OTH- Daily Odds 7/29/19

OTH- Daily Odds 7/29/19 is part of a daily series providing you with the odds for all major sports playing that day.

MLB

7:00 EST Braves @ Nationals – The Nationals and Braves open up a crucial series on Monday in Washington.  The Braves are 5.5 games up on the Nationals, but they are not coming in at 100 percent.  Dansby Swanson and Nick Markakis are on the disabled list, and Ronald Acuna Jr. had to leave Sunday’s game after a collision.  It will be a battle of left-handers as Dallas Keuchel takes on Patrick Corbin. Keuchel is 3-3 on the season with a 3.50 ERA. In his only start at Washington this season, he gave up four runs in five innings of work.  Patrick Corbin has been magnificent in recent starts for the Nationals. He has given up one run or less in five of his last seven starts, and the Nationals have won six of his last seven starts. They have also won his last six home starts.  We like Washington to win again today.  

Pick:  Washington (-150)

We would like to delve into a different type of prop bet that has never been addressed in the odds article and that is betting a margin of victory.  The numbers suggest that this has the possibility to be a close game. All seven of Keuchel’s starts this season have ended up being a one or two run game.  Five or Corbin’s last six starts have ended up being a one or two run game. Five of the nine games played this year between these two teams have been one or two run games.  

Advanced Pick:  Washington Nationals to Win by 1-2 runs (+220)

We do not necessarily recommend doing what we are about to tell you, but we wanted to introduce an alternate strategy to this advanced pick.  If you think this will be a tight game, but are unsure if you want to bet one team over the other, bet the Nationals to win by 1-2 runs (+220) AND the Braves to win by 1-2 runs (+360).  If the game is a one or two run game, you will be guaranteed a profit no matter which team wins the game. 

7:10 EST Diamondbacks @ Marlins – The Marlins and the Diamondbacks will finish up their four game series tonight in Miami. Starting for the Marlins will be Caleb Smith. The Marlins have won each of his last five starts. Smith has given up three earned runs or fewer in 14 of his 16 starts this season. Miami is 5-1 in Smith’s last six home starts with the lone loss coming against the Rays where Smith went 5.1 innings giving up two runs on four hits. Merrill Kelly will take the mound for the Diamondbacks tonight. The Diamondbacks have struggled with Kelly pitching recently losing each of his last five starts. Kelly has given up 12 runs in his last 14.1 innings of work.

Picks: Miami (-110), Miami -.5 First 5 innings (-125), Miami over 3.5 runs (-120)

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7:10 EST Pirates @ Reds – The Reds are clinging to an outside shot at making a run for the NL Central title, but their chances are getting slimmer by the week.  They are currently seven games back of the division lead and seven games back in the wild card. They look to improve on both of those numbers as the struggling Pirates come to town.  The Pirates are 2-14 since the All-Star Break, and are losers of their last eight games. They send Alex McRae to the mound, who is 0-2 on the season with a 7.71 ERA. They were supposed to start Jordan Lyles, but he was traded today to Milwaukee. The Reds are 4-2 in their last six games and are coming off series wins against Colorado and Milwaukee. They send Sonny Gray to the mound, and his July has been very different than Lyles. In his four starts, he has given up four runs and fifteen hits over 27 innings of work (1.33 ERA).  For our picks today, we like riding with Cincinnati.  

Picks:  Cincinnati -1.5 (-120), Cincinnati -0.5 First 5 Innings (-170), Cincinnati Over 5.5 (-110), Cincinnati 1st team to score in game (-125)

8:15 EST Blue Jays @ Royals – The Royals and Blue Jays meet in a battle of teams in the cellar in the American League.  Since the All Star Break, these teams have inverted records as the Royals are 10-6 and the Jays are 6-10.  Today’s pitching match-up will feature Brad Keller for the Royals and Thomas Pannone for the Jays. Keller has been magnificent in July for Kansas City, as he has given up four earned runs over twenty seven innings of work (1.33 ERA).  The Royals have won Keller’s last five starts, with Keller getting the win in four of those five starts. Thomas Pannone has been a reliever and a spot starter for the Jays this season. He is 2-4 on the year with a 6.39 ERA. The Jays have lost all three of the games that Pannone has started. For our picks today, we like riding with the Kansas City Royals.

Picks:  Kansas City (-132), Kansas City -0.5 5 Inning Line (-110), Kansas City Over 4.5 (-135), KC 1st team to score in game (+110)

8:40 EST Dodgers @ Rockies – The Dodgers travel to Colorado to take on the Rockies after taking two of three from the Nationals this weekend. LA is facing a Rockies team that is limping into the game having lost 18 of their last 23 games. The Dodgers have won six of their last eight at Coors while averaging 6.75 runs a game. Kenta Maeda will take the mound for the Dodgers. Maeda has given up a total of four earned runs against the Rockies in two starts this year. He has given up three runs or fewer in his last eight outings. Jon Gray will start for the Rockies, and hasn’t been great since the All-Star break. He is 0-1 in three starts allowing nine earned runs in 16.1 innings. In Gray’s two previous starts against the Dodgers this year he has pitched 12.2 innings and allowed seven earned runs. Expect the Dodgers to make it seven of their last nine at Coors.

Picks: Dodgers (-130), Under 13 (+100)

10:07 EST Tigers @ Angels – The Angels and the Tigers open up a three game series tonight. Jordan Zimmermann will be starting for the Tigers. He has struggled all year and is coming into the game win-less. In fact the Tigers have won just three of of the thirteen games he has started all year. Zimmermann has allowed 24 earned runs in his last 15.1 innings of work, and has not made it out of the fifth inning in any of his last four starts. Taking the mound for the Angels will be Jaime Barria. The Angels have won three of his last four starts. Barria has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. Expect the Angels to have a big game offensively against Jordan Zimmermann and the Tigers.

Picks: Angels -1.5 (135), Angels -.5 First 5 Innings (-155)

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