OTH- Daily Odds 8/19/19

MLB

7:05 EST Nationals @ Pirates Picks – Nationals 1st 5 (-130), Nationals (-124), Pirates Under 4.5 (125), Nationals Over 4.5 (140)

Supporting Facts

• Joe Ross has won his last three starts, allowing one run and ten hits in 18 innings. 
• Washington is 9-3 in last 12 games, 6-1 in last 7 games.
• Pittsburgh is 7-26 since AS break, 3-11 at PNC Park.
• Washington hasn’t trailed at any time in Ross’ last 3 starts (two of three were on the road)
• Washington is 7-1-4 in their last 12 games after 5 innings. 
• Pittsburgh is 3-5-1 in their last 9 home games after 5 innings.
• Washington has scored six or more runs in six of their last nine games (14 or more in three of their last four)
• Opponents of Pittsburgh have scored six or more runs in four of Trevor Williams’ last six starts
• Pittsburgh has scored three runs or less in six of their last seven home games
• Pittsburgh scored four or less in two of the three games against Washington earlier this season

7:05 EST Royals @ Orioles Picks – Total Over 10.5 (-105), 1st 5 Over 6 (-110), KC Over 4.5 (-125), Orioles Over 5.5 (+100), Yes to Run in 1st (-135)

Supporting Facts

• Jorge Lopez has given up 20 runs over 18 innings in July/August
• KC opponents scored at least six runs in 8 of Lopez’ 11 starts this season
• Baltimore opponents have scored five runs or more in five of John Means’ last six starts
• 1st 5 has been over 6 in Means’ last two starts
• 1st 5 Over 6 is 4-1-1 in Lopez’ last six starts
• Royals Over 4.5 is 5-1 in last six Royals road games
• 1st inning Yes is 9-1 in last 10 Baltimore games

7:10 EST Mariners @ Rays Picks – Mariners +1.5 (-120), Mariners +.5 1st 5 (+105), Mariners Over 3.5 (+100), 1st 5 Over 4.5 (-120), No run in 1st (-125)

Supporting Facts

• TB -1.5 is 3-11 in their last 14 home games
• Mariners +1.5 is 8-2 in their last ten games
• Mariners +1.5 is 9-4 in Marco Gonzales’ 13 road starts this season
• Brendan McKay has given up 16 runs over 18+ innings in his last 4 starts
• 1st 5 Over 4.5 is 3-2 in last 5 McKay starts, 4-2 in last 6 Gonzales starts, and 6-2 in Seattle’s last 8 games
• No run in 1st is 9-5 in last 14 TB home games
• No run in 1st is 6-0 on Seattle’s current road trip

7:10 EST Padres @ Reds Picks – Reds -.5 1st 5 (-125), Reds (-160), Reds Over 4.5 (-125)

Supporting Facts

• Reds are 10-6 in their last 16 home games
• Reds are 6-2 at home in their last 8 games against teams under .500
• Padres are 5-7 in their last 12 road games
• Only one time this season has Bauer allowed more than four earned runs in back to back starts (9 earned runs last outing)
• Reds have scored 5 or more in 10 of their last 16 games

7:45 EST Brewers @ Cardinals Picks – Cardinals (-118), Cardinals 1st 5 (-125), Total Under 9.5 (-110),1st 5 Under 5.5 (-120), Yes Run in 1st (-120)

Supporting Facts

• STL is 13-3 in Dakota Hudson’s last 16 starts
• Milwaukee is 4-6 in Zach Davies’ last 10 starts (including 0-3 in his last three starts)
• STL is 3-0 vs Milwaukee in STL this season
• Milwaukee hasn’t been leading after 5 innings in any of Davies’ starts since the AS break.
• 15 of STL’ last 18 games have been under 9.5
• Nine of Zach Davies’ 12 road starts this season have been under 9.5
• 1st 5 Under 5.5 is 5-1 in Hudson’s last six starts
• Yes in 1st is 6-1 in Hudson’s last seven starts, 3-2 in Davies’ last 5 starts, and 7-2 in last 9 STL games

8:05 EST Angels @ Rangers Picks – 1st 5 Under 6.5 (-120), Total Under 11 (-110), Rangers Under 5.5 (-145), Angels Under 5.5 (-110)

Supporting Facts

• Rangers have averaged 3.1 runs per game over their last 13 games
• Under 6.5 1st 5 is 6-3 in the Rangers last 9
• Total Under 11 is 9-3-1 in the Rangers last 14
• Angels are batting .239 on the year against lefties (.260 against righties)

8:10 EST Tigers @ Astros Picks – Tigers Under 3.5 (-140), Astros Under 6.5 (-125), Total Under 10 (-120)

Supporting Facts

• Tigers have scored 3 or less in 6 of their last 8 games.
• Teams have scored under 4 runs in 6 out of Miley’s last 9 starts
• Astros have scored less than 7 runs in 5 of their last 6 games.
• Edwin Jackson has allowed a total of 3 runs in his last 14.1 innings

8:10 EST White Sox @ Twins Picks – White Sox +1.5 (+110), White Sox +.5 (+125), Total Under 9.5 (+100), Twins Under 5.5 (-110), 1st 5 Under 5.5 (-110)

Supporting Facts

• The White Sox have won Nova’s last five starts(four were under 9.5)
• Nova opponents have scored exactly one run in four of his last five starts (three in the other one)
• Nova gave up one run in six innings during his last start against Minnesota (July 27)
• Gibson has given up one run in each of his starts against the White Sox this season
• Minnesota has lost four of Gibson’s last six home starts

9:40 EST Rockies @ Diamondbacks Picks – Diamondbacks -1.5 (+100), Diamondbacks -.5 1st 5 (-140), Yes run in 1st (+100), Rockies Under 3.5 (+110)

Supporting Facts

• Colorado has lost all 5 of Chi Chi Gonzalez’ starts, four of them by more than one run
• Opponents of Zac Gallen have scored three runs or less in each of his last five starts, and six of his last seven.
• Colorado was swept the last time they were in Arizona, scored three or less in all three games, and lost each game by multiple runs
• Arizona -.5 1st 5 is 2-0 in games started by Gallen
• Colorado has been losing after five innings in four of Gonzalez’ five starts this season
• There has been a run in the first inning of each of Arizona’s last 8 games

Prop Bets

Pit/Wash: Trevor Williams Under 4.5K (-135, struck out 2 or less in his last three games), Juan Soto O2.5(-120, O2.5 in 6 of his last 8 games, .991 OPS against RHP)

KC/Balt: Trey Mancini O2.5(-125, .284 with 19 HR’s against RHP this season), Whit Merrifield O2.5(-120, more HRs against lefties this season with 215 less at bats)

Seat/TB: McKay O6.5 K(-130, struck out at least 7 in each of his last three games), Gonzales O5.5K (-115, struck out six or more in three of last four starts, struck out 9 against TB on Aug 9), Pham O2(-120, .318 BA against lefties)

SD/Cinc: Bauer U8.5K(+100, 6 or less in three of last four starts, 0-3 with a career 6.28 ERA vs SD), Nick Senzel O2(-125, .318 career BA vs LHP)

Mil/STL: Goldschmidt O2.5(-110, .444 career BA vs Zach Davies), Ozuna O2.5(-110, .389 career BA vs Zach Davies)

LAA/Tex: Nomar Mazara Under 2.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-150, .208 vs LHP this season)

Hou/Det: Miley Over 5.5K(-145, Over 5 strikeouts in 5 of his last 7 home starts, Detroit averaged 14K per 9 innings this weekend at Tampa Bay)

CWS/Min: Gibson O6 K(-150, 18 strikeouts in 12 innings vs CWS this season)

AZ/Col: Eduardo Escobar Over 2.5 Hits/Runs/RbIs (+100, has a hit in 6 of last 7 games, a run in 4 of last 7, and an RBI in 4 of last 7)

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