NFL Week 8 Picks: Rodgers in Arrowhead and Brees back in NOLA
NFL Week 8 Picks starts off with another Thurday Night Football snooze-fest as the Vikings (-16) are rolling and the Redskins are trolling right now. Kirk Cousins gets his former team in primetime. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers (+5.5) are an underdog at Kansas City after his perfect game. Russell Wilson looked human last week in the loss to Baltimore so they’re only 5.5-point favorites at Atlanta (come on). Drew Brees is coming back to New Orleans this week versus one of the hottest teams in the NFL, the Cardinals. No seriously, they’ve won three-straight and so have the Packers and Vikings in the NFC. Only New England (7-0) and San Francisco (6-0) remain undefeated.
Week 7 was a good week and I hoped you read and used some picks. My picks went 7-2 ATS and SU from TNF through the end of the 1 PM games. We missed on the 49ers by half-a-point and I said the Texans were a lock and they proved they’re still who we hoped they weren’t. In primetime games, I went 2-1 ATS and 3-0 SU missing on the Jets +10 embarrassingly enough to give me a 9-5 ATS and 10-4 SU total for the week. Colts, Ravens, Giants and of course, the Titans kept me from a perfect week.
The NFC playoff implications are starting to shape and Carolina and San Francisco are easily the best matchup of the week. Two young undefeated quarterbacks with two suffocating defenses behind them make that game arguably the most competitive on paper. This week will be fun, just not Thursday Night.
OVERALL: 35-23 SU and 33-24-1 ATS
- LAST WEEK ATS: 9-5
- LAST WEEK SU: 10-4
Thursday Night Football
Thursday, Oct. 24 (8:25 p.m. ET)
Redskins at Vikings (-16)
Washington is 2-5 ATS in the last seven TNF games and Minnesota 4-1 on TNF, and 4-1 in the last five. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five and the over has gone 6-0 including 4-0 in the last four in Minnesota. Not to mention Kirk Cousins against his former team at his new home. Air it out, Captain Kirk. This looks like Minnesota especially after Washington didn’t score a point in the mud bowl versus the 49ers.
Pick: Vikings -16
Prediction: Vikings 30, Redskins 10
Sunday, Oct. 27 (1:00 p.m. ET games)
Cardinals at Saints (-9.5)
The return of Drew Brees! If Alvin Kamara is back and 100% then this could get ugly. Arizona allows the fifth-most points per game at 27.4 and the Saints allow 21 (11th). Kyler Murray put on an impressive stretch winning three-straight games and is a true dual-threat quarterback. His next two games are at New Orleans then TNF at home versus the 49ers. His streak will come to end this week or next and I believe both defenses are ready for him. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and the over is it too. Arizona is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 including 0-4 in the last four in New Orleans. Welcome home, Drew.
Pick: Saints -9.5
Prediction: Saints 31, Cardinals 17
Seahawks (-5.5) at Falcons
The road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings while the over has gone 7-1 in the last eight. The O/U opened at 54 so the books are expecting a high-scoring affair once again. The Hawks are 3-0 ATS on the road this year and the road team has owned this series ATS-wise. The Falcons are done for the year like I mentioned last week and I’ll repeat again, fade them versus any competent coaching staff and team.
Pick: Seahawks (-5.5)
Prediction: Seahawks 34, Falcons 13
Chargers at Bears (-4)
What a brutal way to lose a game for Los Angeles. The same can be said for the Bears. I knew the Saints would beat them, but holy cow that was a drumming. Both teams are getting desperate for a win and the quarterback play for Chicago leaves a lot to be desired. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings while the favorite is also 4-1. The Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last five versus the Bears. I think we’re going to see a lot of field goals if the wind isn’t a factor and all trends point toward Chicago; the overall better team.
Pick: Bears -4
Prediction: Bears 22, Chargers 16
Jets at Jaguars (-6)
The Jets were embarrassed at home versus their rival Patriots, while the Jaguars beat the winless Bengals. The Jets have to travel south to Jacksonville to play a team they’re 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Two great running backs will get involved early and I think both coaches will let the young quarterbacks loose and there could be a few turnovers. The Jets should have an opportunity to win this game, and I’m going against the trend. Both defenses allow over 20 points a game so the O/U of 41 looks appealing.
Pick: Jets +6
Prediction: Jaguars 24, Jets 20
Eagles at Bills (-2)
The only notable head to head trend is the under has gone 4-1 in the last five. The O/U is set at a low 42. The Bills had an onside kick return touchdown to get some breathing room in their win over Miami fresh off the bye week in what turned out to be a high-scoring game. They looked down on Miami and I think they’ll have their hands full welcoming Philadelphia.
Buffalo is 4-2 ATS this year while the Eagles are 2-5. I do believe the Eagles are the better team and their schedule does not get any easier with Chicago before the bye week with the Patriots and Seahawks at home after the break. Desperation mode activated for the 3-4 Eagles after two-straight losses.
Pick: Eagles +2
Prediction: Eagles 23, Bills 21
Buccaneers at Titans (-2.5)
The Titans got me again. Thank you, Melvin Gordon! I’m sure that the contract holdout will pay off in the summer. Anyways, the Titans offense looked better under Ryan Tannehill and we had a Corey Davis sighting! That’s good news for Tennessee hosting back-to-back games, now versus a team that’s 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings against you. Yea I’m talking about Tampa Bay.
This spread is low and Winston has been throwing the ball to anyone that’s wearing a football jersey, doesn’t really matter the color to him. Tennessee’s defense allowed less than 19 PPG last year and 16 this year. I can’t believe I’m saying this…. give me Tennessee!
Pick: Titans -2.5
Prediction: Titans 24, Buccaneers 16
Bengals at Rams (-13)
The Rams are off a big win in Atlanta and the Bengals lost a home game versus the Jaguars in their first game without Jalen Ramsey. The Bengals will remain winless after this one. The favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six while the Bengals have gone 1-4-1 in those games. 13 is a lot of points, but the Rams just got their first win after three-straight losses. It’s time for them to hit the gas pedal. The U/O is also an oddly high 48, the under has gone 4-0 in the last four meetings.
Pick: Rams -13
Prediction: Rams 31, Bengals 13
Broncos at Colts (-6)
The Colts have now beat the Chiefs, Texans, Falcons and Titans and welcome Joe Flacco and the Broncos to town. Denver just traded Emmanuel Sanders after the emergence of Cortland Sutton. The Chiefs on TNF smacked the Broncos after they won two-straight. Denver is 1-6 ATS in their last seven in Indy and the over has gone 6-1. I see one of those trends continuing and it’s not the second one. I’ve been 3-0 the last three weeks on Denver and I’m going Indy -6 to keep my Bronco-stretch alive.
Pick: Colts -6
Prediction: Colts 27, Broncos 13
Giants at Lions (-7)
A tough matchup to gauge considering Detroit should have more wins then they do. New York has all their weapons back, but couldn’t beat Arizona, the same Arizona team Detroit tied with to open the regular season. The only notable meeting trend is the road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. It could be another high scoring game as both teams still have a chance to be one of the two wildcard teams. Lions without Kerryon Johnson could affect the offense this week and might be my final factor as this is a toss-up game.
Pick: Giants +7
Prediction: Lions 27, Giants 23
Sunday, Oct. 27 (4:05/4:25 p.m. ET games)
Panthers at 49ers (-5.5)
What a great matchup this is; two undefeated quarterbacks with stellar defenses to back them up. Emmanuel Sanders joins the 49ers in recent trade from the Broncos and will add a boost to their already surprisingly good offense. This seems like 49ers all the way, but Carolina is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 in San Francisco and 14-3 ATS in the 17 overall.
The 49ers are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings overall, but Carolina has had better success in San Francisco which is hard to ignore. That’s a really good track record, plus Carolina is off a bye week and the MVP is the running back for Carolina.
Pick: Panthers +5.5
Prediction: 49ers 24, Panthers 20
Raiders at Texans (-6.5)
Houston had the chance to prove they were for real and couldn’t get the job done in Indianapolis last week. The Raiders let Aaron Rodgers disrespect their entire defense and Watson could do the same with good protection. The favorite is 5-2 in the last seven meetings ATS and the over is 4-0 in the last four.
The over opened at 48 and rose to 51.5. I’d recommend buying the Texans down to -2.5 or taking the ML before a touchdown because we don’t know what Texans team we’ll see but it should be close. Even without Will Fuller; Kenny Stills will step up and Hopkins could have a field day.
Pick: Texans -6.5
Prediction: Texans 31, Raiders 24
Browns at Patriots (-13)
What an ugly spread and ugly game this could be. The Patriots defense should be nominated for NFL MVP. Their schedule is the rest of the way gets a lot tougher with much better quarterbacks so this could be their last cakewalk until Week 15 versus the Bengals.
The Browns are 2-4 this year after all the offseason hype while the Patriots are undefeated and haven’t had a close game. Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in their last seven versus New England including 1-3-1 ATS in Foxboro. The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings, but New England allows 6.9 PPG (48 total), yes that’s right, not even seven points a game! I don’t know if the Browns reach 20 points so we can say in our 21 savage voice together, how much will New England score? A lot.
Pick: Patriots -13
Prediction: Patriots 31, Browns 13
Sunday Night Football Sunday, Oct. 27 (8:20 p.m. ET)
Packers (-4) at Chiefs
Matt Moore and the Chiefs go up against the red-hot and I mean red-hot Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. No way this ends well for Moore. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings and the over is 4-1 in the last five and it’s set at 48. Rodgers had a perfect passer rating and did whatever he wanted vs the Raiders god-awful secondary in a six-touchdown week. The Chiefs are better but Rodgers has proved without Davante Adams, he’s still at the top of the QB hierarchy.
Pick: Packers -4
Prediction: Packers 27, Chiefs 16
Monday Night Football Monday, Oct. 28 (8:15 p.m. ET)
Dolphins at Steelers (-14.5)
The Steelers are monsters on MNF going 5-1 ATS but are 1-5 ATS in the last six years following a bye week. They face another winless team and the Steelers are known for playing down to competition. Probably an unpopular pick, but Miami has covered two games in a row and they want to win almost as much as the Steelers do. Steelers have the Colts for a chance to be 4-4 when the Rams come to town and the Dolphins have the Jets next week for another shot at win number one. The Steelers will want this one a little more and Minkah Fitzpatrick will have a day against his former team. Minkah Fitzpatrick will pick off Ryan Fitzpatrick for a little history.
Pick: Dolphins +14.5
Prediction: Steelers 23, Dolphins 17