Today marks the third time in the last fiscal week that we have a UFC event, and what a ride it has been. Overeem vs Harris takes place in Florida as the other two cards did, and here I will outline some of my best bets for the card.
This will be a series I will be doing for the foreseeable future for each event. Betting units will be tracked at prices that were available when the bet was placed. Advice on adjustments to lines will be given in breakdowns.
Nothing short of a disastrous start, but that happens a lot of times when someone starts tracking their bets. Two of my bets for the last two events got cancelled because the fight got cancelled. It might look a little better than it is now. Either way, time to keep pushing and move on to the next one.
Edson Barboza (-140) via 5Dimes TO WIN 2 UNITS
Edson Barboza (20-8) successfully made weight for his Featherweight UFC debut. We are going to assume he is in normal fighting shape for this fight and that the cut won’t affect him that much. Being a veteran of 22 UFC fights will help him get past any small ailments the weight cut may have had on him. Overtime Heroics has a preview of this fight here. Dan Ige (13-2) will most likely want to get this fight to the ground. Few fighters at Lightweight or Featherweight are going to be able to stand with Barboza. This is where I see Ige getting himself in trouble. Barboza’s kicks are next level for MMA. He uses them well at space to keep distance while landing thundering blows. He is the only fighter in UFC history that has finishes via head kick, body kick, and leg kick.
We saw Jose Aldo successfully move down a weight division where the cut didn’t seem to affect him at all and I see a very similar situation here. Edson’s recent record on paper doesn’t look good at all. But losing to Gaethje, Kevin Lee, and Khabib says a lot of about Edson to be in the class of even getting those fights. A move to Featherweight should reinvigorate Edson’s career and there are a lot of potential future matchups that look tasty. After -160 would think about lowering the bet to win 1.5 units.
Claudia Gadelha (-220) via 5Dimes TO WIN 1 UNIT
Former title challenger Claudia Gadelha (17-4) should make easy work of Angela Hill (12-7) at UFC on ESPN 8. Angela Hill has had a crazy schedule lately. She has fought seven times in pretty much the last fiscal year. Going 5-2 in that run, beating women most people couldn’t pick in a lineup. Claudia will enjoy the power advantage on the feet, more power in the clinch, and better scrambling ability. Hill has been very much a company man lately, but she is running into a buzz-saw that will outmatch her in every category.
Claudia last fought when she beat Randa Markos, someone who beat Hill during her run. MMA math doesn’t always work and isn’t exact, but there is something to be said for it on occasion. I expect Claudia to cruise to a decision victory. If you don’t want to lay the chalk take her by decision at -125 or put her in a parlay.
Walt Harris ITD (-105) via 5Dimes TO WIN 1 UNIT
Walt Harris (13-7) will be fighting for much more than a “W”. We all know his heartbreaking story, and given the circumstances, I think it will give him the extra strength and motivation to get the job done against Alistair Overeem (45-18). That aside Walt is the fresher fighter as far as careers are concerned. He has looked very good lately, Overeem’s chin has been questionable at times and will be put to the test.
I see Walt as being the better athlete and the faster man. This will help him avoid the big shots of Overeem. This is a 5 round fight, so I see Walt eventually landing a big punch and dropping Overeem and finishing with strikes. This line shouldn’t change that much.
Miguel Baeza (-140) via 5Dimes TO WIN 1 UNIT
Here we have an undefeated prospect in Miguel Baeza (8-0) against a long-in-the-tooth once-retired veteran Matt Brown (22-16). The young eat the old in this sport that is very unforgiving. Miguel has the technical striking to give Matt Brown serious problems. Matt Brown won’t be as fast as he once was, will be taking damage, and most likely get outworked to a decision defeat.
Matt Brown has won his last two fights, but that was against Diego Sanchez and Ben Saunders. Not exactly murderers’ row. With a knockout rate of 75% in his fights, I love Miguel to get the job done. I don’t see this line changing too much.
Also, be sure to check out the Overtime Heroics Forums page to join in on the discussion!
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