Monday was a decent day for statistical underdogs, as two out of five games with an underdog were won by the underdog. Our column did not do well yesterday, going 1 for 4 in the games we picked. We were down $75 on the day, so in our twelve days of this column, we are 35 for 72 and are up $312.24 over that twelve day period (with all 72 bets being $50). Due to a full lineup of MLB action today, we will return to just taking underdogs. Here are nine underdogs that you should consider betting on Tuesday.
Toronto Blue Jays (+140) vs. Boston Red Sox, 7:07 PM EST Start
This weekend in London did not go as the Red Sox had planned. They found themselves in two slug-fests with the New York Yankees, which is not a recipe for success this season. Over the two games, they gave up thirty runs. We shall see how the long flight from London, and the possible jet-lag, will influence the Red Sox in their first game back on American soil.
The Toronto Blue Jays have been a different team as of late. That all started with a series in Boston last weekend, in which they took two out of three games. They scored at least five runs in all three of those games. Since then, they were swept by the Yankees in Yankee Stadium (they lost the three games by a total of four runs), and then took three of four from the Royals at home. Their offense has been on fire as of late, as they have scored five runs or more in thirteen of their last fifteen games.
Tuesday’s pitching match-up features youth vs. experience.
The Blue Jays send Trent Thornton to the mound, who is 2-5 on the season with a 4.60 ERA. He is glad to be back home, as his last four starts have been on the road. In June, the Jays have won games against the Yankees and Astros that Thornton has started. On June 21, Thornton gave up two runs in 6 and 1/3 innings against the Red Sox in Fenway Park, before his bullpen blew the lead.
The Red Sox send David Price to the mound. Price is 5-2 on the season, with a 3.36 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. He has not received a loss in a start since April 27., even though the Red Sox have lost four of his last nine starts. Price has given up three runs or less in 11 of his last 12 starts, including a win at Toronto on May 20 in which he gave up two runs in five innings.
With the Blue Jays bats on fire as of late, the Red Sox coming back from a tough London trip, and David Price due for a letdown, bet the Blue Jays to win game one of this series.
Pittsburgh Pirates (+110) vs. Chicago Cubs, 7:05 PM EST Start
Man, did we have this game wrong on Monday. We told you to bet the Cubs with confidence because the Pirates bats had been cold all weekend in Milwaukee. Well, they rebounded to the tune of 18 runs on Monday night. In their last eight games, the Pirates have scored 11, 1, 14, 10, 3, 1, 1, and 18 runs. Which Pirates offense will make an appearance tonight?
The Cubs will get Kyle Hendricks back for tonight’s start. It is expected to be in a limited fashion since it is his first start since returning from the IL with a shoulder injury. In addition, the Cubs did not send Hendricks to the minors for a rehab start before bringing him back. This means that the Cubs will probably have to use a long reliever to follow Hendricks. Their only two candidates for that role were not good in their previous outings. Mike Montgomery gave up five runs in 2 and 1/3 innings of work in Cincinnati on Friday. Tyler Chatwood gave up six runs over five innings of work on Thursday against Atlanta.
The Pirates will counter with Joe Musgrove. Musgrove had a phenomenal April, giving up three runs or less in all five starts. He faltered in May, giving up five or more runs in four of his six starts. In June, he has gone 3-1 in his four starts, giving up three runs or less in each of his three wins, while giving up six runs over four innings in his one loss.
The Cubs gave up runs in seven of the eight innings that the Pirates batted in Monday’s game. While the bats may not be that hot tonight, the Cubs bullpen has been shaky as of late, so take the Pirates to win game two of this series and spoil Hendricks’ return to the mound.
Chicago White Sox (-102) vs. Detroit Tigers, 8:10 PM EST Start
In a battle of AL Central teams, the White Sox host the Tigers for the first game of a three game set on Tuesday. The Tigers have been really slumping of late, going 1-9 in their last 10 games. On the season, the Tigers have only scored 271 runs, which is 28 less than any other team in all of baseball.
The White Sox look to take advantage of the slumping Tigers on Tuesday. They will send Reynaldo Lopez to the mound. Although his season numbers look really bad (6.12 ERA and 1.58 WHIP), Lopez has given up three runs or less in three of his last four starts. In addition, he has given up only three earned runs in two starts against the Tigers this season.
The Tigers will counter with Matthew Boyd. In his five June starts, he is 0-2 with a 6.21 ERA. The Tigers, which have been struggling, have lost eight of Boyd’s last nine starts. In his only outing against the White Sox this season, he gave up two runs in six innings of work. He did take the loss in that game, however, as the White Sox won 4-1.
Look for the White Sox to take this game, and for the Tigers to continue their downward spiral.
Philadelphia Phillies(-104) @ Atlanta Braves, 7:20 PM EST Start
Cue the roar of Braves fans at SunTrust Park today as the game starts. Free-agent signing Dallas Keuchel will make his home debut for the Braves this evening. Keuchel has been less than stellar in his first two starts, giving up seven runs in 10 and 2/3 innings pitched (5.90 ERA). In those two starts, he has allowed three home runs. He will not have an easy pitching match-up in his home debut.
In his last start against the Braves, Aaron Nola was roughed up, giving up five runs in 4 and 1/3 innings of work. Since that time, however, he has been spectacular. In his last two starts, he has given two runs over 15 innings of work, striking out 10 batters in each start. He is 6-2 on the season, and the Phillies have won four of his last five road starts (including a win at Atlanta on June 15).
This series has the potential to set-up how the post all-star break part of the season will look in the NL East. If the Braves can win this series, they will push their lead to at least 6.5 games in the division. If they lose this series, Philadelphia will be within five games of the division lead, and will be motivated going into the all-star break.
Look for Aaron Nola to pitch well tonight in Atlanta, spoiling the home debut of Dallas Keuchel.
Seattle Mariners (+130) vs. St. Louis Cardinals, 10:10 PM EST Start
In the first of a three game inter-league series, the Mariners host the Cardinals on Tuesday night. The Mariners are currently on a four game losing streak, while the Cardinals are 4-6 in their last 10 games. Both teams are looking to rack up some wins to build some confidence going into the all-star break.
The Cardinals will send Jack Flaherty to the mound on Tuesday. Flaherty has not won a start since May 14 and he was hammered in his last start (seven runs in 4 and 2/3 innings). On the season, he is 4-5 with a 4.75 ERA, and the Cardinals have lost seven of his last ten starts.
The Mariners plan to use Matt Carasiti as an opener on Tuesday night. Since being called up from the minors, Carasiti has had three one scoreless inning outings. Most likely, the Mariners will then go to Wade LeBlanc after that. LeBlanc has been spectacular in June, going 3-0 and giving up two or less runs in four of his five outings.
Look for the Mariners to end their four game losing streak and win game one of this series.
Kansas City Royals (+160) vs. Cleveland Indians, 8:15 PM EST Start
The Royals and Indians will play each other for the second time in just over a week. They played a series in Cleveland last week, that saw the Indians take two out of three games. The Royals will be looking for revenge in this series in Kansas City.
The Royals will send Jakob Junis to the mound in game one of the series. Junis has been decent as of late, giving up four runs or less in five of his last six starts. His last start was against Cleveland, and he gave up four runs in six innings of work. The Cleveland bats were very cold this weekend, getting two runs in three games at Baltimore (who has given up 520 runs this season). Look for Junis to surprise some people tonight.
The Indians will send Trevor Bauer to the mound tonight. Bauer defeated the Royals in his last start, giving up one run over 6 and 2/3 innings of work. Bauer is only 6-6 on the season and has been inconsistent at times this season, especially against teams he has faced multiple times.
He faced the Tigers twice in June, and gave up five runs and ten hits in the second of those starts (first was a complete game). He faced Oakland twice in May, and gave up four runs in six innings in the second start (gave up no earned runs in seven innings in the first game). He faced the White Sox twice in May, and they hammered him both times (14 runs in 12 innings). He faced Minnesota twice this season, and he gave up five runs in the second start (only one run in the first start).
Due to Bauer’s inconsistencies against teams he faces multiple times, and the Indians bats being very cold this weekend, look for the Royals to take game one of this series tonight. Also, the only time the Indians visited Kansas City this season was back in April, and the Royals swept that series.
Los Angeles Angels (+130) @ Texas Rangers (8:05 PM EST Start)
What a difference a day makes. When I wrote this column yesterday morning, I picked the Rangers to win this match-up. Mike Minor vs. Jose Suarez is still today’s match-up. Today, I am changing my pick and now will take the Angels. The Angels will be playing this game with very heavy hearts, as pitcher Tyler Skaggs was found dead yesterday afternoon.
This pick has nothing to do with stats, this is all about a gut feeling. On paper, the Texas Rangers have the advantage in the pitching match-up. The Angels are in such a tough situation right now, and their mind may be on their fallen comrade. I have a feeling that they will rise up in Skaggs’ memory and put on a great effort tonight. Mike Minor may be an all-star pitcher, but he is facing an Angels team tonight that is angry. I think they take their anger tonight out on the Rangers and win tonight’s game.
Oakland Athletics (+100) vs. Minnesota Twins, 10:07 PM EST Start
The Oakland Athletics are 7-3 in their last 10 games. They are currently 0.5 games back of the second AL wild card spot. They have been playing great baseball as of late, but they welcome the tough Minnesota Twins to town on Tuesday.
The Twins have been mediocre in their last ten games, going 5-5. In their last two road series, they lost two out of three to the White Sox (this past weekend), and split a four game series in Kansas City (two weekends ago). Both of those teams are currently not in playoff contention. Let’s see what they can do tonight against a team that has won three in a row and has been playing well as of late.
The Twins will send Jake Odorizzi to the mound. After a spectacular May, he has been mediocre in June. He has given up 11 runs in 15 and 1/3 innings of work in his last three starts (6.46 ERA).
The A’s send Daniel Mendgen to the hill. He has given up one run or less in four of his six starts this season, including giving up no runs in six innings in his last start in St. Louis. Look for Oakland to continue its recent hot streak and win game tonight over Minnesota.
Flier: Miami Marlins (+185) @ Washington Nationals, 7:05 PM EST Start
Patrick Corbin will start tonight’s game for the Nationals. It appears that he has righted the ship after having a tough start to June. After giving up five or more runs in three consecutive starts, he has given up just two runs in his last fourteen innings of work (one of those outings was at Miami last week).
Zac Gallen will be on the mound for Miami. He has a 3.60 ERA in his first two starts, including giving up three runs against Washington in his last start. Gallen had shut down the Nationals through five innings in his last start, but gave up one run in the sixth and left two men on base when he exited the game. Both of those runners ended up scoring.
Gallen has some extra motivation tonight, as he may be one of three Marlins pitchers that could get sent back to the minors with the return of Caleb Smith this weekend. If Gallen pitches well tonight, he may cement a permanent spot in the Marlins rotation.
The Miami Marlins are 6-4 in their last 10 games, and in their last four road series, they have won series in Philadelphia, San Diego, and Milwaukee. They also split a four game set in St. Louis. Look for the Marlins to give Corbin a rougher time than they did the last time these teams met, and look for the Marlins to steal this game tonight.
For today’s overtime heroics odds article, visit https://overtimeheroics.net/index.php/2019/07/02/oth-daily-odds-7-2-19/