Youcapper Picks: WNBA 7/5/2019

There are four WNBA games going on today, but I will be focusing on two specific games that I believe will hit the under.

Atlanta Dream at Seattle Storm 
Opening: -6.5, 146.5
Current: -8.5, 147

The Storm come into this game as the second best defensive rated team in the league and the Dream as the worst offensive rated team. Both teams are in the bottom half of the league in regards to PACE, this likely means we will see a lot of set offense in this game. Both teams are also in the bottom three of the league in effective field goal percentage. 

The Dream will be on two days of rest but extra rest won’t help the Dream’s offensive woes. The team is 5-1 on the under when rested 2 or more days. A slow pace, solid defensive, and inefficient shooting calls for a low scoring game.

Youcapper Picks: Under 147

2019 Supporting Trends:

Atlanta Dream:

  • 5-1 on the under when playing after two or more days of rest
  • 4-1 on the under against Western Conference teams

Seattle Storm:

  • 10-4 on the under this season
  • 3-0 on the under after a game that went over the total

New York Liberty at Phoenix Mercury 
Opening: -8, 158
Current: -7.5, 160

The Phoenix Mercury currently own the lowest PACE in the WNBA and turn the ball over just 12.9 times a game, good for second best in the league. With the New York Liberty off just one day’s rest, they’ll likely allow the Mercury to control the tempo and play a slow and steady game. 

Both teams are in the middle of the pack when it comes to offensive efficiency. With a slower paced game, I see some value with an inflated total due to the Liberty putting up 84 against the Storm two days ago. The total has already moved up 2 points within hours of the opening line, this gives under backers a little more breathing room.

Youcapper Picks: Under 160

2019 Supporting Trends:

New York Liberty:

  • 3-0 on the under off one day rest
  • 5-1 on the under when less rest than opponent

Phoenix Mercury:

  • 3-1 on the under when facing an opponent whose previous game went over their total
  • 4-2 on the under as a favorite

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  1. Pingback: OTH- Daily Odds 7/5/19 - Overtime Heroics

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