Best Bets | UFC 246: McGregor vs Cerrone
Hey guys—Luke here from Sparring with Reality Betting via Overtime Heroics to provide you with some UFC 246 Best Bets.
I’m happy to join the Overtime Heroics MMA Team and give you guys some solid UFC betting content!
Starting with UFC 246 this weekend, I’ll be writing a “Best Bets” column for every UFC card.
With this being the first article, I just want to touch on how I will be formatting my breakdowns going forward.
I’ll discuss how I think the fighter’s match-up with each other, how I handicapped the fight, and my ‘Best Bet’.
Because my articles will be released mid-week of the upcoming fights, all “Best Bets” will be based on where the odds currently sit mid-fight week.
**Disclaimer: I don’t claim these to be “locks” or “guaranteed” bets. They are simply ones that I feel still possess the most value during fight week. Oddsmakers are starting to release lines earlier and earlier now (1 month in advance of UFC 246), so the value from fight to fight can sway drastically during that large of a window.
Alright, let’s get into it.
Best Bets: Sabino Mazo vs JJ Aldrich
I think this is one of the more intriguing match-ups on this UFC 246 card and falls under my Best Bets for a multitude of reasons.
Aldrich has been a fighter that I’ve bet on quite a few times in the past.
She’s not flashy but will stay in your face for three rounds (which is very important in low-moderate level women’s MMA).
JJ has great snap on her punches and tends to win in the power category against most of her opponents as well.
Outside of getting caught by Maycee Barber in the second round (Aldrich was winning the fight up until that point who is now a massive favorite against Roxanne Modafferi) and her short-notice debut against Juliana Lima; she’s been very solid.
I think it all comes down to if Aldrich can effectively close the distance and win in the grappling to steal rounds.
Mazo comes out of Kings MMA training under Master Rafael Cordiero, which is probably one of the best striking coaches you can have in the game.
However, she is still very green at the age of 22-years-old, which always allows for uncertainty.
She didn’t look good in her debut against Moroz; ultimately, getting outstruck over the course of three rounds, despite coming on stronger in the end.
In her next fight, she coasted to an easy win against a lesser opponent in Shana Dobson.
So, I’m intrigued to see what strides she’s made since then.
Mazo is a very tall fighter.
She has success when she can get a rhythm going on her opponents by keeping them at range and letting her kicks go.
However, Mazo has a pretty consistent tell.
She stands straight up and drops her hands every time she throws low-leg kicks.
Be on the lookout for this in the fight because this is where JJ is going to blast her with straight rights.
It’s also important to note that Mazo has faced very little adversity in career and has folded anytime she’s been significantly pressured.
I like Aldrich to provide that pressure which she has consistently done throughout her UFC tenure and get it done on the cards.
Fight Week Bet: JJ Aldrich at –120 or better
I capped Aldrich at –150 implying a 60% chance of getting the job done.
This was relatively close to the open at –145 which got bet down quickly.
I understand Mazo’s style might be more aesthetically pleasing but I think people are on the wrong side here.
I haven’t pulled the trigger officially yet on Aldrich as I think I can get her at + money still.
If you can get Aldrich at –120 or better, you’re getting value here.
Best Bets: Aleksei Oleinik vs Maurice Greene
Oleinik is coming into this fight at 42-years-old but don’t let that fool you.
He’s one of the few remaining submission specialists in the game.
45 of his 57 wins have come by way of submission.
He trods forward with his head down and wings big punches which have hurt a lot of his previous opponents.
He’s really made his style work effectively for him.
He’s coming into this fight against Maurice Greene coming off of back-to-back losses to explosive heavyweights in Walt Harris and Alistair Overeem.
I actually like Oleinik in this fight, as Green has not been able to effectively use his size and length consistently.
He shows glimpses of it but just hasn’t been able to put it together.
He keeps his head straight on the centerline, allowing opponents to effectively counter his naked kicks and lazy hooks.
Also to note, all of his previous 4 opponents have been able to close distance on him at some point in the fight effectively and land strikes.
I think if Oleinik can avoid a big shot early from Greene, he will be able to land punches and close the distance.
However, with the height of Greene, I don’t think Oleinik will be able to set up his patented Ezekial choke.
I do think he will be able to land in the clinch though and eventually get the fight on the ground.
This is where he can take over and secure a submission at UFC 246.
Fight Week Bet: Aleksei Oleinik at +110 or better
Because of the lack of striking defense from Oleinik and his recent vicious KO losses, I only lined him a slight favorite.
I think –118 is accurate, giving him a 54% chance of victory.
Greene has obviously the higher ceiling solely based on age but has consistently shown over his 4 UFC bouts that he can’t effectively utilize his range over the course of a fight.
This is not a good characteristic to have, especially at heavyweight.
I hope Greene can eventually put it together but nothing has shown me lately that that is the case.
I think at dog money of +110 or better, you’re getting solid value and one of UFC 246’s Best Bets.
Let’s make some money this weekend!
If you’re looking for breakdowns and betting advice on some of the other fights on the card, check out my website at Sparring with Reality.
Also, be sure to check out the Overtime Heroics Forums page to join in on the discussion!
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