NFL DFS: Week One Early Look Ahead

Obviously, there are still training camp injuries, holdouts, positional battles, and depth chart overhauls to consider when looking at first week salaries. There are so many changes over a month in the NFL that we have to be cautious. I would recommend playing Cash Games and Head to Heads in the first week until we can get a feel for how teams are going to perform.

Keep in mind when planning for the main slate that it excludes the Thursday night season opener between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears, as well as Sunday Night Football between the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots. The MNF doubleheader featuring the Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints and Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders are also excluded from the main slate.

NFL Week 1 DFS Quarterbacks First Thoughts

It wouldn’t be hard to guess that the most expensive quarterback on the board is 2018 MVP Patrick Mahomes (7 200$). This is surprising considering his first game is on the road against a potential resurging Jacksonville defense. Tyreek Hill went down with a minor quad injury today, and running back Damien Williams is also banged up. I can see Mahomes in somewhat of a letdown spot, and you know that he will be owned by a substantial amount of teams. I would avoid him for the first week.

Some other big-name starters will be coming up against elite defenses from the season prior. Cleveland Browns QB Baker Mayfield (6 400$) will be at home against a strong Tenessee Titans pass defense. Carolina Panthers star QB Cam Newton (6 500$) will be up against the Rams at home, and second-highest priced QB Andrew Luck (6 700$) will be up against the stingy Chargers defense on the road. All of these options can still break out, but they will force you to pay down elsewhere. They will also be high percentage commodities simply because of the hype surrounding them.

There are some value spots that could allow you to pay up elsewhere. Miami Dolphins QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (4 900$) has continued to impress at training camp. All signs point to him being the starter in week one. We all know Fitzmagic likes to come out strong for three to four weeks. This could be one of those weeks. They are going up against Baltimore, but the Ravens have several free-agent signings on defense that might need time to gel.

However, my favorite spot might be Seattle QB Russell Wilson (6 300$). Wilson will be going up against an already depleted Cincinnati defense at home. Wilson might not be a contrarian play, but he could be reasonably close. Last season the Seahawks were a run-heavy team, which led Wilson to a number of disappointing fantasy starts. This year, they will continue to run the ball, but I believe Wilson will still get the yards he needs to valuable. Plus, he is always a huge threat to use his legs, which is gold in DFS.

Other notable sleepers:

Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson (6 000$) @ Miami
Dallas QB Dak Prescott (5 900$) home against New York Giants
Philadelphia QB Carson Wentz (5 700$) home against Washington

NFL Week 1 DFS Running Backs First Thoughts

I have one general rule when picking my lineups, avoid drama as much as possible. With that rule in mind, there are several big-name running backs that I will probably be avoiding. Running backs like Cowboys Ezekiel Elliot (9 200$), Chargers Melvin Gordon (7 500$), and Rams Todd Gurley (7 900$) are all players I will avoid due to contract disputes, holdouts, and injury. They have the potential to lead a week, but they might also give you zeros. For that high of a price, I prefer to look elsewhere.

Even though there are very few “workhorse” backs left in the NFL, there are still a few with interesting prices. If QB rushing yards is gold in DFS, then touches are the silver. Cincinnati’s Joe Mixon (6 700$) has been clearly defined as the team’s number one option. Similar situation in Minnesota with Dalvin Cook (6 000$), who is looking to rebound after two injury-plagued seasons. Panthers stud RB Christian McCaffrey (8 800$) is the most expensive of the workhorse backs. He has impressive upside considering how often QB Cam Newton likes to throw him the ball.

There are a few running backs that are less expensive but could produce value with their current price tag. One player I like is RB Kerryon Johnson (5 800$) from the Detroit Lions. The Lions have been moving to a run-heavy approach under head coach Matt Patricia. They also cut vulture Theo Riddick and are ready to lean heavily on Johnson. His week one matchup against one of the worst defenses in the NFL, the Cardinals, will surely make him a popular target. Colts running back Marlon Mack (5 600$) is in a similar situation, high volume in a good offense.

Another running back I will be targeting is Buffalo’s Devin Singletary (3 600$). He hasn’t been confirmed as the starter yet, but the way coaches have been talking about him makes me believe he will easily replace LeSean McCoy. Singletary is an explosive, talented back and he will be up against an unproven Jets defense. For his incredibly low cost, I will gladly slot him into my lineup and hope he continues to excel.

Other notable sleepers:

TB RB Ronald Jones (3 900$) home against SF
SF RB Jerick McKinnon (4 300$) @ TB
Cleveland RB Nick Chubb (6 400$) home against Tennesse

NFL Week 1 DFS Wide Receiver First Thoughts

It might just be me, but I find wide receiver to be the toughest position to plan for in DFS. Every week there will be a name no one is aware of that will win a week. This year, the big-name wide receivers are all priced that way. Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill ($7,600) seems overpriced in a road matchup against Jacksonville. He also went down with a minor injury today that could linger. Cleveland receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (8 100$) is starting his first game with his new team and is overpriced for that kind of situation. Another highly talked about player is Philadelphia WR DeSean Jackson (4 500$). I will likely avoid Jackson.

There are a couple of guys that I think could have breakout first weeks. The other Cleveland WR Jarvis Landry (5 600$) could be a sneaky ownership pivot with everyone on Beckham. Jacksonville might be in for a shootout against Kansas City in the first week of the season. This could bring some value for players like Dede Westbrook (4 800$).

There are also a few rookies that have caught my attention. New England’s Mecole Hardman (4 100$) and Seattle’s D.K. Metcalf (4 000$) are two of the most expensive rookies. Personally, I would prefer 49ers WR Deebo Samuel (4 000$) in the plush matchup against the Bucs. Marquise Brown (3 800$) is also getting potential wide receiver one talk in Baltimore.

If there is one name that I wouldn’t be surprised wins some players the week, it would be Cincinnati WR Cody Core (3 000$). With injuries to starting wide receiver AJ Green and John Ross, Core could see significant playing time. One touchdown for a player at that cost already provides exceptional value.

Other notable sleepers:

New York Giants WR Cody Latimer (3 300$) @ Dallas
Arizona WR Christian Kirk (4 700$) at home against Detroit
SF WR Marquise Goodwin (4 000$) @ TB

NFL Week 1 DFS Tight Ends First Thoughts

When it comes to the lowly tight end position, it is tough to not just go with the best guy. The difference between tight end one and tight end ten is so wide that picking the right guy could make or break your team.

Obviously, everyone will be on either Philidelphia TE Zack Ertz (6 100$) or Kansas City TE Travis Kelce (7 100$) in the first week. I couldn’t really say that paying up for them isn’t the right move; they are so much better than most options. San Francisco TE George Kittle (6 600$) was excellent last season, but there are too many questions now that quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is back.

A couple of sleeper tight ends if you are trying to save money are Browns TE David Njoku (3 700$) and Miami TE Mike Gesicki (3 000$). Gesicki will most likely have Fitzpatrick throwing the ball, and he has no competition at his position.

Other notable sleepers:

Indianapolis TE Jack Doyle (3 400$) @ LAC
Detroit TE TJ Hockenson (3 100$) @ Arizona

NFL Week 1 DFS Defenses First Thoughts

Usually what most casual DFS players will do is select a lineup, and then use whatever they have left on a defense. This isn’t always a winning strategy. Sometimes those few extra defensive points could be the difference between a winning and losing week. This first week is the most troublesome when deciding on a defense. There are so many unknowns that it can be kind of a shot in the dark. Most players will base themselves off of what defenses did the year before.

My favorite defense for the week is the Dallas Cowboys (3 500$). They are going up against the absolutely terrible New York Giants. Whether it be Eli Manning or Daniel Jones, you can expect 2-3 interceptions. Baltimore (3 800$) is the most expensive defense, but I expect some regression with all of their new pieces.

Potential sleeper options:

Atlanta (2 400$) @ Minnesota
49ers (2 200$) @ TB

Early week one lineup

Every week I will be throwing out a lineup that I really like. For week one, it will be used in more of a head to head format or some cash games. I doubt I will be playing many GPPs week one.

QB – Russell Wilson 6 300$
RB – Kerryon Johnson 5 800$
RB – Dalvin Cook 6 000$
WR – Tyler Lockett 6 000$
– Deebo Samuel 4 000$
– Dede Westbrook 4 800$
TE – Zach Ertz 6 100$
FLEX – Joe Mixon 6 700$
DST – Cowboys 3 500$

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