Am I the worst gambler of all time? Maybe. Am I the worst gambler at OTH? Definitely. I started last Saturday an astonishing 0-6 thanks to getting constantly screwed all day. Rice allowed a 45 yard TD on what would have been the last play of the game to kill their cover. Michigan and Notre Dame scored more points in the 4th quarter than the first 3 combined to kill the under. Appalachian State was stopped on 4th and goal and missed a field goal, missing their cover by 1 point. I couldn’t catch a break.
I had no fun last Saturday. Didn’t win a bet all day. My first win did not come until the early hours of Sunday morning, when Utah finished off Cal for an easy cover. I went a dreadful 1-6 last week. People will say I was horrible. I would say I ended hot. I look to keep the win streak going heading into this weekend’s slate.
Last Week: 1-6
NCAAF this season: 33-37
Boston College at Syracuse, 12pm
It was a tough, tough showing for BC against Clemson last week. The Tigers scored on every possession in the first half en route to crushing the Eagles by over 50 points. But the good news for BC is that game is over, and they are on to Syracuse. Normally, a trip to the Carrier Dome is far from ideal. But not this year. Syracuse spots an ugly 0-4 record in ACC play, and are losers of 3 straight.
BC’s defense will look to get their confidence back against the 12th ranked scoring offense in the ACC. The Orange have been inept under sophomore QB Tommy Devito, who has struggled to get anything going recently. He has only tossed 1 TD his last 3 games, and has also been sacked 20 times. BC’s defense stepped up a couple weeks ago off the bye, as they put the clamps on NC State for most of the game while the offense pulled away. I expect Syracuse’s offense to continue to struggle Saturday, and BC to ride their run game to victory. BC is the better team, and they will show it.
Pick: Boston College +3
Northern Illinois at Central Michigan, 12pm
Central Michigan has been a different team at home compared to on the road. The 5-4 Chippewas are 4-0 at home this season, thanks to strong offensive play. CMU is averaging 28ppg on the season, but average a whopping 42 a game at home. The Chippewas don’t have much of a defense, and that was apparent last week as Buffalo lit them up. The over is 4-0 for Central Michigan home games this season, giving us a solid lean.
The confidence only grows higher when looking at their opponent. Northern Illinois has thrown up some big numbers in their last few games, thanks to a strong run game. Jaret Patterson ran all over Central Michigan last week, so Northern Illinois should be licking their chops for Saturday. The over is 5-1 in the last 6 Husky games, and I love it Saturday.
Pick: Over 49.5
Liberty at UMass, 12pm
UMass is bad. So, so bad. In their toilet bowl matchup at home against UConn last week, they got crushed 56-35. UMass has no defense, and have been lit up badly by teams all year. They are allowing an ungodly 50 points a game this season, and it has not gotten better recently. If you give up 56 to UConn, you are not going to have a lot of fun against other teams. Now in comes Liberty, a team that scored 34 at Rutgers last week, and 59 against Maine the week before.
UMass overs have been covered by their opponent alone in a few games this year. But their offense has started to show some life, and contribute on their own. They have scored 35 and 21 in their last 2 weeks, thanks to a good running game. Bilal Ally ran for over 150 yards against UConn, and averaged over 9 yards a carry against LA Tech the week before, so this should work well against a Liberty defense that ranks outside the top 100 against the run. If Maine can score 44 against Liberty, UMass will score enough for the over.
Pick: Over 69
Akron at Bowling Green, 2pm
2 terrible teams, in a game you don’t want to watch. But the best income is passive income, so we bet this game anyway. These teams have a combined 2 wins this year, and have pretty much been a whipping post for whoever they play. Akron has scored just 3 points in their last 3 weeks, and even lost to the always bad UMass Minutemen earlier this year. But this game is at Bowling Green, and the Falcons have shown a little life at home this year. You may recall that 1 of 2 Bowling Green wins this year came at home in one of the biggest upsets of the year. The Falcons were 27 point underdogs against Toledo, and won outright, 20-7.
Akron has been a walking train wreck this year, and have no ability to stop teams or score. They played a 2-5 Northern Illinois team last week, and lost 49-0. There isn’t much to say about this team. The Zips only completed 4 passes last game, and are well on their way to a winless season. Akron is 0-8 ATS this season, and Bowling Green is 2-6 ATS. Both covers have been wins by the Falcons, and they should win again on Saturday.
Pick: Bowling Green -6
#8 Georgia vs. #6 Florida, 3:30pm on neutral field
The largest cocktail party in the world promises to be a good one, as both teams will be coming off the bye. This game looks like it will act as the SEC East championship game, as each team tries to keep their hopes alive for making the playoffs. Jake Fromm and UGA have been hard to watch offensively, as they have lost to South Carolina and struggled mightily against Kentucky. But playing Florida might actually be a welcome sight. Fromm sliced and diced the Gators last year, throwing for 240 yards and 3 TDs.
D’Andre Swift also ripped apart the Gators last year, running for over 100 yards and a score on just 12 carries. He will be extra motivated this week, as one of Florida’s defenders has already called out Swift, saying he’s overrated. The Gators defense got ripped by Burrow a couple weeks ago, and will be oversized up front against the biggest offensive line in the country. The one advantage Florida has is coaching, as Dan Mullen has done a good job getting Florida back to national relevance, while Kirby Smart seems to hamstring his team each year. I expect Georgia to be more aggressive and let Fromm air it out. I think Florida is a bit overhyped, and Georgia redeems themselves.
Pick: Georgia -6
Florida Atlantic at Western Kentucky, 4pm
Lane Kiffin’s team is coming in hot, riding a dominant win over Old Dominion. But, the Owl’s high flying offense will take on a stiff test from one of the best defenses in Conference USA. FAU’s pass offense is ranked 26th in the nation, but Kiffin’s offense at FAU has a history of struggling against tougher defenses. The Hilltoppers have limited their opponents to 14 points or fewer in 4 of their last 5 games, so it will be a big test to see how good the Owls really are.
WKU will look to avenge a last second loss to Marshall this past week, which ended a 4 game win streak. The Thundering Herd jumped out to a quick 17-0 lead, but Western Kentucky rallied to tie the game at 23, before losing on a 53 yard field goal as time expired. Marshall is a great team, so there is no shame in losing on the road to them. FAU has a below average defense, so I expect Western Kentucky to control the ball and ride a home field advantage to victory.
Pick: Western Kentucky -1.5
Ole Miss at #11 Auburn, 7pm
Auburn lives to beat up on bad teams. They have been hanging big offensive performances against below average opponents all season. In conference play, Auburn has already scored 51 against Arkansas, and 56 on Mississippi State. The Rebels have shown no ability to stop good teams on the road, allowing 38 at Mizzou and 59 at Alabama.
Freshman Bo Nix has struggled so far this season, but he’s played 4 of his 5 conference games on the road. He will happily return home for this game Saturday, where he roasted Mississippi State for over 300 yards and 2 TDs earlier this year. Auburn will not have trouble throwing or running against Ole Miss, and I think the Rebels have a good enough offense to put 20 points on the board. They scored 27 and 31 against Mizzou and Bama on the road, so 20 isn’t asking too much.
Pick: Over 52.5
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