Werner’s Wagers: Chiefs vs. Chargers Betting Preview

Chiefs, Chargers
Chiefs, Chargers

The Kansas City Chiefs will travel to Mexico City to take on the Los Angeles Chargers to cap off week 11 of the NFL season. The Chiefs, who tout one of the leagues most high powered offenses, will look to improve to 7-4 and stay atop of the AFC West. On the other side of the ball, veteran Philip Rivers will look to keep their season alive while they make a last ditch effort to sneak into the playoffs.

The Tale of the Tape

  • Chiefs -4.5 vs. Chargers +4.5, Over/Under – 52.5 (Lines through FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • Location – Aztec Stadium, Mexico City.
  • Weather – 64 degrees, mostly cloudy with a chance of rain.
  • Kansas City Chiefs: 6-4 record, 5-5 ATS, 7-3 O/U
  • Los Angeles Chargers: 4-6 record, 3-6-1 ATS, 3-7 O/U

Who Has The Advantage?

mahomes leads the chiefs passed the ravens

For the first time all season the Chiefs are healthy across the board. Patrick Mahomes will have all skill players at his disposal for the match-up as well as a healthy offensive line to allow him to stay in the pocket. As long as the line can protect Mahomes he should see success in picking apart the cover 3 that the Chargers tend to rely on. Look for #15 to utilize his speedy receivers on the outside and the big TE Travis Kelce to find the sweet spots in the middle of the field.

A major challenge that the Chiefs will face will be the Chargers strong defensive front led by Joey Bosa. The 4th year defensive end has had a great season so far with 8.5 sacks and 19 hits on opposing QB’s this year. The Chargers will need to rely on Bosa to disrupt Mahomes and force the recently injured QB to rely on his feet. However, with LT Eric Fisher returning to play for the first time since week 2, and the rest of the offensive line finally healthy, I see them being able to contain Bosa enough to allow Mahomes to work his magic against the banged up Chargers secondary.

The Picks

In this game I like the Chiefs -4.5 as well as the over of 52.5. After a high scoring loss last week to the Titans who rank in the bottom third of most offensive stats (PPG, YPG, Passing YPG) I expect another high scoring game. With the Chiefs fighting for home field in the playoffs and a clean ballot of health for their offense, I expect them to handle the Chargers in Mexico City.

I also like the prop bet of anytime touchdown scorer – Keenan Allen. Allen has been peppered with targets in the red zone this year with 13 targets. However, he only has 2 touchdowns under his belt off those targets. Allen has not seen the end zone since week 3 which is also the last game he eclipsed 100 yards. With his volume and skill, he is due to find the end zone and the payout is solid at +155.

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