UFC Fight Night 171 shows a quick turn around after UFC 249. Most MMA fans have no complaint as we have been famished for action, especially for those on the betting side of things. Here I will outline some of my best bets for the event.
This will be a series I will be doing for the foreseeable future for each event. Betting units will be tracked at prices that were available when the bet was placed. Advice on adjustments to lines will be given in breakdowns.
Not the start anyone would want when tracking. Kind of an embarassing performance from Fabricio, who is in the conversation for best Heavyweight fighter ever. In this game you have to have a short memory so we move on.
Anthony Smith (-178) via 5Dimes TO WIN 1.5 UNITS
Anthony Smith (33-14-0) should be much more of a favorite over Glover Teixeira in my opinion. Both of these guys are at the top of the heap of their division. I expect this to be competitive but with Smith having the overall and more prolonged success. Anthony Smith has the advantage in every major category with exception to pure punching power. Even that is debatable. Their records wouldn’t indicate it but “Lionheart” Smith is the fresher fighter coming into this contest as Glover has through many more crazy wars.
Glover is a 40-year-old fighter fighting a 31-year-old fighter who is at the peak of his game right now. Both have had recent success but Anthony Smith’s win over Alexander Gustaffson tells you where hes at in the division. Alexander is considered to be one of the best Light Heavyweight fighters and Anthony finished him. This is something Daniel Cormier, and Jon Jones couldn’t do in their first fight. There are many paths to victory for Anthony Smith. Mostly likely, I see him taking a hard fought decision around 49-46, or something like that. I could see him getting a finish too, you never know when Teixeira is going to show up old and shop worn. This is a good line to play up to -200.
Alexander Hernandez (+100) via 5Dimes TO WIN 1.5 UNITS
Alexander Hernandez was Lightweight’s top prospect until the hype train got derailed by Donald Cerrone. A slice of humble pie was exactly what he needed as “The Great” had become too over confident. While all fighters need to believe in themselves to a high degree, this confidence was taking on the persona of a jack-ass. Since his first defeat in the UFC we have seen a much more mature fighter. After his loss he rebounded with victory of Francisco Trinaldo who has been in the Lightweight elite since seemingly the beginning of time. That win being even more significant as Francisco has won 2 since that fight and shows no signs of slowing. Drew Dober has been in the UFC a long time and has had scattered success.
More recently he has looked more impressive than ever to earn him this fight. Still think Hernandez is in another tier as far as talent goes. The line seems to be flipping as Dober has been the slight favorite for a while but it is going the other way now. I think Alexander’s well rounded game will be able to stifle the power of Dober what will most likely be decision victory. If you happen to get Alex around the -130 mark, I would wager it to win 1 unit.
Karl Roberson (+175) via 5Dimes RISKING 1 UNIT
Karl Roberson did miss weight but I will attribute that to the circumstances of not being able to cut weight properly due to social restrictions. I expect this fight to take place on the feet where Karl will have a decided advantage in the striking. The timing of his kicks and the power behind all of his strikes makes this guy a problem for anyone. If the fight does hit the ground he is a jiu-jitsu black belt who has shown good instincts and finishing ability.
Karl became a fan favorite most recently when he took a severe eye poke that could have had him win by disqualification. He instead kept fighting and even finished the fight shortly after. That’s a testament to his heart and you know this guy will show up for you on fight night. Marvin has been around a while and i think this is a case of the new eating the old. I could see Karl getting a TKO stop or punching and kicking his way to a decision. Due to the missed weight ill only be risking 1 unit to win 1.75. This line probably won’t move that much.
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