Is Brayden Point worth Mitch Marner money?

There have been rumors and speculation brewing for awhile now about Mitch Marner‘s new contract. People have been arguing back and forth about how much he’s worth ⁠— even the Toronto Maple Leafs and Mitch Marner haven’t been able to figure it out yet! I’ve seen everything between $8 million all the way to $12 million. Personally, I think he should get what he wants. If he cares more about the money, he should sit back and wait, see what offer sheets come in, then figure it out. But all this talk about Marner being worth north of $10 million per year got me thinking ⁠— how much is Brayden Point worth?

Brayden Point

Photo by Jamie Sabau/NHLI via Getty Images

Just finishing his third season in the league, Brayden Point has demonstrated increasingly improved performance each season. His point totals have grown, as has his on-ice confidence, and he has secured himself as the second-line center in Tampa Bay. He is currently a Restricted Free Agent (RFA) and the Tampa Bay Lightning have already started to address their cap situation to hopefully accommodate a new contract.

2016-17 Season 68 Games Played:

18 goals / 22 assists / 40 points on 122 shots in 17:08 of average time on ice.

2017-18 Season 82 Games Played:

32 goals / 34 assists / 66 points on 217 shots in 19:37 of average time on ice.

2018-19 Season 71 Games Played:

41 goals / 51 assists / 92 points on 191 shots in 18:55 of average time on ice.

I think a big reason for jump in production could be his-line consistency. Thanks to Dobber Hockey’s Frozen Tools we can get a look at how often, and with whom, he was deployed. When we look at the 2017-18 season,

Via Dobber Hockey’s Frozen Tools

Point’s most frequently played line consisted of Yanni Gourde and Ondrej Palat. That line was used 18.09% of the time Point was on the ice. But when we look at the 2018-19 season,

Via Dobber Hockey’s Frozen Tools

that same line was deployed 39.07% of the time he was on the ice. That line was Tampa Bay’s second line with Tyler Johnson and Nikita Kucherov. Before you scream at me, yes, I know that he played with the league’s top scorer. When figuring out future production from a player, it’s always tough, but Tampa could have this line together for the next five years, which is significant.

Just to be thorough, let’s look at power play production and line usage also.

2016-17 Season

5 goals / 7 assists / 12 total power play points

2017-18 Season

5 goals / 6 assists / 11 total power play points

2018-19 Season

20 goals / 15 assists / 35 total power play points

Let’s look at the past two seasons. The 2017-18 season saw Point spend the majority of his power play time on the second unit.

Via Dobber Hockey’s Frozen Tools

and in 2018-19, we saw Point make the jump to the top power play unit and have some immediate success.

Via Dobber Hockey’s Frozen Tools

You can see that the line consistency is there as well. Even though he was on a line with Kucherov, who had an amazing year, they fed off each other. Both guys posted significant jumps in production, and I believe that this can be attributed to their cohesiveness on the ice together.

Mitch Marner

Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images

Mitch Marner also just finished his third full NHL season. He jumped in, and immediately started producing for the Toronto Maple Leafs. He was fifth in the Calder Trophy voting in his rookie season, and has had a great grasp of the NHL level of hockey since he came into the league.

2016-17 Season 77 Games Played:

19 goals / 42 assists / 61 points on 176 shots in 16:49 of average time on ice.

2017-18 Season 82 Games Played:

22 goals / 47 assists / 69 points on 194 shots in 16:23 of average time on ice.

2018-19 Season 82 Games Played:

26 goals / 68 assists / 94 points on 233 shots in 19:49 of average time on ice.

Just looking at the last two seasons point totals, both Point and Marner had very similar production. Now, looking at line frequency for Marner, there is a little difference. In 2017-18 Marner already had the consistency that Point finally got this year.

Via Dobber Hockey’s Frozen Tools

He had over 60% of his on ice time split between two lines, playing alongside seasoned veterans Patrick Marleau, Nazem Kadri, Tyler Bozak and James van Riemsdyk. That’s amazing. That kind of consistency isn’t found very often, until you look at 2018-19.

Via Dobber Hockey’s Frozen Tools

66.71%!! 66.71% of the time Marner was on the ice, it was on this line with Zach Hyman and John Tavares. That level of consistency allows players to really learn how their line mates play and enables them to predict their team mates thoughts, reactions and tendencies. The level of trust that is gained by playing that often together is immeasurable.

Let’s take a look at power play usage for Marner as well.

2016-17 Season

4 goals / 17 assists / 21 total power play points

2017-18 Season

8 goals / 19 assists / 27 total power play points

2018-19 Season

3 goals / 18 assists / 21 total power play points

Same with Point, Marner spent almost his entire power play time on the second line, but Marner’s line mates were almost a guarantee.

Via Dobber Hockey’s Frozen Tools

Yes, you read that right, 82% of the time. You see familiar names on that line. Getting both even strength and power play time with the same guys is fantastic. 2018-19 saw a little change, but the level of consistency for Marner is amazing.

Via Dobber Hockey’s Frozen Tools

57.64% of the time he was on that stacked top line that added Auston Matthews into the mix with Kadri and Tavares. So the consistency was there for Marner even more than Point.

In conclusion

We’ve got a nice comparison of two top young players that play on teams loaded with talent and we saw them both put up great numbers. This illustrates that Point is much more of a goal scorer than Marner, who is the better play maker. Both guys have earned a significant raise, and will likely get one, from their respective teams. But looking at the comparisons in depth, it’s hard to argue that Point hasn’t earned the right to ask for a similar deal than that which Marner is requesting. If I was Point, I would wait to see what happens with the negotiations between Marner and the Maple Leafs before signing anything with Tampa. So, basically YES ⁠— Brayden Point is worth Mitch Marner money.

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