OTH- Daily Odds 8/5/19

MLB

4:10 EST Marlins @ Mets – The Mets come into this afternoon’s game winners of nine of their last ten. Jacob deGrom gets the start for the Mets in game one of the double header. deGrom has been dominant since June 1st, posting a 1.97 ERA. He has given up a total of four earned runs in his last five starts (33 innings). The Marlins will start Robert Dugger in this game. Over 20 games in the minors this season, he has a 5.33 ERA and a 1.364 WHIP. In his 7 starts at AAA, his ERA was an astounding 9.34. Expect the Mets to continue their winning ways as they try to climb back into the Wild Card race.

Picks: Mets -1.5 (-160), Mets -0.5 1st 5 (-185), 1st 5 Over 4 (-130)

7:05 EST Brewers @ Pirates – This is a game of two struggling NL Central teams. The Pirates have lost 12 of their last 14, while losing seven of their last eight home games. The Brewers have had a bad road trip so far, going 1-5 against the A’s and Cubs. The Brewers bats have been cold lately, scoring five runs or less in each of their last ten games. They will face Dario Agrazal, who has given up three runs over his two home starts this season, one of them being a 12-2 win over Milwaukee. The Pirates bats have been hot and cold over their recent poor stretch(5 games under 5 runs, 5 games with at least 5 runs), and will get to face a former teammate today, as Jordan Lyles takes the hill for Milwaukee. Lyles had a very good road start in his first Brewers outing, giving up one run in five innings at Oakland. Due to the recent struggles of these teams and the pitching match-up, we like unders in this game. 

Picks: Game Under 10(-115), First 5 Under 5.5(-110), Milwaukee Under 5.5(-125)

7:05 EST Yankees @ Orioles – The Yankees just keep on rolling. They have won six of their last seven and are fresh off of a series sweep over Boston. They now head to Baltimore, where they have scored 63 runs in 7 games this season. The Orioles will start with Gabriel Ynoa, an opener, and then hand the game over to the bullpen. On the season, Ynoa is 1-6 with a 5.55 ERA in 24 appearances. The Yankees will counter with Masahiro Tanaka, who has been awful in recent games. He has given up at least four runs in each of his last four road starts, including giving up 12 in Boston on July 25. Due to the high scoring nature of this series, we like all of the overs today. 

Picks: Game Over 10.5(-110), First 5 Over 6(-110), Orioles Over 3.5(-130), Yankees Over 6.5(-110), Yes to a run in the First (-150)

7:10 EST White Sox @ Tigers – In a battle of struggling teams in the AL Central, the White Sox travel to Detroit to face the Tigers. Today’s pitching matchup features Lucas Giolito and Spencer Turnbull. Turnbull is 3-9 on the season with a 3.65 ERA, but is winless in nine home starts. Lucas Giolito is 6-2 with a 2.76 ERA in 10 road starts. We like the White Sox to win this one.

Picks: White Sox (-129), Sox -0.5 First 5(+105)

7:10 EST Royals @ Red Sox – The Red Sox and the Royals are both limping into todays game with long losing streaks. Rick Porcello will be trying to help the Red Sox snap their seven game losing streak. Unfortunately for the Red Sox teams have been crushing Porcello. In his last seven starts he is allowing an average of 5.1 runs per game. Mike Montgomery was hopeful some new scenery would help turn his season around, that has not been the case. Since his trade he has given up ten earned runs in 11.1 innings of work. Look for both pitchers to get hit hard with the total runs being in double figures.

Picks: Over 11.5 runs (-105), Over 6.5 1st 5 (-120), Red Sox Over 6.5 (-120), Royals Over 4.5 (+105), Yes to a run in the 1st inning (-180)

7:10 EST Angels @ Reds – The Angels travel to Cincinnati, after being swept in the first series of their Ohio road trip. Things won’t get any easier for them as they face the Reds ace in the opener of the series. Luis Castillo is 10-4 on the season with a 2.63 ERA. At home, he is 6-3 with a 2.20 ERA. He has given up one run or less in four of his last six starts, and in four of his last five home starts. In his two interleague starts this season (against Houston and Cleveland), he gave up six hits and three runs over 12 innings of work. The Angels will be opening the game with Taylor Cole, but are expected to turn the game over to LHP Patrick Sandoval. Sandoval went 4-4 in 15 starts in AAA this season, and had an ERA of 6.41. It seems a bit early for this kid to be called up, but the Angels are in dire need of pitching help. The Angels are in free fall mode, losing five of their last six and eight of their last ten games. In addition, they have scored less than four runs in each of their last four games, and in six of their eight road games since the All-Star break. The Reds have won or split four straight series, and look for them to win again tonight.

Picks: Reds -1.5(-105), Reds -0.5 F5 Innings (-145), Angels Under 3.5 (-110)

7:10 EST Marlins @ Mets – In the second game of a doubleheader, the Mets and Marlins will be sending youngsters to the mound. The Mets will send Walker Lockett, who has some very high numbers. His ERA is at 7.82 for his 3 big league games this season. His FIP is at 4.80, which is indeed rather poor. He has yet to make a home start this season for the Mets. Starting for the Marlins will be Sandy Alcantara. Alcantara has struggled lately resulting in the Marlins losing five of his last six starts. In four starts since the All-Star break, he is 0-2 with a 7.89 ERA with opponents batting .300 against him. We like all of the overs in this game, even though it may be a long day at the ballpark for these teams.

Picks: Game Over 9(-110), 5 Inning Over 5(-120), Marlins Over 3.5(-140), Mets Over 4.5(-130)

7:10 EST Rangers @ Indians – Aaron Civale will be making his second big league start today for the Indians. Civale looked good in his first outing pitching six scoreless innings while giving up only two hits. Mike Minor will try to return to form after struggling a bit his last few starts. Minor has allowed 17 earned runs in his last 23 innings with opponents hitting .315 against him. Expect Civale and Minor to battle it out while keeping the score low, with Cleveland getting the win.

Picks: Indians -1.5 (+115), Indians -0.5 1st 5 (-120), Rangers Under 4.5 (-140), Total Runs Under 9.5 (-105)

7:10 EST Blue Jays @ Rays – Charlie Morton and the Rays face off with Jacob Waguespack and the Blue Jays tonight. Charlie Morton has been knocked around in his last few outings allowing 11 earned runs in his last 17.1 innings of work. The good news for him is he pitches great at home going 6-1 with a 2.77 ERA. In his previous start against Toronto Morton allowed just one run. The Blue Jays are looking for a win after losing their last two games to the Orioles. Jacob Waguespack is coming off his best start of the season, however it was against a struggling Kansas City team. Expect the Blue Jays to get a few runs off Morton but not enough to beat him.

Picks: Rays -1.5 (-140), Rays Over 4.5 (-130), Jays Over 2.5 (-140), Over 4.5 1st 5 (-110), Over 8 (-110)

8:00 EST Athletics @ Cubs – The Cubs host the A’s in a series between two teams that had good weekends. The Cubs swept the Brewers, while the A’s swept the Cardinals. Today’s pitching match-Up features Kyle Hendricks and Chris Bassitt. Hendricks was masterful in July, giving up eight earned runs in 32 innings over 6 starts(2.25 ERA). Hendricks has been masterful at Wrigley Field over the course of the season, going 4-2 with a 1.89 ERA in 9 starts. He has yet to give up more than three runs in a home start this season. The A’s send Chris Bassitt to the mound. He has been better at home this season than on the road (3.06 vs. 4.53 ERA). He has, however, given up three runs or less in eight of his 10 road starts. The Cubs are 21 games over .500 at home this season, which only trails the Dodgers, Twins, and Astros. Twelve of the last thirteen Cubs games have had single digit run totals, and eight of the last eleven A’s games have had single digit run totals. We like the Cubs and some unders in this game. 

Picks: Cubs(-157), Game Under 10(-115), First 5 Under 5.5(-110), A’s Under 4.5(-130)

8:10 Braves @ Twins – This game features two great teams with two good pitchers going head to head. Mike Soroka has been dominate for the Braves this year, especially on the road. When pitching outside of Atlanta, Soroka is 6-0 with a 1.20 ERA, with the Braves winning each of his last six road starts. The Braves last loss on the road with Soroka pitching was all the way back on May 25. Jake Odorizzi will get the start for the Twins, and comes into the game 12-5 with a 3.73 ERA. Odorizzi has been hot and cold lately with his last two starts being complete opposites. He has struggled against National League teams this year having allowed nine runs in eleven innings. Expect these two starters to keep the score low with the Braves getting the win.

Picks: Braves (-110), Braves 1st 5 (-115), Under 5.5 1st 5 (-110)

9:40 EST Phillies @ Diamondbacks – This pitching match-Up features Merrill Kelly and Vince Velasquez. Kelly has been horrific in his last two starts, giving up fourteen runs in those two starts. Vince Velasquez is 3-4 on the season in 15 road appearances, with an ERA of 4.60. The Phillies struggled this weekend offensively, and are looking to break out of their recent slump. The Diamondbacks bats are hot after scoring 25 runs in their last two home games, which were against Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin. We like overs in this matchup. 

Picks: Game Over 10(-105), First 5 Over 5.5(-110), Philly Over 4.5(-130), Arizona Over 4.5(-120), Yes to a run in the 1st(-145)

10:10 EST Cardinals @ Dodgers – The Dodgers are welcoming the Cardinals and Michael Wacha back to LA with open arms after his last outing against them, where he allowed eight runs in 3.2 innings. The Cardinals have struggled to score runs lately, averaging just 2.7 runs in their last seven games. Starting for LA will be Tony Gonsolin, who will be making his second start of the season for the Dodgers. Expect the Dodgers to have another big day at the plate against Michael Wacha.

Picks: Dodgers Over 4.5 (-140), Dodgers -.5 1st 5 (-120), Over 5 Total 1st 5 (-125), Over 9.5 Total Runs (-105), Yes to a run in the 1st(-140)

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