Phillies Mailbag Monday: Edition 2

Why didn’t the Phillies sign Craig Kimbrel or Dallas Keuchel? Don’t they need some help in the bullpen and rotation? – Ryan D.

It seems like ever since Bryce Harper signed with the team, Phillies fans have wanted these two guys. In all honesty, even I wanted the Phillies to go after Keuchel at one point! However, at the end of the day, neither option made much sense for what the Phillies plans are for both the present and future.

Craig Kimbrel wanted a multi-year deal. While this might not seem like a big deal since Kimbrel is such an exceptional closer, it definitely could have backfired on the Phillies down the line. Although Kimbrel currently looks like a top tier closer in baseball, the same might not be said a few years from now. Also, there seems to be several other quality closers that will be available at the trade deadline this year. These names include guys such as Will Smith, Shane Greene, and Greg Holland. Why take such a risk at a high price point when there are cheaper, quality options that are available? The combination of these two factors is what made it the right decision for the Phils to stay away from Kimbrel.

The Dallas Keuchel situation is slightly different. Keuchel was somebody that appealed to many Phillies fans, including myself. His proven track record in Houston along with the fact that he would have provided the Phillies with a solid left-handed starting pitcher were the main attraction to him. However, not signing Keuchel was the right decision due to his similarities to Jake Arrieta, who has struggled to live up to the high expectations that went along with his prior track record when he signed with the Phillies. Both pitchers won the Cy Young Award in 2015. Since then, both pitchers have seen their numbers worsen substantially. According to Fangraphs, in 2015, Arrieta’s ERA was 1.77 and he had a FIP of 2.35. Between 2016 and 2018, Arrieta has downgraded in both categories with an ERA of 3.53 and a FIP of 3.98! In comparison, Dallas Keuchel had an ERA of 2.48 and a FIP of 2.91 during is Cy Young season. In the three seasons thereafter, Keuchel’s numbers worsened as his ERA rose to 3.73 and his FIP went all the way up to 3.79! These similar numbers are likely what caused a red flag to the Phillies front office and ultimately steered them away from signing Keuchel. Why go after Keuchel when you already have a similar pitcher in Arrieta, who is considered by many to be struggling and underachieving? It simply just wouldn’t make much sense.

Overall, although it was fun to dream about the Phillies signing Keuchel and Kimbrel, it just wasn’t a great fit for the Phillies organization.

Since the Phillies are likely going to be buyers at the trade deadline, who are some prospects that will likely be on the way out? – James K.

While I do agree that the Phillies will be buyers at the trade deadline, I don’t believe they’ll be making all of their prospects available in trades. The Phillies will likely be unwilling to trade their top overall prospect, Alec Bohm, who was recently named to the MLB Futures Games during the all-star break festivities. It would also be shocking if the Phillies were willing to move Adam Haseley, their third overall prospect who made his MLB debut recently. With these guys seemingly off-limits, who’s left?

The best prospect the Phillies would have to offer would be Adonis Medina. Medina is a right-handed pitcher who currently ranks as the Phillies second overall prospect. He is known for his ability to throw strikes consistently and projects as a starter at the major league level. As a result, Medina will likely draw the most interest from trade partners. The question then becomes what type of deal would we expect to see him moved in?

Since Medina is a top level prospect within the organization, I’d expect him to only be moved in a deal that would return a non-rental player such as a Robbie Ray, or a deal that included a top tier rental such as Madison Bumgarner. With the Phillies expected to make a few splashes this summer at the trade deadline, don’t be shocked to see Adonis Medina on the move.

Some other players/prospects that could be moved: Spencer Howard, Enyel De Los Santos, JoJo Romero, Nick Williams, Mickey Moniak, Deivy Grullon