OTH- Daily Odds 7/27/19

OTH- Daily Odds 7/27/19 is part of a daily series providing you with the odds for all major sports playing that day.

MLB

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Just like yesterday, we will go through some games and give you our regular picks (money or run line bets), and some premium picks (over/under, 5 inning bets, team over/unders, etc.).

4:05 PM EST: New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox have dominated the first two games of their series against the Yankees, outscoring them 29-8.  On Saturday, they will send Eduardo Rodriguez to the mound who has been magnificent in recent starts. He is 6-0 in his last eight starts, and he has given up two runs or less in six of those eight starts.  The Yankees will counter with C.C. Sabathia and he has been horrific on the road this season. He sports a 1-4 record with a 6.59 ERA in eight road starts. The Yankees have lost his last four road games. In addition, the Yankees bullpen has been overworked in recent games, as no starter has gone more than 4 innings since last Saturday (6 consecutive games). The Red Sox seem to be hitting their stride, and there couldn’t be a better time for it. 

Pick: Red Sox (-137)

The Yankees bullpen has been overworked in the last week. In six straight games, the Yankees starting pitcher has failed to pitch more than four innings. That means that opponents are hitting the starters hard, and they are getting to them early. In six of Sabathia’s eight road starts this season, the Yankees have been losing after five innings. The Yankees have also been losing after five innings in five of their last six games. In addition, the Red Sox have been winning after five innings of seven of Eduardo Rodrigiuez’s last eight starts (the other start they were tied). Look for Boston to get to Sabathia early and keep the pressure on the faltering Yankees.

Premium Pick: Red Sox -0.5 First 5 Innings (-110)

4:05 PM EST: LA Dodgers @ Washington Nationals

This pitching match-up favors the Dodgers heavily.  The Nationals will send Joe Ross to the mound, who made his first start of the season last week.  He was able to give up three runs in 5 and ⅓ innings of work. Unfortunately for him, he squares off against Clayton Kershaw.  Kershaw is 8-2 on the season with a 2.84 ERA. In his three July starts, he has given up three runs in 19 innings of work, and has struck out at least seven batters in each of these games.  Look for Kershaw to continue his great season and for the Dodgers to beat Washington.

Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-115)

In his seventeen starts this season, Clayton Kershaw has given up more than three runs only three times. In twelve of his seventeen starts this season, the opponent has scored under 5 runs. In five of his last seven starts, the Dodgers have been winning after 5 innings. Kershaw is 11-3 with a 2.18 ERA against the Nationals, while Joe Ross is 0-1 with a 5.25 ERA in his career against the Dodgers. Look for the Dodgers to break out early, and for Kershaw to continue his great season.

Premium Picks: LA Dodgers -0.5 First 5 innings (-125), Washington Team Total Under 4.5 Runs (-145)

6:10 PM EST: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Miami Marlins

Saturday will be a match-up of young pitchers as Jordan Yamamoto squares off against Alex Young. Yamamoto will be looking to rebound after his first career loss last week against the Dodgers.  The Marlins have won five of his seven starts this season, and have won all three of his home starts. In those three starts, Yamamoto has given up four earned runs in sixteen innings of work. Alex Young will also be looking to rebound after giving four runs in four innings in his last start.  The Diamondbacks have lost four of their last six, and the Marlins are riding a three game winning streak. Look for Yamamoto to continue his great pitching resume at home this season, and for the Marlins to win.

Pick: Marlins (+105)

In five of Jordan Yamamoto’s starts this season, there have been more than four runs scored in the first five innings. Alex Young, who is pitching for Arizona today, gave up four runs in four innings during his last outing. Even though the Marlins have won three straight games, their offense has been struggling since the All-Star break, scoring three runs or less in eight of their 13 games. They have given Yamamoto good run support this season, though, as they have scored 42 runs in his seven starts (six runs a game). Look for the Marlins bats to come alive in this game, and for there to be a decent amount of runs scored early in this one.

Premium Picks: Marlins Over 3.5 Runs (-110)

7:10 PM EST: Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been struggling recently. They are 2-12 since the All-Star break. The Mets have been much better, going 8-5 since the break. The Pirates will be sending Trevor Williams to the hill, who has been inconsistent in June and July. In his five starts in June and July, he has given up at least eight hits and four runs in four of those starts. Since returning to the rotation, Steven Matz has given up four runs in 10 innings of work. Look for Pittsburgh’s slide to continue today, and for the Mets to win this game.

Pick: NY Mets (-132)

As stated above, Williams has given up at least four runs in four of his last five starts. As a team, the Pirates have given up six or more runs in four of their last five games. On the other side, the Pirates offense has been sluggish since the All Star break, scoring less than five runs in 10 of their 14 games. Look for these trends to continue today.

Premium Picks: Mets Team Over 4.5(-125), Pirates Team Under 4.5 (-140)

8:05 PM EST: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers

Friday night was a heartbreaking loss for the Chicago Cubs. After Kyle Hendricks delivered five scoreless innings, the bullpen gave three runs in the seventh and eighth inning on only two hits. The Cubs have not won a road series since May 19, and their road struggles keep continuing. They now have a 19-30 road record this season, which is only better than the NY Mets in the National League. They send Jon Lester to the mound, who is 3-4 with a 5.09 ERA on the road this season. He has also given up at least three runs in nine of his last 11 starts. The Brewers counter with Chase Anderson, who hasn’t given up more than two runs in any of last six starts. Look for the Cubs road woes to continue in this game.

Pick: Milwaukee (-123)

In his last three starts, Lester has given up 26 hits and 10 runs in 19 innings of work. The Brewers offense has also been rolling lately, as last night’s three run effort snapped a string of nine straight games where they had scored at least five runs. On the flip side, the Cubs have scored four runs or less in five straight games, and in nine of their thirteen games since the All-Star break. With Chase Anderson on the mound, look for that trend to continue.

Premium Picks: Milwaukee Over 4.5 (-130), Cubs Under 4.5 (-110)

8:10 EST: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are 3-12 since the All Star Break. They have scored three runs or less in eleven of those fifteen games, and two runs or less in ten of them. The White Sox send Ivan Nova to the mound, who is coming off of a complete game 112 pitch effort his last time out. In his two starts before that, however, he had given up 10 runs in 10 and 2/3 innings of work. The Twins send Martin Perez to the mound, who has given up four or more runs in six of his last eight outings. With the White Sox struggling and the Twins offense on a roll, look for the Twins to win a high scoring affair.

Pick: Twins -1.5 (-120)

The Twins know that their room for error has shrunk significantly over the last few months, as the Indians are now only two games behind them. They know that they need to win every one of these games against under .500 teams with the Indians playing so well. With the Twins offense playing so well (six or more runs in six straight games), we are going to take the same premium picks we took yesterday.

Premium Picks: Twins 1st 5 innings – 0.5 (-120), Twins Team Over 5.5 Runs(-140)

7:15 PM EST: Cleveland Indians @ Kansas City Royals

We just mentioned the Cleveland Indians and their surge over the past two months in the previous pick section. Since the All-Star break, the Indians have went 11-4 in 15 games, including going 4-1 over Kansas City so far. The Indians send Mike Clevinger to the mound, who has given up five runs over 24 innings in his four July starts. This includes six scoreless innings against the Royals on July 3 in Kansas City. The Royals send Glenn Sparkman to the mound. He has faced Cleveland twice in his last five starts, giving up five runs in each of those outings. Overall, he is 3-6 on the season with a 4.67 ERA. Look for the Indians to stay hot and continue their winning ways against the Royals.

Pick: Cleveland -1.5 (-130)

On this current road trip, the Indians have been ahead after five innings in four of their five games. They have also been ahead after five innings in each of Clevinger’s last four starts. With Clevinger being great in July and the Indians having good numbers against Sparkman, look for the Indians to jump out to an early lead in this one.

Premium Picks: Cleveland -0.5 First 5 innings (-155)

9:07 EST: Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics

In today’s pitching match-up, the Rangers send Adrian Sampson to the mound. Since throwing a complete game against Oakland on June 8, Sampson has struggled mightily, giving up five or more runs in four of his last six starts. He also has given up five runs in a relief outing in July. The A’s will counter with Homer Bailey. Bailey was hammered in his last start, giving up nine runs in two innings against Houston. Bailey faced the Rangers twice this season when pitching for the Royals, and he gave up ten runs over eight innings in those two outings. Bailey’s last four starts have produced games with a double digit run total. In eight of the last nine games where Sampson has appeared (starts and relief), there have been double digit runs scored in the game.

Premium Picks: Game Over 9.5 (-110), Texas Team Over 3.5 (-150), 5 inning Over 5.5 (-110)

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