Wednesday Winners: MLB Underdogs to Bet (7/3)

Tuesday was a good day for statistical underdogs, as eight out of fifteen games with an underdog were won by the underdog. Our column did pretty well yesterday, going 5 for 8 in the games we picked. We were up $133.08 on the day, so in our thirteen days of this column, we are 40 for 80 and are up $445.32 over that twelve day period (with all 80 bets being $50). Here are the underdogs that you should bet with confidence on Wednesday.

San Francisco Giants (+118) vs. San Diego Padres, 9:10 PM EST Start

Shaun Anderson went 3-1 in his six June starts. How will he fare in his first July start?

Our column took the Giants as an underdog on Monday, and it was the only game we got right that day. We stayed away from the game yesterday, and the Giants won again. Now they go for the sweep in San Diego this evening. The Giants, who have scored the second fewest runs in the National League, have come alive this week. They have won by the first two games by a margin of 23-6. San Diego is going to need a good pitching performance to hold down this hot offense.

The Padres will send Cal Quantrill to the mound in a spot start. In his six starts this season (last one was on June 14), he was 1-2 with a 5.23 ERA. He has four appearances in the bullpen since his last start, having scoreless appearances in three of those four outings.

The Giants will send Shaun Anderson to the mound. On the season, Anderson is 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA. He has given up three runs or less in eight of his nine starts this season. In his only start against San Diego this season, he gave up two runs in six innings, earning the win in a 4-2 ballgame.

The Padres on the season are only playing .500 ball at home (23-23). The Giants are statistically a better team on the road this season than at home (20-22 on the road, 18-25 at home). The Giants have won their last four games against San Diego, and look for them to finish off the sweep tonight in San Diego.

Oakland Athletics (+100) vs. Minnesota Twins, 9:07 EST Start

Mike Fiers has quietly become one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last two months.

Wednesday night’s Twins-A’s match-up features two eight win pitchers. Kyle Gibson goes to the mound for the Twins. He is 8-4 on the season, but has been a little inconsistent as of late. He has given up four or more runs in three of his last four starts, in which his ERA has risen from 3.75 to 4.21 on the season.

Mike Fiers goes to the mound for the A’s. He has become one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball this season, giving up three runs or less in his last twelve starts. In his last three starts, he has given up only one earned run in each of those three outings. The A’s have won seven of Fiers’ last eight starts, with Fiers getting the win in five of them.

Look for the A’s to stay hot (four game winning streak, 7-3 in their last 10) and for Fiers to continue his consistent streak tonight. Take the A’s to win this game.

Texas Rangers (+116) vs. Los Angeles Angels, 8:05 PM EST Start

The Rangers turn to Ariel Jurado to even the series against the Angels on Wednesday night.

The Los Angeles Angels came out firing on Tuesday night, beating the Rangers by the score of 9-4. Tonight’s pitching match-up features two 23 year old pitchers. The Angels send Griffin Canning to the mound. Canning is 3-4 on the season, with a 3.79 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. He has given up four runs or less in all eleven of his starts, and he gave up one run in five innings in his only start against Texas this season.

The Rangers will turn to Ariel Jurado to even the series. Since becoming a full-time starter, Jurado has given up three runs or less in five of his seven starts, and he has won four of those starts. In his only start against the Angels this season, he gave up two runs in 6 and 1/3 innings of work, and got a no decision in that start.

The Rangers dropped out of the second wild card spot, falling behind both the Indians and the A’s after last night’s loss. Take the Rangers to win tonight’s game and even the series at one game apiece.

Seattle Mariners (+110) vs. St. Louis Cardinals, 10:10 PM EST Start

How will Mike Leake do on Wednesday night against his former team, the Cardinals?

Wednesday night will give Mike Leake the opportunity to pitch against one of his former teams, the Cardinals. Leake has been inconsistent this season, going 7-6 with a 4.63 ERA. He did go 3-1 in his five starts in June, so that is a positive that he can build upon tonight.

The Cardinals send one of Leake’s old teammates, Adam Wainwright, to the mound. Wainwright hasn’t won either of his two starts since returning from the IL. He gave up five runs over 12 innings in those two starts (3.75 ERA).

The Cardinals have been struggling over the last week, losing six of their last seven games. The Mariners have won five of their last six home games, and look for that trend to continue tonight. Take the Mariners to win tonight’s game, behind a decent outing by Mike Leake.

Kansas City Royals (+145) vs. Cleveland Indians, 8:15 PM EST Start

Mike Clevinger has struggled since returning from the IL. Will that trend continue tonight?

If you are a regular reader of this column, you have seen that we often like the Kansas City Royals as an underdog, and often pick against the Cleveland Indians. There is no specific reason for that, we just make our picks based on the match-ups we see. Tonight will be no different.

Kansas City sends Danny Duffy to the mound tonight. Duffy is 3-4 on the season, but has given up four runs or less in eleven of his twelve starts. He has to find a way to keep the ball in the park tonight, as he has given up five home runs in his last two starts. Duffy has not faced the Indians yet this season.

Cleveland sends Mike Clevinger to the mound. He has been horrible since returning from the IL, giving up 12 runs in 6 and 1/3 innings pitched since his return (13.27 ERA). Clevinger has not faced the Royals yet this season.

Look for the up-and-coming Royals offense to do some damage against Clevinger tonight, and even the series at one game apiece.

Baltimore Orioles (+185) @ Tampa Bay Rays, 7:10 PM EST Start

John Means was the only Baltimore Oriole to be selected as an all-star this season.

Since being made a full-time starter, John Means has been phenomenal this season. In his eleven starts, he has given up three runs or less in ten of those starts. He has given up one run or less in seven of those eleven starts. He will be recognized for this amazing start to his pitching career, as he was voted to go to the All-Star Game next week. On the season, Means is 7-4 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.

The Rays will be starting Ryne Stanek as an opener in this game. Stanek has done very well in this role, posting a 2.64 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP on the season. The Rays have won the first two games of the series by the score of 6-3, and Stanek hopes to continue their recent success.

Look for Means to continue his great season and keep the Orioles in the game tonight. He only received the loss in one game over the months of May and June(4-1 with four no decisions). Take the Orioles to steal this game on the road tonight.

Milwaukee Brewers (+120) @ Cincinnati Reds, 7:10 PM EST Start

Sonny Gray struggled in his last start against the Brewers. How will he do tonight?

The National League central division has so much equity, and this match-up has illustrated that fact. The Reds (the last place team in the division), and the Brewers (first place team in the division) have split their last six match-ups. Tonight’s game will feature two pitchers that are looking to redeem themselves from their last start against this opponent.

The Reds send Sonny Gray to the mound tonight. Gray is 4-5 on the season with a 3.94 ERA. In his first start of the season against Milwaukee, Gray threw six scoreless innings. In his second start against them, he gave up four runs, six hits, four walks, and two home runs over 4 and 1/3 innings of work.

The Brewers send Jhoulys Chacin to the mound. In his first start against the Reds, Chacin got the win and gave up two runs in 5 and 1/3 innings of work. In his second start against them, he gave up five runs, six hits, and two home runs over 4 and 2/3 innings of work. Chacin did give up one run in five innings against a hot Pirates offense in his last start.

The Reds have been sitting between five and eight games back in the division for a while now. Every time they get a chance to get that deficit under five games, they seem to lose their next game. Take the Brewers tonight to beat Sonny Gray and the Reds.

Pittsburgh Pirates (+120) vs. Chicago Cubs, 7:05 PM EST Start

Chris Archer left his last start with hip discomfort. How will he perform tonight?

This NL Central series has shown two teams that seem to be going in opposite directions. The Pirates are 7-3 in their last 10 games and have pulled to within four games of the division leading Brewers. The Cubs are 4-6 in their last 10 games, and been very inconsistent as of late. While they do have the second best home record in the NL (29-16), they also have the second worst road record in the NL (16-25).

The Cubs will send Yu Darvish to the mound. Darvish is win-less in his last eleven starts. Over those eleven starts, he has seen his ERA go from 5.02 to 4.98. Over these starts, he has been inconsistent, giving up four or more runs in five of those starts. The Cubs have won five of these eleven starts, Darvish just has not gotten the win in any of them. In his only start against Pittsburgh this season, Darvish got the loss, giving up five runs in 5 and 1/3 innings of work.

The Pirates send Chris Archer to the mound tonight.. He is suffering from a hip injury that caused him to leave his last start, but apparently he is good enough to pitch tonight. The Pirates have won five of Archer’s last six starts, including two wins against Milwaukee, and a win against Atlanta. He has given up four runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. He has yet to face the Cubs this season.

The Pirates find themselves only four games back from the division lead. Look for them to stay hot tonight and win game three of this series against the Cubs.

Flier: Toronto Blue Jays (+250) vs. Boston Red Sox, 7:07 PM EST Start

Chris Sale has had a rough season, going 3-7 with a 3.82 ERA

If you’re looking to get a little riskier on Wednesday, take Toronto at home against Boston. The Blue Jays are starting a rookie, Jacob Waguespack, who has struggled in the minors this season (2-6 with a 5.30 ERA). In his only professional appearance this season, he gave up two runs in four innings, while striking out seven batters.

Chris Sale has had a rough year. The former Cy Young Award winner finds his record at 3-7 this season. He has faced Toronto twice this season, giving up nine runs in nine innings of work. In his outing against them on June 21, he gave up seven hits, four runs, and two walks in five innings of work. Sale is 0-1 with a 8.00 ERA in his two starts this season against Toronto.

Toronto has scored six or more runs in each of their last six games, and in nine of their last ten games. Remember that Toronto did beat Boston two out of three games in Boston earlier this month. They are a good high risk, high reward play on Wednesday night.

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