NFL Week 6 Picks: Saints underdogs at Jags, Lions-Packers on MNF and more
Week 6 kicks off with another lazy Thursday Night Football matchup this time between the Saquon-less New York Giants visit Tom Brady’s New England Patriots. Only the Pats (-17) and Ravens (-11) are double-digit favorites. The Pats defense has been dominant and with Daniel Jones and Golden Tate as the only real threats this game won’t be worth watching unless you have fantasy implications, hopefully on the home side.
Some interesting lines to point out this week are the Saints (+1.5) are underdogs on the road versus the Jaguars, Atlanta (-1.5) slight favorites at Arizona, and Seattle (-2) the same visiting Cleveland even after that Monday night smackdown courtesy of San Francisco. Washington is without Jay Gruden and the semi-pro football contest in Miami will be a fight for the first pick. Will the Redskins play inspired football without Gruden or will Josh Rosen and the Dolphins grab their first and potentially only win of the season?
Overall record: 15-14-1 ATS, 19-11 SU
ATS WEEK 4: 9-6
SU WEEK 4: 9-6
If you listened to Into the Lab’s NFL Pick Em Podcast last week and put money on my picks prior to the 4 PM games you would have been happy. Thursday Night Football and Sunday’s 1 PM games went 9-2 ATS and 8-3 SU before the downfall of the Chargers, Chiefs, and don’t get me started on the Browns. They cost me a podcast Week 4 tie-breaker with three people for the best ATS and SU record! Ok, enough, let it go, and get ready for another strong start, starting with the best team in the NFL.
Thursday Night Football
Thursday, Oct. 11 (8:25 p.m. ET)
Giants at Patriots (-17)
With Barkley still out this game won’t be much to watch unless you’re a Patriots fan. Golden Tate will be the main weapon for Daniel Jones as Giants receivers and tight end Evan Engram are dropping like flies. New England’s defense should continue their roll of dominant play over lowly offenses this year.
Pick: Patriots -17
Score: Patriots 34 – Giants 13
Sunday, Oct. 14 (1:00 p.m. ET games)
Panthers (-2.5) at Buccaneers
Kyle Allen remained undefeated topping the Jaguars last week and gets the road favorite tag visiting Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay beat Carolina on TNF when Cam Newton was under center and the mentality for the Bucs should be they can do it against Kyle Allen. Betting on Carolina to win because you believe the two will a split the season series is logical but they held McCaffrey to 53 total yards on 18 touches and no one else has done that yet. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in this matchup with the under cashing in 6 out of 7 meetings.
Pick: Buccaneers (+2.5)
Score: Buccaneers 28 – Panthers 24
Saints at Jaguars (-1.5)
This is a head-scratcher of a line. Saints are far better than Jacksonville and even on the road, the Saints should be clear favorites. New Orleans is 4-0 ATS versus Jacksonville and if you feel the way I do about the Saints then tease them to -6 (+225) or -9 (+335) now if you want a potentially big payout.
Pick: Saints +1.5
Prediction: Saints 27 – Jaguars 17
Texans at Chiefs (-5)
An offensive show is what we hope to see after Watson and the Texans ran by every Falcons defender en route to 426 passing yards and 53 points. We can be in store for a shootout between these two the only difference is, it’s hard to imagine Kansas City losing two-straight. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the past six times these two met.
Pick: Texans (+5)
Score: Chiefs 38, Texans 34
Seahawks (-2) at Browns
The Browns were dismantled on primetime to an undefeated 49ers team and the Seahawks hung onto a last-second win at home versus the Rams. Russell Wilson looks like an MVP while Baker Mayfield was benched in the fourth quarter after fumbling again. Seattle along with Green Bay leads the NFL at 4-1 ATS and the favorite is 3-0-2 in the past five meetings.
Pick: Seahawks -2
Score: Seahawks 26 – Browns 20
Eagles at Vikings (-3)
I think this is the toughest game of the week. Both teams fighting to avoid falling to 3-3 and the Vikings earned a nice win over the Giants finally airing it out. The Eagles defense dominated the Jets without Sam Darnold and has a gruesome six-game stretch starting in Minnesota. The Eagles do well in Minnesota going 7-3 ATS in the past 10 and the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five. The Eagles’ front seven will be Dalvin Cook’s biggest test since the Vikings 16-6 loss to the Bears in his 14 carries, 35 yards and one touchdown performance in Week 4.
Pick: Eagles +3
Score: Eagles 24 – Vikings 23
Bengals at Ravens (-11)
Baltimore scored 26 against Pittsburgh despite Lamar Jackson throwing three interceptions. I think the Ravens will cut back on the turnovers and the defense to keep Cincinnati’s offense out the endzone for most of the afternoon. The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last five versus the Ravens, but it’s hard to imagine the Bengals keeping this one close with their recent play.
Pick: Ravens -11
Score: Ravens 31 – Bengals 17
Redskins (-3.5) at Dolphins
Jay Gruden is fired and the Dolphins are up! Did the Redskins fire Gruden before he could lose to Miami? Would they lose to Miami with him? Will they without him? Who cares? Both teams are top three worst and I’m taking the better quarterback here, on home field, with a coach. Can’t believe I’m taking the Dolphins to win a game.
Pick: Dolphins +3.5
Score: Dolphins 20 – Redskins 17
Sunday, Oct. 14 (4:05 and 4:25 p.m. ET games)
Falcons (-1.5) at Cardinals
Not totally sure why Atlanta is barely favored but I for one am not impressed by Arizona’s win over Cincinnati because that’s a game they should win. Atlanta should win by more than a touchdown. The over has gone 5-1 in the past six times when these two meet and the home team is 4-0 ATS in the past four games. The O/U is set at 51.5 after opening at 47.5. If it’s going to be high scoring I’ll take Matt Ryan and Julio Jones.
Pick: Falcons -1.5
Score: Falcons 30 – Cardinals 24
49ers at Rams (-4)
The 49ers are the last undefeated team in the NFC and the Rams have lost two in a row. Vegas is giving them the favorite tag for home field and the fact three-straight loses seems unrealistic. The 49ers are 5-2 ATS in the last seven versus the Rams and division games are usually battles. This one is coming down the last possession or two.
Pick: 49ers +4
Score: Rams 30 – 49ers 27
Cowboys (-7) at Jets
The Jets offense cannot move the ball without Sam Darnold and Leveon Bell has been withering away, but now that Darnold is cleared after having mono, the Jets have a chance to score a touchdown. Cowboys have no excuse to pour it on the Jets after their loss to Green Bay at home. Eagles visit Dallas next week so Dallas needs a quick tune-up while Darnold needs to knock the rust off and find a rhythm.
Pick: Cowboys -7
Score: Cowboys 27 – Jets 17
Titans at Broncos (-2.5)
The Titans are the most inconsistent team in football and the Broncos just earned their first win of the season beating the Chargers. This has defensive matchup and prime back-to-back win potential written all over it for the Broncos. Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings between the two and Mariota and Flacco is an even matchup at this point in their careers.
Pick: Broncos -2.5
Score: Broncos 17 – Titans 13
Sunday Night Football
Sunday, Oct. 14 (8:20 p.m. ET)
Steelers at Chargers (-7)
My initial reaction was this line is far too high considering the Chargers got Melvin Gordon back and still lost to a winless Broncos team. The Steelers should have beat the Ravens and officiating didn’t help late with a questionable roughing the passer call. Steelers are hungry and have lost three games by 9 points with Mason Rudolph. Whether he plays or not, the Steelers defense looks great and Chargers offense needs to figure it out with Gordon in the mix. This is a must win for the Chargers at 2-3 with road games at Tennessee at Chicago up next. On the other hand, it’s a must-win for the Steelers at 1-4 headed into the bye with the Dolphins and Colts after. Pittsburgh doesn’t believe their season is over.
Pick: Steelers +7
Score: Chargers 23 – Steelers 17
Monday Night Football
Monday, Oct. 15 (8:15 p.m. ET)
Lions at Packers (-4.5)
The Packers are the NFL’s best team against the spread this season at 4-1 and the Lions aren’t far behind at 3-1. The Lions have been battling with the elites and falling just short every time. Division matchups are played close and with Davante Adams returning to the lineup, the Packers won’t need four rushing touchdowns. Detroit is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings and the over has been 6-1. I like what the Lions offense has done and they have shown they can play with the best. This smells like a letdown week from Green Bay after the big win in Dallas.
Pick: Lions +4.5
Score: Lions 33 – Packers 27
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