With training camps being *fingers crossed* only a few weeks away from starting up, it is perfect time to once again comb through the current fantasy football redraft average draft position–or ADP– of all the players and determine three players who I think are going to over-perform and three that i think will under-perform, relative to their current ADP. League’s are won every year, not necessarily by drafting great first round picks; but rather by the owners who are savvy enough to know when to wait and when to pounce on every player, regardless of round. When reading ADP, the number before the decimal is the round, and the number after the decimal is the pick. The ADP used here is for twelve team PPR leagues.
Players who will make you cheer
Darius Slayton | Current ADP: 9.01
This is downright criminal. Slayton is practically being handed the number one receiving job on a team with an improving second year QB. The Giants also did not address receiver as many thought they would, bringing in only moderate competition. A healthy Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram will help take some pressure off of Slayton, but he is set up to produce and the pressure is on. I would understand the hatred here if he wasn’t a dynamic receiver, but the man is 6-1, has 4.39 speed and a better catch rate in 2019 than Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins–per PFF stats.
Slayton also averaged 15.4 yards per catch and eight touchdowns in his rookie season all while playing through a nagging hamstring injury. Now all healed up with an entirely healthy off-season, Slayton has all the makings of a league winning player. His value has not fluctuated as much as some others, holding steady between 8.07 and 9.04.
Drew Lock | Current ADP: 13.06
The last two fantasy football seasons have seen the rise of the quarterback MVP’s. Lamar Jackson in 2019 and Patrick Mahomes in 2018 each performed so far above their draft slot that they won a large amount of leagues for people. Could that trend continue in 2020 with Drew Lock? Just like the two MVP’s, Lock will be heading into his second season with a lot to prove. John Elway made it a point to add weapons to surround Lock with, and boy did he succeed.
By bringing in Melvin Gordon, Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler and beefing up the offensive line, Elway has given Lock zero reason to fail. This is the perfect approach to have with a young and growing quarterback. My prediction is that Lock will use all of these new weapons in conjunction with Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant on his way to a season for the ages, so buy his stock while it’s low. A few weeks ago he was going in the end of the tenth round so things can change quickly with regards to him.
Dare Ogunbowale | Current ADP: Undrafted
Since 2015 in New England, Tom Brady has targeted his receivers in the passing game over 130 times every single year. As Brady has aged, he has become more reliant on shorter passes to compensate for the loss of arm strength. Now down in Tampa, Tom will need that same type of production from his backs. Runners that play with Brady need to be able to pass block and catch passes. Insert Dare Ogunbowale.
With Ronald Jones and rookie Ke’shawn Vaughn not being known as the most capable pass catchers, Ogunbowale really has the chance to shine here. As the Buccaneers third-down back in 2019, he turned his 46 targets into 286 scoreless yards. If he gets 100 targets from the best QB to ever do it, he can easily reach 800 yards receiving and 70 catches. That is the definition of an undrafted steal. When you count in the minimal risk that he would come with as either a late round pick or a waiver wire addition, this one is an easy decision.
Players who will make you cringe
Jonathan Taylor | Current ADP: 4.01
Let me first start by saying this. When it comes to a dynasty draft, I would have no qualms with Taylor going this high or even higher. In 2021-23, Taylor could be one of the best backs in the league and a fantasy sensation. But in regards to a 2020 redraft league, I cannot get on board with this projection. Taylor’s two main issues are pass protection and ball security. Those two problems get rookies put in the doghouse faster than anything. Either that or they never get off the bench at all.
What Taylor has going in his favor is that he had 926 carries in three years at Wisconsin. Not only does that show he is durable, but it also hints that the Colts may want to use him early and often before the “tread on his tires” is worn down and he seems washed, much like Todd Gurley. That may be the case, but Taylor will still have to earn everything he gets. Nyheim Hines isn’t going anywhere as the Colts third-down back, meaning the passing game work for Taylor will be limited even if he can overtake Marlon Mack for the starting Job. The Colts are counting on Taylor to at the very least come in and compete, but in the end, the odds seem stacked against him when it comes to year one production.
J.K. Dobbins | Current ADP: 7.04
Rolling along on the rookie running back hatred tour, we check in with J.K. Dobbins. As part of what seems to be a four-headed monster at running back, J.K. Dobbins is an easy choice for this list. The rushing attempts are simply not going to be there to justify a pick this high. The Ravens have zero reason to stop giving Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards the ball on short yardage situations. They also just spent a 2019 4th round pick on Justice Hill.
If you compare it to the 2008 Ravens, who had just a three-headed monster at running backs, only one of those players even topped 900 yards rushing. I am not only saying to stay away from Dobbins, but to eschew all of the Ravens running backs. It is just too unpredictable and not worth the risk. There are better gambles to take on later picks. Even if Dobbins is the best back available in the seventh, I would just wait until the eighth or ninth and grab Marlon Mack or Matt Breida. Those three players do not have as much of a difference in talent or opportunity as the ADP might suggest.
Ronald Jones | Current ADP: 7.07
Ronald Jones has shown through two years that he is “Consistently inconsistent”. After a 2018 spent with only seven catches, but a 4.8 yards per carry average, he seemingly improved as a pass catcher. He only dropped one pass in 2019 and got 290 of his 305 receiving yards after the catch. He would have qualified as an above average running back on those two stats alone.
So why was Jones so inconsistently used? Even though he had 20 runs of ten plus yards and 60 percent of his yards came after contact, Jones only finished the year with an average of 10.5 fantasy points per game. He had his moments, but Jones was ultimately held beck by his three lost fumbles in crucial situations of games. This led to seven games where Jones failed to crack the eight point mark. That is too inconsistent for a number one back and the Buccaneers seem to agree with that when they drafted Ke’Shawn Vaughn in the third round of this years draft.
Thanks for reading! For more sports content, follow me on Twitter, @JbellSportsTalk and Overtime Heroics. You can read part one of the series here, and check back the first week of August for part three!
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