Los Santos has only thrown seven innings in the big league this season, all of them in relief appearances. Over those seven innings, he has given up five runs and three home runs. If the Phillies are going to end their six game losing streak, they are going to need a great pitching day from De Los Santos and their bullpen.
To quote the musical Hamilton, the Marlins are “young, scrappy, and hungry, and they’re not throwing away their shot.” They have the chance to sweep a division rival on the road tomorrow, and you should bet them with confidence to do so.
Chicago White Sox (+129) vs. Texas Rangers, 3:05 PM EST start
Even though this is June, Sunday’s game between the White Sox and the Rangers could eventually play an important role in the AL Wild Card race. Both teams are currently within four games of the wild card, and each team isn’t sure if they will be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline.
The Rangers will send Adrian Sampson to the mound to get the win in the rubber match of this series. Sampson has a 4.40 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP on the season. Sampson has not been good in his last two starts (against Boston and Cleveland), giving up 11 runs in eight innings of work.
The White Sox will send Ivan Nova to the mound in Sunday’s action. Nova’s season numbers are absolutely terrible this season. He sports a 6.01 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP. If you look at his recent starts, however, one will see that he had a lot of bad outings from April and May to overcome. Nova has given up four runs or less in eight of his last nine starts. He also only threw 70 pitches in his last start, so his arm should be fresh and ready to go.
With the pitching match-up slightly favoring the White Sox, bet the White Sox with confidence today to win the game and the series.
Los Angeles Angels (+123) vs. St. Louis Cardinals, 7:08 PM EST start
The homecoming for Albert Pujols this week at Busch Stadium has been one of the best scenes we have seen all season in baseball. Cardinals fans could not have been happier with the results of Saturday’s game. The Cardinals won the game 4-2, but in the seventh inning they got to salute their longtime hero Albert Pujols. Down 4-0, Pujols blasted a solo home run and Busch Stadium went wild. They gave him a standing ovation, and he took a curtain call, which sent the stadium into a frenzy. It truly was an amazing scene.
The Cardinals have won the first two games of the series, and will be looking to complete the sweep on Sunday. They will send Miles Mikolas to the hill to achieve this task. Mikolas has had an up-and-down season, and has won only one of his last seven starts. Mikolas is 5-7 on the season, with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP.
Tyler Skaggs will be on the mound for the Angels, as they look to squeak out one win in the Albert Pujols homecoming series. Skaggs is 6-6 on the season, with a 4.61 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. The Angels have won Skaggs’ last two starts, both of which came on the road (Toronto and Tampa Bay).
This should be a very even game, but take the Angels today in a close game to win the final game of the series.
Kansas City Royals (+131) vs. Minnesota Twins, 2:15 PM EST start
The series between the Royals and Twins has been closer than most baseball fans expected it to be. The division leading Twins are 50-26 and have won two of the first three games, but the Royals performance in this series is not indicative of their 26-51 record. Kansas City took the opening game in the series, and Minnesota took games two and three, but it took extra innings to win game three on Saturday.
The Twins send Michael Pineda to the mound to extend the Twins winning streak to three games. He has been very consistent in May and June, as he has given up three runs or less in each of his last seven starts. Even though he has been consistent, he has received a no decision in his last four starts. On the season, Pineda has a 4.76 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.
The Royals will send Homer Bailey to the mound on Sunday. Bailey has a 4.82 ERA and a 1.39 on the season. Bailey has been phenomenal in his last two starts, giving up no runs in 13 and 2/3 innings of work. From June 1 to the present, Bailey’s ERA has dropped from 6.05 to 4.82.
With Bailey’s recent pitching success and the Royals young offensive talent, bet the Royals today to even the series at two games a piece.
Baltimore Orioles (+155) vs. Seattle Mariners, 4:10 PM EST start
The Baltimore Orioles offense has found recent success in Seattle this weekend. After losing 10 straight games, the Orioles ended their losing streak by winning 8-4 in Seattle on Saturday. They have scored 17 runs in their last two games, and are showing some competitive signs of life. Trey Mancini also returned to the line-up after missing a few games with an injury.
In Sunday’s match-up, the Orioles’ Gabriel Ynoa will square off against Seattle’s Yusei Kikuchi. Both pitchers have been less than stellar this season, as they both have ERA’s over 5.00. Look for this game to be a high scoring affair, and if you are looking for a flier to take in Sunday’s action, the Orioles are not a bad pick to make. Look for them to build on Saturday’s win, and follow up their 10 game losing streak with a winning streak.
For today’s odds article, go to https://overtimeheroics.net/index.php/2019/06/23/oth-daily-odds-6-23-19/